A PRIMER ON GENERAL OVIEDO

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000239

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2028
TAGS: PGOV PREL PA
SUBJECT: A PRIMER ON GENERAL OVIEDO

REF: A. ASUNCION 636 (2007)

B. ASUNCION 739 (2007)

C. ASUNCION 748 (2007)

D. ASUNCION 910 (2007)

E. ASUNCION 940 (2007)

Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: National Union of Ethical Citizens (UNACE)
presidential candidate Lino Oviedo, one of the top three
contenders for the presidency in the April 20 national
elections, has a long (and somewhat dark) history in
Paraguayan politics. This message is intended to provide a
chronological account of the high (or low) lights of Oviedo's
military and political career, including his political
activities as a military officer and his role in attempted
coups, an assassination, and other nefarious endeavors. The
final cable in this series will attempt to analyze Oviedo's
personality and leadership style for Washington readers,
should he upset front-runner Fernando Lugo and Colorado
Blanca Ovelar next Sunday. END SUMMARY.

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1989 COUP
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2. (C) On February 3, 1989, General Andres Rodriguez led a
coup against President (and General) Alfredo Stroessner (his
mentor and brother-in-law),who governed Paraguay as a
military dictator since 1954. Lino Oviedo, then-commander of
the Army's First Calvary Division, is rumored to have long
urged Rodriguez to execute the coup, and is informally
credited with being the officer who "broke down the door" to
arrest Stroessner. According to Embassy Asuncion reporting,
Oviedo began to dabble in Paraguayan politics around 1989
(NOTE: While the 1992 constitution forbids the military from
engaging in politics (Article 173),the 1967 constitution, in
force at that time, was silent on that point. A politicized
army, after all, had been key to Colorado rule for decades.
END NOTE). Once Rodriguez became president, Oviedo served as
his aide-de-camp. At that time, Embassy Asuncion believed
Oviedo was not just aware of but actively managing contraband
and narcotics trafficking.

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EARLY 1990'S -- COUP RUMORS AND INTERFERENCE IN POLITICS
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3. (C) In 1991-92, Oviedo repeatedly denied intentions to
execute a coup and confirmed his loyalty to President
Rodriguez and constitutional order. In a 1992 speech, Oviedo
called democracy "an irreversible process" in both Latin
America and the world and the only viable way to attain the
public welfare. Oviedo continued to engage in political
activities. President Rodriguez tolerated Oviedo's political
excursions, but once low-ranked him for promotion and
admonished him several times for his activities, more because
he resented the competition than because he disliked his
political activities per se.


4. (C) In December 1992, Colorado politics took a turn for
the worse when exit polls showed Luis Maria Argana winning
the Colorado nomination against Juan Carlos Wasmosy before
the party's electoral officials suspended tabulations. With
the vote counting stopped, the ballot boxes were moved to the
First Calvary Division headquarters outside Asuncion under
Oviedo's control. Once there, he and others (including
current President Duarte and Senator Galaverna) gave the
election to Wasmosy. In early 1993, Oviedo proposed
postponing the May national elections and establishing a
"government of national emergency" in which cabinet posts
would be shared with the political opposition. He threatened
to arrest President Rodriguez if he did not agree. Elections
went forward, and in May 1993, Wasmosy was elected the first
civilian president in almost 40 years, with Oviedo firmly
behind him. Around the same time, President Rodriguez issued
Oviedo his fourth warning for insubordination for organizing
political rallies in direct contradiction to orders. Oviedo
continued his activities but vigorously denied coup
intentions.


5. (C) Upon Wasmosy's election, Embassy reporting reveals
that Oviedo was jeered publicly and criticized by President
Carter and the European Union parliament. Oviedo blamed the
U.S. Embassy (and then-Ambassador Glassman) for his problems.
Colorado dissident leader Luis Argana became Oviedo's
nemesis. Argana called Oviedo " a major threat to Paraguayan
democracy" and wanted to force him to step down. Oviedo
threatened to mobilize 200,000 people to surround Congress
and shut it down. He claimed to control President Wasmosy
and verbally attacked and threatened to expel Ambassador
Glassman for "internal interference." Embassy reporting in
1994 refers to Oviedo as having ties to drug traffickers and
possible ties to the assassination of the director of
Paraguay's counternarcotics unit (SENAD).

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OVIEDO'S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDACY AND YET ANOTHER COUP
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6. (C) The three main candidates for the 1996 Colorado
primary were Argana, Senator Blas Riquelme (who Oviedo
supported),and Vice President Angel Seifart. The primary
was postponed five times over Argana's objections. By this
time, Oviedo had become Army Commander. Oviedo declared all
three candidates "crazy" but still denied plans to run for
office, stating that instead he would "retire to the country
to tend horses and make cheese." President Wasmosy, worried
about Oviedo's potential to undermine his government, ordered
him to step down in April. Oviedo refused and gathered
troops for a coup attempt. After a two-day standoff, in which
Wasmosy sought refuge in this Embassy, Oviedo relented and
turned in his resignation, expecting to be appointed Defense
Minister as had been agreed. Wasmosy reneged under public
pressure, leading Oviedo supporters to march on the palace
(Wasmosy escaped in a helicopter). Wasmosy ordered Oviedo's
arrest in June for sedition. (NOTE: As a consequence of
these events, this Embassy denied Oviedo's January 1997 visa
application on terrorism grounds. END NOTE). Oviedo,
undeterred by the criminal proceedings against him, sought
and won the Colorado party nomination for president,
defeating Luis Maria Argana.


