CRAWLING CRABS TO FLYING GEESE: OVELAR'S ECONOMIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000196 SIPDIS SIPDIS PASS TO WHA/BSC KBEAMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2028 TAGS: ECON PREL PGOV PA SUBJECT: CRAWLING CRABS TO FLYING GEESE: OVELAR'S ECONOMIC VISION Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Michael J. Fitzpatrick, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Colorado presidential candidate Blanca Ovelar presented February 28 her economic platform to the American-Paraguayan Chamber of Commerce (AMCHAM). Ovelar's main themes were building an economic agenda based on active collaboration between civil society, the public, and private sector, and increasing competitiveness. After a "work in progress" qualifier, Ovelar presented five policy precepts: economic prosperity and growth; public safety and national defense; energy; foreign relations; and social inclusion. Ovelar set forth clear proposals on personal income tax, civil service reform, access to credit, and bilateral agreements with Itaipu and Yacyreta. She sent mixed signals, however, on privatization. Ovelar asserted that she is a leader who represents change, although her economic plan sounded like much like President Duarte's 2003 plan. While she mentioned some fuzzy economic policy measures in general terms, her speech sounded more like her standard stump speech than remarks specifically tailored to a business audience. Overall, Ovelar lost credibility by ignoring the widespread corruption associated with her party, by failing to address the need for judicial reform, and by characterizing herself as representing change. END SUMMARY. -------------- --- "MY UTOPIA, MY VISION" - OVELAR'S ECONOMIC THEME -------------- --- ¶2. (SBU) Colorado Party Presidential Candidate Blanca Ovelar presented February 28 her economic platform to the American-Paraguayan Chamber of Commerce (AMCHAM). Over 90 influential private sector representatives listened to Ovelar's vision for Paraguay's economy. Her long introduction (about 20 minutes of the entire 45 minute presentation) aimed to frame in a historical context that "we can all collaboratively work for a better and more prosperous Paraguay." Ovelar passionately declared that "crabs-in-a-barrel" behavior not only limits Paraguay's economic growth but undermines its potential. Her vision is to encourage a "V-flying geese formation" to efficiently promote sustainable growth and deliver Paraguay's untapped potential. She closed the introductory remarks by emphatically stressing that "a woman president" is the only real option for change. ¶3. (SBU) Ovelar's main themes were building an economic agenda with active collaboration between civil society, the public, and the private sector, and increasing competitiveness. She called for building a stronger Paraguay, with both civil society and private sector playing critical roles. Drawing on her experience in the Ministry of Education, Ovelar offered examples of her past collaborative successes. She asserted that she built and implemented a new school curriculum with direct input and guidance from parents and the local community, but recognized that working toward a common goal like building a nation is "a long trust building process." -------------- FIVE POLICY PRECEPTS -------------- ¶4. (SBU) After a "work in progress" qualifier, Ovelar presented five policy precepts: economic prosperity and growth; public safety and national defense; energy; foreign relations; and social inclusion. For economic prosperity and growth, she advocated private sector investment in public works. She said that private sector investment will rehabilitate the obsolete rail system, upgrade the domestic airport, and build a new airport and port. Ovelar characterized globalization as unstoppable (with the caveat that it is important to understand its impact on the local economy),and asserted that Paraguay needs to maintain an open, market-oriented economy. Ovelar declared that Paraguay's raw material export model is obsolete, and alluded to the need to promote manufactured, value-added production. Regarding national defense, Ovelar mentioned that she intends to improve intelligence coordination among government agencies. ¶5. (SBU) Ovelar explained that because Paraguay lacks an energy strategy, relevant ministries and state-owned companies, including Yacyreta and Itaipu, do not share common objectives. She proposed developing "a strategic energy framework" and an inter-ministerial position responsible for coordination and implementation. (NOTE: Though this is an interesting initiative, the "how" was never explained. END NOTE.) On foreign relations, Ovelar did not address bilateral or multilateral (MERCOSUR) trade treaties. Instead, she proposed increasing Paraguay's exports via its Embassies, providing intensive commerce training for Paraguay's diplomats. She also proposed holding Paraguay's Embassies accountable (with quantifiable benchmark indicators) on trade results. "If one of our Embassies does not reach its export target," she said, "the Ambassador and staff should go." ¶6. (C) Ovelar's discussion of social inclusion focused on short-term job creation. She recognized that Paraguay's growth in the last three years has not reached the poor. "The rural to urban migration is increasing and employment opportunities need to increase in order to avoid a social