AMBASSADOR AND FADUL: ON THE SAME PAGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASUNCION 000135 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2028 TAGS: PGOV PREL PA SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR AND FADUL: ON THE SAME PAGE Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Beloved Fatherland Party (PQ) presidential candidate Pedro Fadul told Ambassador February 26 that the more Paraguayans turn out to vote, the greater the chance an opposition party will win the April 20 national elections. Fadul said one of the PQ's biggest challenges is a lack of funding, and that much of the party's support comes from a tithing system in which PQ members of Congress participate. In stark contrast to the other presidential candidates, the PQ has a sophisticated 100-plus page plan for governing. Fadul told the Ambassador that change is critical to his plan, but noted that "change" means different things to different Paraguayans. The Ambassador briefed on assistance for international observers and a parallel vote count. Fadul underlined the importance of political coalitions to Paraguay's reform efforts, citing the PQ's previous successes in promoting work across party lines. The big questions is whether Fadul, a real "small d" democrat, is too intellectual and modern for today's Paraguay. Fadul's long-term strategic thinking could direct Paraguay in the right direction, but under the current circumstances, he is not likely to do better than a distant fourth-place finish. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Ambassador Cason had a friendly meeting with PQ (for Patria Querida) presidential candidate Fadul February 26, the third in his series of meetings with Paraguay's presidential candidates (reftels). (NOTE: Colorado candidate Blanca Ovelar has still not agreed to the Ambassador's invitation. END NOTE.) Fadul was accompanied by PQ Senator Marcelo Duarte, the party's political secretary. Pol/econ chief attended as notetaker. -------------- GETTING OUT THE VOTE -------------- ¶3. (C) Fadul said the more Paraguayans turn out to vote, the greater the chance of an opposition win (and the more votes for PQ) in April. He noted that Ovelar's campaign is sagging, and that the Colorado strategy is to try to keep people at home. Their subliminal message -- don't bother voting, since we're going to fix the election anyway. "Count on the fact that there will be electoral fraud," Fadul said, "but it may not be decisive." Fadul candidly told the Ambassador he doesn't know how his party will fare in April. Fadul said anything is possible -- that the PQ wins more congressional seats, or that their representation in Congress dwindles. Fadul believed that he will pick up some of former Colorado candidate Luis Castiglioni's votes, and noted that the political scenario could still change drastically if UNACE presidential candidate Lino Oviedo is disqualified. (NOTE: Senator Duarte reported that UNACE senators suddenly started voting with the Colorados when Oviedo was released from prison last fall. END NOTE). Fadul discounted Paraguayan opinion polls; Senator Duarte said Paraguay's biased press is hurting the PQ by over-hyping Fernando Lugo's candidacy. He feared people will feel a vote for the PQ is a throw-away and that only Lugo has a chance to defeat the Colorados. Fadul told Ambassador that Paraguayans won't admit that they plan to vote for Ovelar, but are masters at "telling you what they think you want to hear." Fadul estimated Ovelar will win 600,000 votes out of 3 million registered voters. ¶4. (C) Fadul said one of PQ's biggest challenges is a lack of funding, and that much of the party's support comes from a tithing system in which PQ members of Congress participate. PQ elected officials give the party 15 percent of their salary in their first year in office, ten percent their second year, and five percent their third year. (NOTE: PQ currently has 7 senators and 10 deputies in Congress. END NOTE.) Duarte said the government is obligated to give PQ state electoral funding, but that such funds run several years late. Fadul admitted the PQ has no financier from business or society. The lack of funding, Fadul said, means that volunteers with other full-time jobs make up PQ's support base. PQ volunteers can only do so much with a few hours a week, Fadul lamented. -------------- PQ'S PLAN FOR GOVERNING -------------- ¶5. (C) In stark contrast to the other presidential candidates, the PQ has a sophisticated 100-plus page plan for governing, which spans a wide variety of political, economic and social issues. (NOTE: Oviedo's campaign produced a small booklet with lots of pictures/graphics; Lugo is publishing a ASUNCION 00000135 002.4 OF 003 tri-fold pamphlet which purports to be his plan. We have yet to see a written plan for Ovelar. END NOTE.) Ambassador complimented Fadul on his plan, which is consistent with USG efforts to strengthen democratic institutions, promote investment and development, root out corruption and narcotics trafficking, improve transparency, encourage decentralization, and improve health and education services. Fadul said it was easy to draft, but