OAS AND IFES KEEPING PRESSURE ON ELECTORAL COURT

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000259

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2028
TAGS: PREL PGOV PA
SUBJECT: OAS AND IFES KEEPING PRESSURE ON ELECTORAL COURT


Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) The National Electoral Court (TSJE) is ready for
Paraguay's April 20 elections. The Organization of American
States (OAS) and IFES electoral missions report that the TSJE
accepted and has acted on all ten of the political
opposition's recommendations regarding the electoral process.
The TSJE has made all of the necessary technical
preparations, although OAS and IFES remain concerned about
the TSJE's partisan nature and general lack of credibility as
an institution. IFES head of delegation (and former
Colombian President) Andres Pastrana told the Ambassador
April 17 that regardless of what happens on Sunday, the TSJE
should be gutted and reformed before Paraguay's next national
election.


2. (C) The OAS and IFES have encouraged the political parties
to agree not to declare victory or announce elections results
before 9 p.m. on April 20. After that time, the political
parties would be free to share their own exit polling and
preliminary results with the public. (NOTE: The parties have
not yet agreed. END NOTE). Both electoral missions have
also encouraged the TSJE to make early results public as they
come in instead of waiting to reach some critical mass of
results (historically, 80 or 92 percent here). Bowing to
such pressures, OAS head of delegation Maria Emma Mejia told
resident Ambassadors mid-day April 18 that the TSJE, bowing
to domestic and international pressures, will now attempt to
release partial results as soon at least five (5) percent of
the results are in.


3. (C) Mejia met with President Duarte early April 18; Duarte
promised Mejia that he would accept whatever the elections
results, including a Colorado defeat. Mejia recommended
Duarte speak to the nation as president, not as a Colorado,
to encourage high voter turnout and a peaceful process;
Duarte agreed to consider doing so. (NOTE: Duarte, in fact,
did so at mid-day; speaking "as President of the Republic,"
Duarte called for "massive participation" Sunday and full
respect for the Constitution as the agreed-upon way to
resolve political differences by peaceful means. END NOTE.)
At the OAS' behest, Duarte also agreed to speak to the TSJE
to ensure that each political party has one representative
observe the TSJE's TREP (quick count) process. The OAS and
IFES electoral missions have privately said they will not
accompany the TREP process if Paraguay's own political
parties are not given access. The OAS' Mejia underscored to
the Diplomatic Corps that the OAS was not present to
"rubberstamp" results of any kind, and that they would report
any problems, "large or small, political or technical," that
they observed. She reiterated that any OAS statements would
be done on the ground in Paraguay (not in DC),and that the
mission would remain present at least until there is a formal
proclamation of the official results.


4. (SBU) Despite widespread rumors and perceptions of
electoral fraud (90 percent of one television station's
viewers surveyed late April 17 believe there will be
electoral fraud),neither the OAS nor IFES have seen any hard
evidence. Concerns remain focused on buying voter's
registration cards, buying the tables, and alteration or
substitution of the tables' tally sheets. Anticipating
electoral fraud (and that the Colorados will steal this
election),several representatives of Lugo's Patriotic
Alliance for Change (APC) have told Emboffs that they will
call for civil unrest if the TSJE declares Colorado candidate
Blanca Ovelar the winner on April 20 or soon thereafter.


5. (C) COMMENT: Paraguay has yet to experience a democratic
transfer of power from one political party to another in its
197 years of independence. There is now a pervasive sense
throughout the country that this election could well be an
historic anomaly, if not precedent-setting. After 61 years
of uninterrupted rule, the Colorados are looking at the very
real possibility of defeat, and by many accounts (including
privately to us by senior Colorado leaders),are "desperate."
But to their (or perhaps President Duarte's) credit, the
Colorado Party ensured that the nominally independent
judiciary "allowed" both Oviedo and Lugo to compete in the
election -- even as Duarte's calculation that Oviedo would
divide the opposition seems to have backfired and hurt his
own candidate's chances. In any case, having all the
candidates in the game is a strong democratic sign. END
COMMENT.

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