THREATS TO DISQUALIFY LUGO

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000079

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PASS TO WHA/BSC KREAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2028
TAGS: PGOV PREL PA
SUBJECT: THREATS TO DISQUALIFY LUGO

REF: A. ASUNCION 894


B. ASUNCION 722

Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) The Colorado Party's focus -- and with it the media
spotlight -- has shifted from its disputed primary elections
to confronting presidential hopeful and resigned Catholic
bishop Fernando Lugo following the January 20 announcement
that presidential candidate Blanca Ovelar had been declared
the winner of the Colorado primary. A flurry of news stories
January 24 and 25 reported the Colorados may challenge Lugo's
presidential candidacy on the grounds that the Church has not
recognized his December 2006 resignation as bishop of San
Pedro Department (reftels A and B). Colorado vice
presidential candidate Carlos Maria Santacruz told the press
January 26 that the Church's ongoing refusal to sanction
Lugo's unilateral defrocking nullifies his eligibility to run
for president because the constitution prohibits "ministers
of any religion" from seeking the presidency. However,
President Nicanor Duarte Frutos and close ally Senator Juan
Carlos Galaverna -- leaders of Ovelar's "oficialista"
Colorado faction -- denied January 26 and 28 that the
Colorados would challenge Lugo's candidacy.


2. (SBU) The Church's unwillingness to legally separate Lugo
from the clergy leaves him vulnerable to assaults on his
political bonafides as well as to a legal challenge by the
Colorados. While the Church has avoided commenting on Lugo's
status -- the title of bishop, unless excommunicated, is a
lifetime commitment by canonical law -- some clergy members
have fueled opposition to Lugo's candidacy by publicly
criticizing him. Alto Parana Bishop Rogelio Livieres Plano
told the press January 27 that Lugo was "a dagger thrust into
the body of the Church."


3. (C) COMMENT: While Lugo held a 45% to 22% lead over
Ovelar in a December 2007 public opinion poll, current
speculation suggests that Ovelar has nearly closed that gap.
Despite repeated threats to take legal action to disqualify
him, the Colorados can only now challenge Lugo since he
formally registered his candidacy on February 1. Colorado
comments about his legal ability to run have served as test
balloons to gauge public opinion on Lugo's eligibility.
Initial public reaction reveals that a challenge to Lugo's
candidacy would be met with social protests organized by his
supporters. Colorado insiders told PolOff January 30 that
opposition groups based in San Pedro had threatened to launch
widespread road blockades and foment large-scale protests in
Asuncion if the Colorados move to impugn Lugo. While Lugo's
candidacy could still be challenged before the February 6
deadline, many political analysts believe the threats are
idle, since the Colorados stand to benefit if the opposition
vote is split amongst three candidates. END COMMENT.

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