ARCHBISHOP CUQUEJO ON LUGO AND THE ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000273

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

WHA/FO; WHA/BSC MDRUCKER, BFRIEDMAN, KBEAMER; NSC DFISK

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PA
SUBJECT: ARCHBISHOP CUQUEJO ON LUGO AND THE ELECTION

Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Asuncion's Archbishop Cuquejo told Pol/Econ
Chief April 23 he believes the Catholic Church will neither
ex-communicate president-elect Fernando Lugo nor accept his
resignation from the clergy, but would deal with Lugo as
Paraguay's president. He said the Colorado Party's April 20
defeat was "inevitable" and that former vice president Luis
Castiglioni would be the key to Colorado renewal. Cuquejo
said the political transition period would be difficult for
Lugo, and urged the USG to "keep him close." One of the
country's best political analysts, the Archbishop will likely
serve as a positive influence on major political leaders such
as Lugo and former vice president Luis Castiglioni (also a
devout Catholic) in coming months. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Archbishop Pastor Cuquejo told Poloffs April 23 he
believes the Church will neither ex-communicate
president-elect Fernando Lugo nor accept his resignation from
the clergy, but would deal with Lugo as Paraguay's president.
He stated that the Church still considers Lugo -- who is
currently designated by the Church as bishop emeritus of San
Pedro -- a "brother." The Archbishop said the Church's
position would support separation of the church from
politics. He hoped Lugo would never again "act" as a
Catholic bishop.


3. (C) Cuquejo stated that the Colorado Party's April 20
defeat was "inevitable." He said that he predicted to the
Ambassador two years ago that the Colorados would fall in
this election, not due to ideological motives but because of
an overwhelming desire for change. Cuquejo said the rupture
in the Colorado Party was necessary to "cleanse" it, and he
believes that President Duarte had lost popular support,
calling him "isolated." (NOTE: Duarte will enter the next
Congress as a senator. END NOTE.) The Archbishop termed two
factors key to the election: The efforts of the OAS and IFES
election observers; and Colorado presidential candidate
Blanca Ovelar's concession speech affirming her commitment to
the democratic process. He thanked the USG for supporting
the election observers' mission, and said he was pleased with
their performance. He also said that he was proud of Ovelar
for overcoming strenuous pressures from President Duarte,
Senator Juan Carlos Galaverna, and other Colorado leaders to
contest the election results.


4. (C) The Archbishop told Pol/Econ Chief that he holds
Castiglioni in high regard and that Castiglioni would be the
key to any renewal of the Colorado Party. Cuquejo said
Castiglioni is an "intelligent and honest" man who could
reform the Colorados (NOTE: Castiglioni is an active member
of Opus Dei. END NOTE). He prognosticated that
Castiglioni's faction would play a central role in shaping
the Colorados as they emerge from this defeat, although he
advised Castiglioni to put national interests ahead of the
party's. Convinced that Castiglioni will remain a key
Colorado leader, the Archbishop stated he was trying to
arrange a one-on-one meeting between Castiglioni and Lugo --
minus their handlers -- to help them start a dialogue.


5. (C) Cuquejo said that the political transition period
would be difficult for Lugo, and urged the USG to "keep him
close." He contended that the campesino groups would return
to protesting as usual after the August 15 inauguration but
said Lugo was "too smart" to deal with them by doling out
cash. The Archbishop, who worked with Lugo for many years,
believes that Lugo is an intelligent man who will be kept on
track by the Liberal Party. He also said Lugo's vice
president-elect, Federico Franco, would likely "call all of
the shots."


6. (C) COMMENT: One of the country's best political
analysts, the Archbishop will likely serve as a positive
influence on major political leaders such as Lugo and
Castiglioni during Paraguay's political transition. If
Cuquejo can draw on his spiritual authority as head of
Paraguay's Catholic Church to bring Lugo and Castiglioni
together, he may be the catalyst behind the first political
alliance of Lugo's government. END COMMENT.

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