GREECE/TURKEY: TGS CONCERNS DOMINATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ATHENS 000300 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO TU GR SUBJECT: GREECE/TURKEY: TGS CONCERNS DOMINATE REF: ATHENS 148 Classified By: A/DCM Barry Levin for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary and Comment: Athens has kept its ears to the ground and eyes toward Ankara in the month following Karamanlis, historic visit to Turkey (reftel). While we have not seen indications of a serious effort to capitalize on the momentum created by his trip, the GOG is cautiously optimistic that Erdogan's stronger administration could shepherd the way forward if it is successful in its domestic reforms. Regardless of GOT intentions, the GOG is concerned that the Turkish General Staff's reaction to Aegean and Cyprus issues could easily trump any progress in bilateral relations and gauges its responses in that context. In addition to shifting the working-level exploratory talks' focus from process to results, important bilateral issues remain outside the Aegean purview, most notably illegal migration and minority rights, where the two governments can move ahead in the meantime. End Summary and Comment. ¶2. (C) After decades of dancing between active and passive hostilities, the convergence of Greek PM Karamanlis, and Turkish PM Erdogan's administrations has provided both governments with a unique opportunity to take the first, albeit nascent, steps toward normalizing relations. Although Karamanlis' historic January visit to Turkey rendered no concrete results, it has opened the door to future dialogue and the resumption of normal high-level exchanges (reftel). We have seen few indications of GOG effort to build on the visit,s momentum, although FM Bakoyannis' office announced today that she will travel to Turkey shortly after the newly elected Cypriot President Christofias visits Athens next week. ¶3. (C) MFA Turkey desk officer Ioannis Ghinkas explained Karamanlis, burdened by a weak coalition government, lacks the clear popular mandate enjoyed by Erdogan. At this time, any resolution of the "core issues" (the Aegean and Cyprus) will have a steep political price for the Prime Minister. Ghinkas argued that the Karamanlis' ability to maintain momentum on Turkish relations with be determined by his success with the Macedonian name issue. If negotiations go poorly, Karamanlis will not have the political capital to push through an unpopular agenda. Ghinkas warned, "Now is not the time to test the Greek threshold for compromise." ALL EYES ON ANKARA -------------- ¶4. (C) MFA officials are watching Ankara to gauge the next step. Progress, opined Ghinkas, is contingent on Erdogan's ability to successfully implement his domestic agenda." To the point, the GOG is closely monitoring the Turkish General Staff's (TGS) reaction and Erdogan's potential to countermand it. Ghinkas explained that many in the MFA believe Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) abdicated Greek and Cypriot policy to the TGS and focused its priorities on improving relations with its Middle East neighbors and domesti MFA A2 Cyprus Department Director Yannakakis noted the MFA is particularly focused on the TGS' response to pro-reunification Christofias' election victory in Cyprus. Yannakakis added, "A change in the Cyprus government will not mean much if the Turkish side (TGS) sticks to its current position." AEGEAN WAR OF THE WORDS -------------- ¶5. (C) TGS postings on its web side claiming GOG violations in the Aegean, including charges of increased Greek territorial infringements, have heightened anxiety in Athens. On February 1, 2008, the GOG released its end-of-year statistics on Turkish military territorial violations. The report asserts the Turkish military committed 1,289 airspace and 60 maritime infringements in 2007; a "significant increase" over the previous year. Ghinkas told us that MFA debated the merit of publishing the data, knowing it would only heighten tensions. In the end, he noted, the GOG had no choice but to oblige public pressure to officially respond to the TGS accusations. ¶6. (C) Ghinkas dismissed both sides, claims of increased maritime violations around the Imia/Kardak islands as nothing more the result of a good fishing season. Ghinkas bemoaned the Turkish accusations of the growing frequency of Greek Coast Guard escorts, noting their presence is as much to prohibit the Greek fishermen from taking "aggressive actions" as it is to protect. He added that, given political sensibilities, the GOG cannot take official steps control the fishermen. Regarding airspace, Ghinkas reported that 60 percent of Turkish violations occurred within six nautical miles of Greek territory. On those occasions, Ghinkas said the Greek Air Force was "obliged" to respond and conducted interdictions in "discreet" manner so as not to provoke another incident -- not the "harassment" alleged by the TGS. SPECKHARD