crisis," Ovelar asserted. She proposed using a cooperative model for small producers, and promoted the production of sugar cane. Ovelar plans to immediately create 360,000 jobs with a program to cultivate 120,000 hectares of sugar cane (3 workers per hectare). (NOTE: Though she never explicitly used the word, Ovelar referred to funding subsidies. Under a patronage system that has achieved disastrous economic results, the government already provides funding subsidies to cotton producers. Coincidentally, these cotton subsidies supported 300,000 jobs with about 100,000 hectares of land cultivated. END NOTE.) -------------- "I WANT TO...BUT" -- MIXED SIGNALS -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Ovelar said she will continue to advance tax reform, stating that a "personal income tax is the main pillar of a tax structure, and the next step if Paraguay wants to evolve as a developed economy." She proposed using personal income tax revenues to support a human resource fund to increase spending on education. On civil service reform, she pointedly remarked: "government jobs reward mediocrity and penalize excellence." She proposed making the civil service system a meritocracy where increased salaries can help attract better employees. "The government can not hire all qualified party affiliated people, let alone the unqualified ones," Ovelar said. ¶8. (SBU) With regard to credit access, Ovelar stressed the need for "non-populist" policies to promote lending to micro, small and medium size enterprises (MSME). Ovelar also stated that she will utilize objective criteria based on experience, credentials and commitment to designate her Economic Cabinet (Minister of Finance, Minister of Industry and Commerce, and President of the Central Bank). She noted her desire to build on the progress achieved under the Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) Threshold Program in the fight against property rights violations and customs reform. ¶9. (SBU) In her explanation of how to engage Brazil and Argentina in the renegotiation of the Itaipu and Yacyreta Dam agreements, Ovelar proposed the development of an in-depth report by an independent consulting firm, with the participation of Brazilian experts, to support Paraguay's negotiations with Brazil, and to be presented to the Brazilian Congress. With regard to Yacyreta, Ovelar said that she has Argentinean President Cristina Kirchner's commitment and support to seek a more equitable solution. In describing how Kirchner,s support evolved, Ovelar stated, "as women we both have a better understanding and the unconditional commitment to get a solution to this injustice." ¶10. (C) Ovelar stumbled and sent mixed signals on privatization. She stressed the importance of private investment in the development of public works, and noted that there is a great wealth of private capital available in the world and that Paraguay must only take advantage of investment opportunities. Her plan is to "actively seek private investors, prepare professional investment proposals, and increase the transparency of the government bidding processes." However, she also gave her listeners a categorical "no" to the privatization of state-owned companies. She said she opposes privatization and called for a "careful assessment of the impact of private sector participation." She warned against a private company monopolizing cement prices, and characterized the water privatization program in Argentina as "not all that successful." -------------- - "I AM A LEADER, I AM CHANGE, I AM WOMAN.....!" -------------- - ¶11. (C) Ovelar asserted that she is a strong leader who represents change, although her economic plan sounded much like President Duarte's 2003 plan. She said her administration will have "zero tolerance" for bribery and corruption. Ovelar predicted that the new Congress would be very diverse but assured her audience that she will build alliances with the opposition to govern effectively. She characterized Congress and the government bureaucracy as "obstacles to reform and action," citing the red tape required to make simple changes in a ministry's budget. (COMMENT: Instead of trying to bill her economic plan as her own, Ovelar should have taken advantage of Duarte's economic coattails, admitting that she planned to continue implementation of his 2003 proposals, which are widely recognized as solid and successful. END COMMENT). -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (C) While Ovelar mentioned some fuzzy economic policy measures in general terms, her speech sounded more like her standard stump speech than remarks specifically tailored to a business audience. Audience reactions to her crab and geese analogies were confused, at best. Timid at first, but more comfortable as she warmed up, Ovelar compensated for her substantive lack of depth with passion and poise. While she had a few bright spots during her remarks, Ovelar lost credibility by ignoring the widespread corruption associated with her party, by failing to address the need for judicial reform, and by characterizing herself -- the governing Colorado Party's candidate -- as representing change. But worst of all, Ovelar told the Paraguayan business community that she opposes privatization, which was a message not welcomed by her audience. END COMMENT. Please visit us at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/asuncion CASON