TRADE-TALK: PARAGUAY'S OPPOSITION IN THE WTO

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000691 SIPDIS WHA/FO MCMULLEN, WHA/BSC DRUCKER, FRIEDMAN, DASCHBACH, PASS TO USTR DUCKWORTH, SHACKLEFORD, TAGLIANI PASS TO COMMERCE COOK E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/08/2027 TAGS: EFIN PGOV EIND ECON EINV ETRD PREL PA SUBJECT: TRADE-TALK: PARAGUAY'S OPPOSITION IN THE WTO Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The new Paraguayan Government of Fernando Lugo is soon to decide whether to lift Paraguay's three-year old opposition in the WTO to U.S. requests for waivers for AGOA, CBERA, and ATPA trade preference programs. Commerce Minister clearly wants to reverse Paraguay's position. However, MFA officials seek first concrete signals from the U.S. to "guarantee" Paraguay's insertion in any future trade program. Visiting DAS McMullen cautioned against anything suggesting "extortion" and emphasized October 1 that a first move by Paraguay is a pre-condition for any closer trade talks. The GOP understood, conceding that it is reasonable for the U.S. to seek a bilateral solution that does not lend credibility to the perception of a trade-off. jAQQ&(ne-dry Paraguay in August, Heisecke characterized as a worrisome trend Venezuela's push to grow its influence in Paraguay's economy. The Paraguayans acknowledged the benefits of the current Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) program, but urged inclusion of textiles and a modification of the handicrafts exemption. In an upbeat, candid discussion, GOP demonstrated a sense of urgency in resolving the WTO impasse. Paraguay seeks to expand its markets to sustain high growth and looks to the U.S. market as a significant opportunity. President Lugo is strongly considering whether to lift Paraguay's opposition in the WTO before the October 27 meeting with President Bush. The USG should be ready to signal the opportunity to build closer commercial and political ties with the new Lugo administration. END SUMMARY. -------------- --- THE WILL TO WORK IT OUT AND THE VALUE OF SIGNALS -------------- --- ¶3. (SBU) Senior representatives from the Ministry of Industry and Commerce (MIC) and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) participated in an October 1 working breakfast hosted by the Ambassador with WHA/DAS McMullen to discuss Paraguay's opposition in the WTO to U.S. requests for waivers for trade preference programs. Led by MIC Minister Martin Heisecke, the GOP team included: Vice Minister of Commerce Gladys Bareiro, MFA Vice Minister of Economic Relations and Integration Oscar Rodriguez Campuzano, MFA General Director of Economic Relations Raul Cano, Senior Advisor to Minister Heisecke Guillermo Sosa, MFA Director of Economic Policy Marcelo Scappini, and Director of Paraguay,s Export Promotion Agency Guillermo Alcaraz. Ambassador, DAS McMullen, DCM, and Econoff represented U.S. interests. ¶4. (C) Minister Heisecke made clear that the new Lugo government wants to lift Paraguay's opposition in the WTO to U.S. waiver requests for ATPA, AGOA, and CBERA. He expressed a strong willingness to solve the situation, and great urgency in quickly moving forward. The other GOP participants echoed Heisecke's words. Professing a great admiration for the U.S., Heisecke was candid about Paraguay's limitations, and emphatic about how important it is for Paraguay to gain increased access to the U.S. market--"it is one of the best options for us to promote job creation and reduce poverty... what we want is not aid but trade, the opportunity to compete." (NOTE: Heisecke traveled to the U.S. in July on a pre-presidential inauguration IVP trip, and came back clearly energized by talks with USTR. END NOTE.) Such an opportunity, he indicated, could turn into one of the economic growth anchors of President Lugo's administration. ¶5. (C) MFA officials argued that Paraguay needs concrete signals from the U.S. on trade to build the necessary political capital for such an about-face in GOP policy. Signals about increased market access, Heisecke underscored, would boost President Lugo's job creation and poverty reduction priorities. ¶6. (C) Paraguay seeks, Heisecke explained, equitable and comparable U.S. market access treatment, and noted that no one benefits from Paraguay,s position in the WTO. Heisecke asked about Paraguay's options for an expanded trade preference package (an ATPDEA-like package, a FTA, a TIFA), and affirmed that unlike other countries in the region that benefit from trade preference packages, Paraguay is and will continue to be a friend of the U.S. Heisecke said it is difficult for him to understand why the USTR has instructed to extend ATPDEA for Bolivia--despite Bolivia just expelling the U.S. Ambassador--while Paraguay lacks comparable market access to