COLORADOS' ELECTION TRIBUNAL DECLARES OVELAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000048

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PASS TO WHA/BSC KREAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PA
SUBJECT: COLORADOS' ELECTION TRIBUNAL DECLARES OVELAR
PRIMARY WINNER

REF: ASUNCION 37

Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Colorado Party has declared President
Duarte's chosen successor, Blanca Ovelar, as the party's
candidate for April's presidential elections. Former Vice
President Castiglioni, however, has legally appealed to block
Ovelar's formal insciption as the Colorado candidate,
claiming that significant fraud in the voting and
vote-counting robbed Castiglioni of victory. The Colorado
Party's ongoing crisis will increasingly damage the party's
ability to win in April -- much less to be seen, domestically
or internationally, as winning freely and fairly. END
SUMMARY.


2. (U) The Colorado Party's Election Tribunal (TEP)
officially declared January 20 Blanca Ovelar as the narrow
winner of the December 16 presidential primary over rival
Luis Castiglioni. After more than one month's delay, the TEP
ruled that Ovelar won by a margin of 4,020 votes over
Castiglioni. According to the TEP, Ovelar secured 366,722
votes (45.04 percent),Castiglioni 362,702 votes (44.55
percent),Jose Alderete 41,058 votes (5.04 percent) and Juan
Ybanez 8,892 votes (1.09 percent). Candidates from Ovelar's
Progressive Colorado Movement ("oficialistas") for the
Senate, Chamber of Deputies, Mercosur Parliament, and
governships outpolled candidates from Castiglioni's Colorado
Vanguard Movement by over 40 percent (1,388,554 to 991,267
votes). (NOTE: By Castiglioni's separate count, his ticket
was ahead by several thousand votes before the TEP suspended
vote counting in December. END NOTE.) The oficialistas
celebrated their victory January 21 and called on Castiglioni
to concede defeat and unite behind Ovelar.


3. (U) Castiglioni and his supporters continue to claim
victory and refuse to recognize Ovelar's "crowning" by the
TEP Castiglioni and his backers have publicly denounced
alleged voting irregularities, fraud in the vote counting,
exclusion of pro-Castiglioni elements from the TEP and
internal conflicts of interest among remaining TEP members
that all favored the oficialistas (reftel). Castiglioni has
filed suit before the national Electoral Board (TSJE),
seeking to overturn the TEP's decision. Castiglioni has
publicly told CNN and other media that he will provide the
TSJE evidence that as many as 30,000 votes were stolen from

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him. He has also stated publicly he will free his supporters
to vote as they wish in the April presidential election
(i.e., they can choose between Ovelar and various opposition
candidates or boycott),but that he personally will vote a
blank ballot in protest.


4. (U) In anticipation of the TEP's decision, over 10,000
Castiglioni supporters gathered January 18 in Asuncion
(reftel) to show their support for Castiglioni and to
denounce the oficialistas, singling out President Duarte, TEP
President Oscar German LaTorre, and Senator Juan Carlos
Galaverna for allegedly manipulating the election in Ovelar's
favor. (NOTE: Galaverna publicly admitted January 12 that
he helped orchestrate electoral fraud during the 1992
Colorado primary. END NOTE.) In a rare display of
inter-party solidarity, Beloved Fatherland Party (PPQ)
President Pedro Fadul and Liberal (PLRA) Senator Rafael
Filizzola were among opposition leaders who spoke at the
demonstration alongside Castiglioni to denounce "oficialista"
Colorado fraud. (NOTE: The demonstration was peaceful.
Some Castiglioni supporters traveling from Ciudad del Este to
attend the demonstration had been temporarily delayed by
police transportation authorities who claimed that their
busses were not authorized to travel via that route.
Castiglioni supporters subsequently blocked the highway until
authorities relented and let them pass. END NOTE.) Duarte,
Galaverna, LaTorre and others appeared at a simultaneous
"oficialista" event that evening in support of Ovelar.

COMMENTS
========

5. (C) COMMENTS: The TEP's ruling surprises absolutely no
one; President Duarte, Senator Galaverna and others were
publicly stating that the TEP would declare Ovelar the winner
-- and by some 4,000 to 5,000 votes -- days before the TEP
actually finished officially counting the votes. Castiglioni
has indicated that, should the TSJE (known to favor Duarte)
not to nullify the TEP's ruling, he will appeal to the
national Supreme Court. Both the TSJE and Supreme Court are
widely seen not as neutral arbiters but as sympathetic to the
oficialistas, and Castiglioni faces an uphill battle to
overturn the Colorado primary results. The legal appeals also

must be resolved quickly, as February 1 is the deadline for
inscribing official party candidates for the presidential
elections. Should that not be possible, the TSJE can be
expected to slip the election date several weeks past the
current April 20. (The Constitution requires elections
between 90 and 120 days before the August 15 inauguration
date.)


6. (C) COMMENTS (Cont.): The Colorados internal crisis is
not over; it has simply evolved. While Ovelar is the
presumptive Colorado presidential candidate, Castiglioni
could still alter the election landscape. If he decides to
concede defeat and unites in support of Ovelar -- something
he has vowed not to do -- he would greatly strengthen the
party's position going into the general elections. If
Castiglioni continues his fight and divides the party -- or
if he decides to back an opposition candidate -- he would
increase the likelihood that the opposition will win the
upcoming presidential election. While Castiglioni wants to
ensure his political future as a Colorado and avoid
contributing to the Colorados' first electoral defeat in 61
years, he must choose whether to accept what he considers to
be fraudulent election results or continue his fight against
perceived electoral fraud that could further damage the party
and end the Colorados' political dominance. Given the sorry
spectacle of vote fraud on display for the past month -- and
the bitter taste that dispute is leaving in the mouths of
many observers, Colorados and non-Colorados alike --
Castiglioni just may have decided that the Colorados
oficialistas have already jeopardized the party's future, no
matter what he does now.

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