THINGS YOU SHOULD KNOW ABOUT OVIEDO BUT WERE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 ASUNCION 000261 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 3.3 (X1,X6) TAGS: PINR PREL SNAR PINS PGOV PA XM SUBJECT: THINGS YOU SHOULD KNOW ABOUT OVIEDO BUT WERE AFRAID TO ASK REF: A. 1994 ASUNCION 4562 ¶B. 1993 ASUNCION 1463 ¶C. 1993 ASUNCION 1412 ¶D. 1994 ASUNCION 943 ¶E. 1995 ASUNCION 42 ¶F. 1991 ASUNCION 4107 ¶G. ASUNCION 239 ¶H. 1994 ASUNCION 4573 ¶I. 1993 ASUNCION 10 ¶J. ASUNCION 256 ¶K. 2005 ASUNCION 728 ¶L. 1993 ASUNCION 3238 ¶M. 1994 ASUNCION 381 ¶N. 1997 ASUNCION 2128 ¶O. 1993 ASUNCION 2633 ¶P. 1993 ASUNCION 2900 ¶Q. 1995 ASUNCION 1606 Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) A review of much Embassy reporting since the early 1990's reveals a fairly consistent description of General Lino Oviedo's dominant personality traits: a strong, messianic leader with great ambition and perhaps some mental instability, undemocratic and violent tendencies, and a knack for deception and manipulation. A pragmatist who views relations with the United States as a necessary evil, Oviedo has both assumed anti-American positions and cravingly sought U.S. blessings. A populist, Oviedo's sympathies lie more with the authoritarian right than with the left. Given his years of exile and prison, the Embassy has had little or no contact with Oviedo until recently, making it all the more difficult to gauge his current intentions. While the presidential race remains close, Oviedo places a fairly consistent third in opinion polls. If elected, Oviedo would personify "the devil you know" adage. For, unless he was rehabilitated by his time in the Brazilian and Paraguayan correctional systems, the Oviedo of today is the Oviedo of yesterday. END SUMMARY. -------------- PERSONALITY PLUS -------------- ¶2. (C) Retired General Lino Oviedo's strong leadership style -- "a la caudillo" -- is obvious upon first meeting. He doesn't like second place, and he doesn't like to be told what to do. An example: When then-President Wasmosy passed a 1994 law proscribing political activity by police/military officials, Oviedo said "a person capable of... (silencing the military) has yet to be born in Paraguay. They want us to shut up and put our tails between our legs... Whether they like it or not, (the Paraguayan military) is the most firm and iron-willed defender of this democracy." Congress voted to condemn Oviedo's statements (ref A). His current advisors complain that he cannot be "handled" and that he frequently gets carried away and strays from his talking points, surprising his own team. Oviedo began giving a toast at a 1993 birthday party and ended his speech nearly called for a revolution (ref B). ¶3. (S) Past Embassy reporting indicates that Oviedo is extraordinarily ambitious and power hungry. In 1993, Oviedo declared that the Colorado Party would win with or without the necessary votes (ref C). In the same year, he said "our (Armed Forces') decision is to govern together with the glorious and immortal Colorado party forever and ever... like it or not, no matter who it pleases, bothers or hurts, no matter who may protest." Following his speech, Oviedo visited all of the military's units, calling for a coup if the Colorados began to lose the May 9, 1993 national elections (ref B). In 1994, this Embassy reported Oviedo's step-by-step efforts to eliminate potential rivals and accrue additional civilian power (ref D). ¶4. (S) Oviedo strongly believes himself to be a representative of and "man of the people." He has called himself the "chief bulwark of democracy" and its primary defender (ref E). (NOTE: Not only does previous Embassy reporting call Oviedo "undemocratic," but it describes him in 1991 as the major threat to democracy (ref F). END NOTE). Oviedo said in 1995 that without him, President Wasmosy "would fall within 90 days" (ref E). Oviedo is also known for having a "messianic" complex, believing that he alone can solve Paraguay's problems (ref A). ASUNCION 00000261 002 OF 004 ¶5. (C) Oviedo has been described as crazy, delusional, and emotional. Several military officials called him "crazy" in 1993, which is echoed throughout Embassy reporting by civilians who came into contact with him. A former Embassy Asuncion PolCouns said Oviedo used to throw elaborate theme parties and forced guests to come in costume (one