the U.S. -------------- PARAGUAY,S FIRST MOVE -------------- ¶7. (C) DAS McMullen emphasized that a first move by Paraguay would be required to lay the groundwork for any potential closer trade and commercial relations. He explained that exploring a trade preference package takes time and involves several USG stakeholders, including USTR and Congress. Heisecke alluded to a U.S. strategic lead in the process, and suggested that the U.S., as the larger trading partner, make the first move. ¶8. (C) McMullen described a growing interest in the U.S. in Paraguay, referencing Secretary Gutierrez' and A/S Shannon's visits, the October 27 meeting between President Lugo and President Bush, the upcoming Congressional delegation led by Representative Engel, and a possible USTR visit. McMullen noted the importance of Paraguay placing the WTO issue in the context of its desires to broaden the bilateral relationship to include many other economic and political elements. -------------- LOOKS LIKE EXTORTION -------------- ¶9. (C) McMullen explained that Paraguay,s position in the WTO could be perceived by agencies and policy-makers in the USG as "extortion" to get additional trade preferences. MFA Vice Minister Campuzano and Director of Economic Policy Scappini reasoned that a solution needs to balance bilateral interests in a multilateral context. The MFA officials conceded that Paraguay's position could be perceived as extortion, and opined that it is reasonable for the U.S. to seek a bilateral solution that does not lend credibility to the perception of a trade-off. All other GOP participants echoed support for these assertions, and expressed a sense of urgency in solving the current impasse because, for commerce and trade relations, Paraguay needs the U.S. more than the U.S. needs Paraguay. -------------- A WORRISOME TREND -------------- ¶10. (C) Heisecke asserted that one of Paraguay's strongest and closest commercial and trade partners at this juncture should be the U.S. Unfortunately, he confided, commercial spaces are opening for other countries that present potential risks to Paraguay. Referencing the diesel supplied by Venezuela on an emergency-consignment arrangement at the time of Lugo's inauguration in August, Heisecke shared his growing concern over Venezuela's push to influence Paraguay's economy. -------------- ABOUT GSP AND THE CRAFTSMANSHIP EXEMPTION -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Heisecke noted that the GSP program has greatly benefited Paraguay, but urged inclusion of additional products. In the textile sector, for instance, Heisecke explained that Paraguay is positioned to attract investment and wants to promote this labor-intensive industry. (NOTE: According to a 2007 USTR briefer on Paraguay GSP utilization, Paraguay's 2006 and first nine months of 2007 use of GSP benefits was well above the world average of 87.9 percent, with utilization rates of 98.2 and 99 percent, respectively. END NOTE.) ¶12. (SBU) Heisecke also alluded to the handicraft exemption given to Paraguay, explaining that it did not have the desired impact because the majority of goods included are goods that Paraguayan artisans have little or no experience producing. Heisecke suggested modifying the exemption. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) COMMENT: In a very open, upbeat, and candid discussion, the government took in U.S. reservations, and demonstrated a sense of urgency in resolving the impasse. It was clear that Paraguay understands that it needs to reverse its WTO position to create the conditions for further dialogue on trade. As members of Lugo,s Economic Cabinet and leading actors in the process, the MIC and MFA team unambiguously expressed their willingness to reverse Paraguay's position. But the MFA does not wish to backtrack and then be left "empty-handed", thus the emphasis on "signals". Paraguay seeks to expand its markets to sustain high growth and looks to the U.S. market as a significant opportunity. This message is consistent with U.S. interests in building closer commercial and political ties with the Lugo administration while reducing the influence of countries that undermine U.S. interests in the region. ¶14. (C) COMMENT (CONTINUED): The final decision to lift the opposition to the waivers rests with President Lugo. Post believes that Lugo is strongly considering instructing his Ambassador in Geneva to reverse Paraguay,s position in the WTO prior to his October 27 meeting with President Bush. It would behoove the U.S. to be ready with a supportive package as we seek to build closer political, commercial and trade relations. END COMMENT. ¶15. DAS McMullen did not have an opportunity to clear this cable before departure. Please visit us at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/asuncion AYALDE