OAS AND IFES KEEPING PRESSURE ON ELECTORAL COURT

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000259 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2028 TAGS: PREL PGOV PA SUBJECT: OAS AND IFES KEEPING PRESSURE ON ELECTORAL COURT Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) The National Electoral Court (TSJE) is ready for Paraguay's April 20 elections. The Organization of American States (OAS) and IFES electoral missions report that the TSJE accepted and has acted on all ten of the political opposition's recommendations regarding the electoral process. The TSJE has made all of the necessary technical preparations, although OAS and IFES remain concerned about the TSJE's partisan nature and general lack of credibility as an institution. IFES head of delegation (and former Colombian President) Andres Pastrana told the Ambassador April 17 that regardless of what happens on Sunday, the TSJE should be gutted and reformed before Paraguay's next national election. ¶2. (C) The OAS and IFES have encouraged the political parties to agree not to declare victory or announce elections results before 9 p.m. on April 20. After that time, the political parties would be free to share their own exit polling and preliminary results with the public. (NOTE: The parties have not yet agreed. END NOTE). Both electoral missions have also encouraged the TSJE to make early results public as they come in instead of waiting to reach some critical mass of results (historically, 80 or 92 percent here). Bowing to such pressures, OAS head of delegation Maria Emma Mejia told resident Ambassadors mid-day April 18 that the TSJE, bowing to domestic and international pressures, will now attempt to release partial results as soon at least five (5) percent of the results are in. ¶3. (C) Mejia met with President Duarte early April 18; Duarte promised Mejia that he would accept whatever the elections results, including a Colorado defeat. Mejia recommended Duarte speak to the nation as president, not as a Colorado, to encourage high voter turnout and a peaceful process; Duarte agreed to consider doing so. (NOTE: Duarte, in fact, did so at mid-day; speaking "as President of the Republic," Duarte called for "massive participation" Sunday and full respect for the Constitution as the agreed-upon way to resolve political differences by peaceful means. END NOTE.) At the OAS' behest, Duarte also agreed to speak to the TSJE to ensure that each political party has one representative observe the TSJE's TREP (quick count) process. The OAS and IFES electoral missions have privately said they will not accompany the TREP process if Paraguay's own political parties are not given access. The OAS' Mejia underscored to the Diplomatic Corps that the OAS was not present to "rubberstamp" results of any kind, and that they would report any problems, "large or small, political or technical," that they observed. She reiterated that any OAS statements would be done on the ground in Paraguay (not in DC),and that the mission would remain present at least until there is a formal proclamation of the official results. ¶4. (SBU) Despite widespread rumors and perceptions of electoral fraud (90 percent of one television station's viewers surveyed late April 17 believe there will be electoral fraud),neither the OAS nor IFES have seen any hard evidence. Concerns remain focused on buying voter's registration cards, buying the tables, and alteration or substitution of the tables' tally sheets. Anticipating electoral fraud (and that the Colorados will steal this election),several representatives of Lugo's Patriotic Alliance for Change (APC) have told Emboffs that they will call for civil unrest if the TSJE declares Colorado candidate Blanca Ovelar the winner on April 20 or soon thereafter. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: Paraguay has yet to experience a democratic transfer of power from one political party to another in its 197 years of independence. There is now a pervasive sense throughout the country that this election could well be an historic anomaly, if not precedent-setting. After 61 years of uninterrupted rule, the Colorados are looking at the very real possibility of defeat, and by many accounts (including privately to us by senior Colorado leaders),are "desperate." But to their (or perhaps President Duarte's) credit, the Colorado Party ensured that the nominally independent judiciary "allowed" both Oviedo and Lugo to compete in the election -- even as Duarte's calculation that Oviedo would divide the opposition seems to have backfired and hurt his own candidate's chances. In any case, having all the candidates in the game is a strong democratic sign. END COMMENT. Please visit us at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/asuncion CASON