BLANCA OVELAR'S VISION FOR PARAGUAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASUNCION 000178

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/19/2028
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON PA
SUBJECT: BLANCA OVELAR'S VISION FOR PARAGUAY

REF: A. ASUNCION 00099

B. ASUNCION 00106

C. ASUNCION 00135

Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick; Reasons: 1.4 (B&D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Colorado Party standard-bearer told
Ambassador March 18 she will seek to broaden and deepen
relations with the United States should she win Paraguay's
April 20 presidential elections. She spoke of the need to
reform the state, fight corruption, increase citizen
participation in governmental decision-making and placed an
emphasis on health and educational reforms. Ovelar expressed
strong support for Millenium Challenge programs (past and
future) in Paraguay. Eager to learn about police and security
matters, she was grateful for US assistance. Ovelar made
clear she did not believe (her own party's) accusations of
inappropriate partisan activities by the Embassy. Even as
she predicted she will win the election, Ovelar recognized
that the Electoral Tribunal's authority is at an all-time low
-- and conceded she feared a narrow victory that might lack
legitimacy in the eyes of many. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Colorado Party presidential candidate Blanca Ovelar
accepted Ambassador's invitation to coffee at his residence
late the afernoon of March 18. Ovelar was accompanied only
by her sister, Nancy Ovelar de Gorostiaga, an informal
political advisor reportedly involved in strategic
communications for the campaign (and watching her sister's
back). DCM also attended the relaxed hour-long conversation,
which provided an opportunity to brief the candidate in depth
on the breadth of U.S. programs and activities in-country, as
well as to hear of her priorities and concerns. This was
the fourth and last such meeting with each of the top four
contenders for the April 20 presidential elections (see also
reftels). Thus far, none of the candidates has publicly
mentioned these private chats with the U.S. Ambassador.


3. (C) After complimenting the Ambassador on his Guarani
language abilities, Ovelar entered into an extended
discussion as to how Paraguay's unique culture (the only
truly bilingual country in the hemisphere, based on a nomadic
tribe that welcomed the Spanish) and history (two destructive
wars that laid waste to much of the population, reinforced
submission to strongman rule and have limited outside
contacts) have shaped its current political culture. She
stressed that the state must be modernized, corruption
reduced and civic participation in governance increased.
Stating that she had grown up during an era of political
oppression (she did not mention that her father had been
imprisoned and tortured for his Socialist opposition to
Stroessner's rule),Ovelar stated flatly, "We will never go
back to dictatorship. Never."


4. (C) REORGANIZE THE STATE: Ovelar repeatedly suggested
that the traditional methods of governance here will no
longer work. President Duarte trebled the education budget
in the past five years, she asserted, only to underscore that
the resulting "outputs" have not improved. That suggests, she
said, that the system is broken. (NOTE: Duarte, who
previously served as Education Minister, appointed Ovelar as
Education Minister in 2003; she resigned in late 2007 to run
for President. END NOTE.) She suggested, for example, that
teachers ought not to be able to retire with a pension as
early as age 40. She stated that the Education Ministry was
the only ministry now with a long-term vision and strategy.


5. (C) COMBAT CORRUPTION: Having recently received a lengthy
brief from Minister Walde on the Millenium Threshold Program,
Ovelar stressed her desire to reduce corruption. Ambassador
told her the next government-in-waiting would have until July
31 to submit a proposal for Threshold Phase Two (to begin in
late 2008). Ovelar stated she had very much appreciated the
Threshold Program's activities while she had been Education
Minister; strongly supports a second phase; and, clearly
understood that reducing corruption remains the key stumbling
block to Paraguay's ever qualifiying for a Millenium Compact
-- something which she stated she very much would strive to
accomplish as President.


6. (C) EDUCATION AND HEALTH: Ovelar stressed that public
health and education would necessarily be high priorities for
her government. She emphasized the need for decentralization
and direct community involvement in governmental programs at
the local level, not only as a brake on corruption but to
improve efficiencies and relevance. Ovelar was pleased to
hear of the Embassy programs, in partnership with the
National Cancer Coalition, to improve women's health, in
particular to combat women's cancers. She says she is
planning to have a fleet of mobile health clinics, deployed
in coordination with an improved social commmunications
program, in the countryside. Noting that the whole country's
medical records could be kept "on a laptop," she outlined
plans for ongoing programs of health education, early
screening and followup activities designed to attend to --
and prevent -- the most basic of health needs nationwide
(vaccinations, PAP screens, etc.).


7. (C) GOVERNANCE: Ovelar agreed that the next Congress
will undoubtedly be "Balkanized," including new parties and
factions not present now. Asked how she would handle
relations with such an unruly crowd, Ovelar stated she would
seek early agreement on national priorities that all could
agree on. "We will put it all on the table, without hidden
agendas" and seek consensus on major initiatives. She noted
that President Duarte obtained good success with this
approach initially after his 2003 inauguration. Asked if
many of the current ministers of government would stay on in
her government, she said "some might," but that she clearly
was considering a number of changes. She readily accepted
the Ambassador's offer (should she win) to send several
ministers in waiting to the United States this summer on
IVP's to study issues of importance to her government.