difficult to get people vested in it based on consensus. He said having "true believers" is key to the eventual success of his plan. Fadul added that Paraguayans are programmed to say that their top concern is ending corruption, but that in reality, they are most concerned about jobs. Fadul's business-oriented approach is geared toward addressing that concern. ¶6. (C) Fadul told the Ambassador that change is critical to his plan, but noted the difficulty of campaigning on change. Paraguayans say they want change, he said, but don't know what they want and don't agree on how to define "change." For some, he said, change is moving from a Duarte to an Ovelar administration. For others, change is voting for a Liberal instead of a Colorado. For others, like the PQ, "change" refers to sweeping reforms of government and society. Fadul said instead of being a single nation, Paraguay is more like three-thirds of a whole. Some are interested in preserving the status quo, others want "change," and still others are indifferent. Fadul noted that culture impacts discussions of this kind in Paraguay. He referenced a common phrase for tomorrow in Guarani which is roughly translated as "if the sun happens to come up," which reflects the doubt inherent in Paraguayan culture. People don't think individually about what they want to be, he said, so how can they participate in that exercise as a country? He said when he talks to people, he asks them what they want for Paraguay's future. When they fail to answer, he asks them what country they would like to model reform after -- Chile? Argentina? The United States? He said Paraguayans say "no" to all of the above. Fadul said he often suggests Atyra, a city in Cordillera Department, which is known for its efficiency and cleanliness, as a model to which people can relate. -------------- U.S. ROLE IN THE APRIL ELECTIONS -------------- ¶7. (C) Fadul asked the Ambassador about possible U.S. roles in the election, and the Ambassador briefed on our electoral assistance (via IFES) in the form of international observers and a parallel vote count. Ambassador outlined U.S. neutrality in the presidential campaign, and our willingness to work with the candidate who both is elected and governs democratically. The Ambassador said IFES will speak out if it observes electoral fraud, and explained the USG would have no role in elections other than financing the IFES mission. Ambassador reviewed all USG assistance to Paraguay, including the MCC Threshold Program, and USAID, INL, DOJ, DOD and Treasury assistance. Ambassador also mentioned the possibility of sending PQ representatives on public diplomacy international visitor programs. -------------- BUILDING A COALITION FOR THE NEXT GOVERNMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Fadul underlined the importance of political coalitions to Paraguay's reform efforts, citing the PQ's previous successes in promoting work across party lines. At the PQ's initiative, the political parties signed a six-point agreement with President Duarte in 2003. Four of the six points were achieved before Duarte broke the agreement by refusing to reform the civil service system, according to Fadul. Fadul said the macroeconomic success of Duarte's administration is directly attributable to that agreement. Fadul said working across party lines is difficult in Paraguay, both in terms of reaching consensus and achieving compliance, just as Lugo and the Liberal Party broke the agreement they made to run as a united political opposition in the current campaign. Fadul cited Colorado Senator (and mafia member) Galaverna as someone with whom it is difficult to find common interests, but said that if Galaverna makes a deal, he delivers. The Liberals, on the other hand, easily promise their support, but never come through. Fadul noted that the PQ is the only unified party in Congress; the Colorados and the Liberals, he asserted, lack party discipline. -------------- -------------- COMMENT: CAN FADUL APPEAL TO THE AVERAGE PARAGUAYAN? -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) A real U.S.-style democrat (in the traditional, not ASUNCION 00000135 003 OF 003 the partisan sense of the word),the big question is whether Fadul is too intellectual and modern for today's Paraguay. He demonstrated both self-awareness and a sense of humor by referencing how people commonly view him and his party -- "Fadul is not that likable, but his people are hard-working and honest." Fadul's assessment is spot on -- his well-dressed, almost-slick appearance and aloof demeanor (when he doesn't turn on the charm) can make it hard for voters to adore him. A devout Opus Dei Catholic, Fadul's religious beliefs come across in his discourse (he referenced the ten commandments, the disciples and the Bible to illustrate several points),and optimism and conviction are hallmarks of his campaign. In short, Fadul's long-term strategic thinking could direct Paraguay in the right direction, but under the current circumstances, he is not likely to do better than a distant fourth-place finish. END COMMENT. Please visit us at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/asuncion CASON