COLORADO DEMONSTRATION PLANNED FOR JANUARY 18

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000037

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2028
TAGS: PREL PGOV PA
SUBJECT: COLORADO DEMONSTRATION PLANNED FOR JANUARY 18


Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Colorado Party presidential pre-candidate Luis
Castiglioni announced his supporters will hold a "massive"
demonstration late January 18 in support of electoral
justice. In light of President Duarte's January 15 maneuvers
to maintain control of the National Electoral Court (TSJE) by
removing two Castiglioni-inclined officials, Castiglioni
alleges that President Duarte is perpetrating fraud against
his faction to clear the way for a Blanca Ovelar victory.
(For their part, the Duarte-backed President of the TSJE
stated they prevented a "coup d'etat against the nation.")
Castiglioni called on the Liberal and Beloved Fatherland (PQ)
parties to join the January 18 demonstration, and met
separately with Liberal-backed presidential candidate
Fernando Lugo and PQ candidate Pedro Fadul January 16 to
negotiate a deal -- their support for his January 18 march in
exchange for his support for their efforts to impeach new
TSJE President Rafael Dendia and his pledge not to support

SIPDIS
Ovelar should she become the Colorado candidate. While he
reportedly did not obtain opostion commitments to come out
for his rally, post has been told he did obtain private
support to fight to restructure the TSJE and to pursue
Senator Galaverna, Colorado kingmaker and corruption-hound,
for his public admission of orchestrating electoral fraud in
the party's previously most divisive internal elections, in

1992.


2. (C) COMMENT: With the Colorado Party's Electoral Tribunal
set to announce Blanca as the Party's presidential candidate
January 21, Castiglioni is making a last-ditch effort to save
his campaign via public pressure. Castiglioni's camp knows
that President Duarte's control of the National Electoral
Court and the Supreme Court effectively render judicial
appeals futile. While most politicos believe Castiglioni may
have won the primary by a narrow margin, they also believe
that Ovelar will soon be declared the winner, causing many
Paraguayans to have deja vu of the 1992 Colorado primary.
(NOTE: Exit polls from the December 1992 primary showed Luis
Maria Argana to be the clear winner, but the Colorado
electoral tribunal stopped counting votes for several days
before declaring Juan Carlos Wasmosy the party's nominee.
(This occureed after moving the vote count to a military
cuartel controlled by then-Army General Lino Oviedo.) END
NOTE). While Ovelar may be starting to show signs of fatigue
at being "boxed in" by Duarte and Galaverna (septel),
President Duarte does not appear willing to negotiate or
concede defeat. Should Ovelar break with Duarte or otherwise
prove not stalwart enough, the Plan B for Duarte and
Galaverna appears to be to throw their significant weight
behind UNACE candidacy of (now-retired) General Oviedo. This
much is clear: the longer the party continues in its current
self-destruct mode, the more likely its 61-year rule will end
this year. END COMMENT.

Please visit us at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/asuncion

CASON