such party was "set" in first century Rome). There were also reports that Oviedo obligated his officers to release their wives from their vows of chastity in order to "wife swap." Oviedo is also known for his tendency to be emotional, even tearful at times. Oviedo has also been described as being immensely vain (ref F),allegedly having plastic surgery (including hair plugs) prior to launching his 2008 presidential campaign. ¶6. (C) Oviedo is known for his violent tendencies (ref G, which discusses his role in the Argana assassination and several coup attempts) and for using a combination of charm and threats to get what he wants. He has frequently engaged in physical intimidation of his opponents and the press. An example: A pro-President Wasmosy daily newspaper did a spoof story on Paraguay's April Fools' Day equivalent in 1994. The story said Wasmosy had ordered Oviedo into retirement and that Oviedo had commenced a hunger strike. Shortly after the newspapers hit the streets, someone fired 13 bullets through the newspaper's front window. While no one was injured, the incident demonstrated Oviedo's violent streak (and lack of sense of humor) (ref H). Oviedo called the press an "instrument for confusion" and threatened press moguls with exposure of their financial and sexual sins if they sullied his reputation in 1991 (ref F). He uses similar tactics with his own campaign staff, reportedly yelling at them and calling them names in order to motivate them to work harder. His campaign manager told Pol/Econ Chief that Oviedo's methods are, in fact, effective: His people respond. ¶7. (S) This Embassy has repeatedly reported that Oviedo is a liar (refs F and I are only two examples) and an expert in manipulation. Throughout the early 1990's, leading up to his attempted 1996 coup, Oviedo assured this Embassy of his democratic leanings and denied intentions to carry out a coup. Just this week, Oviedo orchestrated news stories implying he had been invited urgently to Washington on the eve of the elections in an attempt to associate himself with us. After allowing the issue to be bandied about in the press for a day, Oviedo publicly stated that he would not travel to the United States because he is needed in Paraguay for the last leg of his campaign (ref J)(as opposed to the real reason he won't be making that trip -- his lack of a visa). Instead, he promised to travel to DC immediately after his election to renegotiate Paraguay's (nonexistent) U.S. debt. -------------- PRAGMATIC VIEWS OF THE UNITED STATES -------------- ¶8. (C) Oviedo is a pragmatist who views relations with the United States as a necessary evil. Oviedo reiterated in 2005 his plans to become Paraguay's president and recognized that Paraguay will need U.S. support to be successful (ref K). A former PolCouns here predicted that Oviedo, as president, would be prepared to do things for the United States in exchange for our tolerance of him (as the USG put up with Paraguayan dictator Stroessner because he took our side in the Cold War). The former PolCouns warned that Oviedo would find something we want (an ally against Venezuela, perhaps) and would seek to become indispensable to us in that regard in order to further his own long-term interests (restoring his good name as a dictator-turned-democrat). ¶9. (C) Oviedo has taken several anti-U.S. stands in the past. In 1993, he publicly stated that only Japan and Germany provided substantial assistance to Paraguay, and that if the United States really wanted to help, it should provide low-interest loans on concessionary terms (ref L). Oviedo opposed U.S. military exercises in Paraguay in 1994 because he didn't want the United States to outshine his own efforts and because he worried that the United States would pursue something other than its stated military mission (ref M). In 1997, Oviedo was behind the GOP's decision to cancel a U.S.