COLORADOS CAN'T COME TO TERMS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000032

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2027
TAGS: PREL PGOV PA
SUBJECT: COLORADOS CAN'T COME TO TERMS


Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick;
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) With the results of the December 16 Colorado Party
presidential primary still pending, the ruling party's
internal conflict between supporters of Luis Castiglioni and
President Duarte's hand-picked successor, Blanca Ovelar, is
intensifying. Both sides continue to claim victory, although
the Colorado Tribunal has tabulated only around 85 percent of
elections results. (NOTE: The Tribunal has closed
periodically due to claims that its president, Oscar LaTorre,
who remains on the government payroll, is biased in favor of
Ovelar. END NOTE). Castiglioni's faction alleged fraud by
the "oficialistas," or Ovelar's supporters, and challenged
approximately 35 of roughly 5,500 electoral acts in the
National Electoral Court. Colorado Party president (and
third-place finisher in the primary) Jose Alderete has
attempted to mediate the dispute but has not made any headway.


2. (SBU) Ovelar supporter and Minister of Public Works
Rogelio Benitez said January 14 that the oficialistas "will
not permit Castiglioni to break the democratic process in
Paraguay and will take the streets to defend Ovelar's
victory." President Duarte swore that "over my dead body
will they steal even one of our votes." Senator Juan Carlos
Galaverna, who became Ovelar's "spokesman" last week,
confessed January 8 to orchestrating fraud in the 1992
Colorado primary which led to the defeat of Luis Maria Argana
by eventual Colorado nominee and President Juan Carlos
Wasmosy. Castiglioni, in turn, released a "manifesto"
January 14 which stated that his movement "is ready to
mobilize nationally to defend its victory." Colorado
officials have floated the idea of postponing the April 20
elections in light of the February 1 deadline to register
candidates; opposition leaders have publicly rejected that
possibility.


3. (C) COMMENT: We are increasingly concerned about the
possibility of an unfair Colorado primary result, and
specifically, about widespread rumors that President Duarte's
faction will steal the election on behalf of Ovelar. This is
no longer about vote counting, but about President Duarte
hanging onto power. With each passing day, it seems less
likely that President Duarte will allow Ovelar to concede
defeat. Likewise, Castiglioni insists he won the Colorado
nomination despite alleged oficialista fraud. Official
results-- based on "closed-door" counting-- were scheduled to
be released January 10 and then re-scheduled for January 14;
it now seems likely an announcement will be made within a
week. Given the possibility of civil protests surrounding the
announcement, approximately 30 police officers have been
posted outside the Colorado Party electoral tribunal in
Asuncion. END COMMENT.

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