8. (C) MILITARY/POLICE: Ovelar suggested the Interior
Ministry was in need of serious reform in order to get a
handle on rising crime and insecurity. She agreed that the
government needed to have a national security stategy before
it could convince Congress to adequately fund the military.
She identified defense of sovereignty, protection of
legitimately elected democratic leaders, international
peacekeeping and assistance with provision of social services
as priorities for the armed services. Ambassador briefed her
on two high priority programs with the military: training and
equipping the DCEI as the military's first and only joint
unit capable of responding anywhere in the country to a
security emergency, and equipping Paraguay's peace-keeping
unit so that they will soon be able to deploy abroad under
Paraguay's own flag (and not embedded within another unit) as
part of UN peacekeeping operations. Ovelar was extremely
pleased with both programs. The Ambassador noted that we
would offer the next President VIP protection training for
his or her personal security detail (as we did for President
Duarte and Vice President Castiglioni). Asked if she was
satisfied with her current security, Ovelar practically
jumped up to say "No" and to accept the offer of U.S.
training assistance for a new security team (NOTE: one
presumably selected by, and beholden to, her. END NOTE).

9.(C) U.S. RELATIONS: Asked if there were any particular
issues she wished the USG would do differently vis-a-vis
Paraguay, Ovelar said "no -- except perhaps engage even
more." She agreed that bilateral relations have historically
been good, if somewhat distant. Ovelar stated she wished to
increase bilateral ties with the U.S.: commercial (expanding
the range and amounts of products to the U.S.),diplomatic
(beefing up the US Desk at the Foreign Ministry),cultural
(university exchanges, etc.). She positively beamed to hear
of the Embassy's program for English language instruction for
500 of Paraguay's best performing, yet poorest, high school
students. She recognized that English language skills are
essential for employment in a competetive global marketplace,
including for expanding the use of the Internet (which she
said should also be a government priority).


10. (C) DOMESTIC POLITICS: Ambassador was explicit and
direct in assuring Ovelar that the United States did not have
a favored candidate in Paraguay, neither in her
just-concluded primary battle with Luis Castiglioni nor in
the upcoming general elections. Reiterating the line he was
quoted using in that morning's papers, "we don't have a dog
in that fight." Ambassador stressed that was why the Embassy
had been steadfastly refusing all contacts between the
Ambassador and all of the pre-candidates for much of the past
year. Our only concern is that the process be fair -- and
seen as such. Visibly relaxed, Ovelar assured the Ambassador
she appreciated receiving the same message last fall from the
Political Chief and DCM. Ovelar said she "prayed to God"
that she will win bY a clear and convincing margin, but that
she expects the outcome will be close indeed. Public
confidence in the Electoral Tribunal is minimal; how the
parties respond during the first 24 hours after the polls
close will be critical in setting the stage for much of the
next Administration's success (or failure).


11. (C) ANTI-US ACCUSATIONS: Ambassador noted that we
understood that certain individuals had been apparently
spreading false information about USG activities in Paraguay,
allegedly on behalf of Castiglioni's electoral campaign.
After detailing, and knocking down, a few of the false
charges himself, Ambassador stated that a cashiered police
officer -- and now head of Intelligence for the Interior
Ministry -- appeared to behind many of the accusations. The
candidate finished the Ambassador's sentence by suggesting
that such information had been "peddled to the Presidency."
Ambassador noted that though we cannot be sure of his
motives, ex-Comisario Aristides Cabral had been identified
publicly several years running in our Human Rights Report
(and INCSR) as a narcotics trafficker. At the mention of
Cabral's narco-ties, the Ovelar sisters exchanged "Eureka"
glances, as if pieces of a puzzle had just fallen into place
for them.


12. (C) COMMENT: Ovelar was relaxed and confident
throughout, despite non-stop 18-hour days on the campaign
trail. While she did not seek to "drill down" in any
specific areas (other than perhaps education and health)
during this intial meeting, she presented herself as
competent and in command of her brief. She referred to
President Duarte -- her mentor and the man responsible for
her candidacy -- only once in the entire meeting. It is also
of note that Ovelar came with a family member, and not with a
member of the Colorado Party leadership formally responsible
for her campaign. (She has been roundly critized, even within
the Colorado Party, for being "a puppet" -- or "a hostage" --
to President Duarte and Senator Galaverna.) Ovelar projected
a calm and engaged presence, as interested in learning more
of U.S. activities as she was in reassuring us of her desires
for strong relations and support should she win the elections
-- which, she assured the Ambassador, she would do. END
COMMENT.

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