-Paraguayan military cooperation agreement, which the GOP later rescinded so the agreement could go forward (ref N). Oviedo has also expressed hostility toward the DEA. (NOTE: The feeling is mutual. END NOTE). In 1993, he told the Argentines that the United States was responsible for their loss of the Falklands; he reportedly said so in order to curry Argentine support for a Mercosur multinational force to ASUNCION 00000261 003 OF 004 protect the Southern Cone instead of depending on the United States for defense (ref O). Oviedo was hostile to Ambassador Maura Harty (1997-1999),and once threatened to have Ambassador Jon Glassman (1991-1994) expelled from Paraguay for interference in internal affairs (ref P). ¶10. (C) While Oviedo purports to be a populist, his sympathies lie more with the authoritarian right than with the revolutionary left. In a November 1 interview with leading daily ABC Color, Oviedo was asked who he would model his government after. He responded "neither the right nor the left nor the center, but progress. Neither Chavez nor Evo Morales like some say, but a government that puts the Paraguayan people first, and that responds to their needs." Since that time, his public discourse and campaign ads have clearly set him at sharp odds with the current leaders of Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador. Oviedo uses a seemingly endless supply of energy to campaign for Paraguay's poor masses, visiting as many small towns in his campaign for civilian president as he visited remote military bases as a general. He convinces the poor, in their own Guarani, that he will fight for them as president. And they believe him. ¶11. (C) For long stretches of time, the Embassy has had little or no contact with Oviedo, making it all the more difficult to understand his current intentions. Embassy officials cut off contact with Oviedo in 1997 following his coup attempt, and denied his visa application based on the terrorist activities ineligibility in January of the same year (ref N). He spent much of the past decade in exile or prison. Since his release from Paraguayan military prison in September 2007, Oviedo has been eager to establish contact with the Embassy, sending messages via various interlocutors expressing his interest in meetings. Pol/Econ Chief met privately with him November 1; the Ambassador and DCM privately met with him February 14. We have had more frequent contact with UNACE candidates for the Senate and Lower House, as well as with Oviedo's key advisors. -------------- OTHER BIO NOTES -------------- ¶12. (C) Lino Oviedo was born September 23, 1943. His hometown, Juan de Mena, is approximately three hours northeast of Asuncion in the Cordillera department. Oviedo's father fought in the Chaco War (1932-1935) and the 1947 Civil War, but later bought and sold cattle for a living. His mother was a school teacher. Lino Oviedo was the fourth of his parents' five children (he has two brothers and two sisters). Oviedo's mother passed away in 1993; his father was reportedly in ill health in 1995, and if still living, would now be around 90 years of age (ref Q). Oviedo is married to Argentine Raquel Marin and has six children. ¶13. (C) While Oviedo has claimed that his only accumulated wealth relates to a few small factories his father left him, the Embassy did not believe his statements (ref F). He is reputed to have a fortune which "remains intact." There are many allegations that much of his wealth was accumulated during his time as President Rodriguez' Chief of Staff - when Rodriguez served as protector for narcotics traffickers who used Paraguay as a base of international operations. Oviedo publicly purports to despise wealth, even campaigning in small towns with his pants pockets turned inside out. -------------- COMMENT: THE DEVIL YOU KNOW -------------- ¶14. (C) While the race remains close, Oviedo places a fairly consistent third in opinion polls, making him the long shot bet on April 20. Oviedo is the only true politician in this race. He is tireless on the campaign trail, where he is immensely popular with Paraguay's rural poor. If elected, Oviedo would personify "the devil you know" adage. For all of his negative characteristics (so many that they are difficult to catalog),he would likely be committed to reforming Paraguay to root out corruption and attract foreign investment. He would seek U.S. support for personal, redemptive reasons, and would continue to confront Chavez, as long as doing so remained in his interest. The bottom line? Tigers don't change their stripes. Unless Oviedo was rehabilitated by the Brazilian and Paraguayan correctional systems (highly unlikely),the Oviedo of today is the Oviedo of yesterday. END COMMENT. Please visit us at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/asuncion ASUNCION 00000261 004 OF 004 CASON