7. (C) A military tribunal sentenced Oviedo to ten years in
jail for sedition and rebellion in March 1998 (upheld on
appeal that April). The Supreme Court nullified Oviedo's
candidacy, and the 1998 general elections were postponed to
allow Oviedo's running mate, Raul Cubas, to conduct a
presidential campaign. As the Colorado presidential
candidate, Cubas was elected president in May 1998. But
everyone knew that Oviedo was calling the shots.

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ASSASSINATION OF VICE-PRESIDENT ARGANA AND MARZO PARAGUAYO
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8. (C) Upon entering office in August 1998, Cubas' first acts
were to commute Oveido's sentence and release him from
confinement. The Supreme Court found Cubas' actions
unconstitutional, but Cubas openly defied the court in
February 1999. Cubas' actions further strained relations with
Vice President Luis Maria Argana. Argana and his supporters
then began impeachment proceedings against President Cubas in
February 1999. Then, Vice President Argana was assassinated
on March 23, 1999. The Lower House impeached Cubas the
following day, March 24. A few days later, on March 26,
eight student demonstrators were shot and killed in the now
infamous "Marzo Paraguayo." Embassy reporting at the time
described a "near universal perception" that Oviedo ordered
the Argana murder and was responsible for the students'
deaths. Oviedo was charged with involvement in both. Because
of Senate plans to vote to remove Cubas on March 29, Cubas
resigned from office March 28 and Senate President Luis
Gonzalez Macchi was sworn in the same day.

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DOING TIME
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9. (C) Oviedo fled to Argentina, where he continued to
direct Paraguayan political activities. In March 1999,
Argentina refused to extradite Oviedo to Paraguay, instead
granting him political asylum. In December 1999, Oviedo left
exile in Argentina for Brazil because Argentina's new
president, Fernando de la Rua, said he would force Oviedo out
of the country. Eventually, Oviedo was arrested for weapons
charges in Brazil in 2000. In 2000, Oviedo also launched a
"mini-coup" (a lone tank fired a few rounds at Congress) just
to keep pressure on -- and his name on everyone's tongues.


10. (C) Oviedo spent seven months in prison in Brazil; Brazil
rejected Paraguay's request to extradite Oviedo in December

2001. Embassy reporting notes that he orchestrated protests
in September 2002 to demand the resignation of President
Gonzalez Macchi. Oviedo needed Congress plus the president
to grant him amnesty so he could run in the 2003 elections.
Oviedistas led impeachment proceedings against Gonzalez
Macchi, who survived the impeachment trial. Without amnesty,
Oviedo did not compete in the 2003 elections.


11. (SBU) In June 2004, Oviedo voluntarily returned to
Paraguay from Brazil to face criminal charges. After a
series of legal (and political) maneuvers, Oviedo was
released conditionally from prison on September 6, 2007. The
Supreme Court overturned his conviction on October 30, and on
the same day, the National Electoral Court registered him to
vote, thus reinstating his full civil and political rights
(and enabling him to run for president). Technically he
still faces possible charges on both.

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COMMENT
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12. (C) Many Paraguayans gloss over Oviedo's role in
Paraguayan history, choosing to focus on his strong
leadership skills and role in ending Stroessner's
dictatorship. To this day, Oviedo insists that he always
fought for democracy, but the powers that be (including the
U.S. Embassy) distorted past events in order to prejudice him
politically. He charges that the U.S. Embassy was "tricked"
by his political opponents into believing the worst about
him. Washington should not take Oviedo at his word on this.
Criminal charges were brought against him for involvement in
the 1996 attempted coup and the 1999 assassination of Vice
President Argana for good reason, not to mention his other
attempted coups, narcotics trafficking, and a wide range of
political activities, all of which led the U.S. Embassy to
"remove his democratic credentials."


13. (C) Instead of holding a grudge against the United
States, Oviedo actively seeks our approval and close
relations, including our "formal recognition" of his
democratic credentials. Given Oviedo's long association with
the Colorado Party and his perceived track record of
organizational success via the military, Oviedo's appeal to
voters, particularly the lower socio-economic sectors of
society seeking improved security and a safe bridge to
change, is undeniable. It's been enough to get him back in
the political game, with his party likely to do very well in
Congress and well-positioned to exert pressure on the next
president. Unless, of course, he is that next president.
END COMMENT.

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CASON