AMBASSADOR AND FADUL: ON THE SAME PAGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASUNCION 000135

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2028
TAGS: PGOV PREL PA
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR AND FADUL: ON THE SAME PAGE

Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Beloved Fatherland Party (PQ) presidential candidate
Pedro Fadul told Ambassador February 26 that the more
Paraguayans turn out to vote, the greater the chance an
opposition party will win the April 20 national elections.
Fadul said one of the PQ's biggest challenges is a lack of
funding, and that much of the party's support comes from a
tithing system in which PQ members of Congress participate.
In stark contrast to the other presidential candidates, the
PQ has a sophisticated 100-plus page plan for governing.
Fadul told the Ambassador that change is critical to his
plan, but noted that "change" means different things to
different Paraguayans. The Ambassador briefed on assistance
for international observers and a parallel vote count. Fadul
underlined the importance of political coalitions to
Paraguay's reform efforts, citing the PQ's previous successes
in promoting work across party lines. The big questions is
whether Fadul, a real "small d" democrat, is too intellectual
and modern for today's Paraguay. Fadul's long-term strategic
thinking could direct Paraguay in the right direction, but
under the current circumstances, he is not likely to do
better than a distant fourth-place finish. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Ambassador Cason had a friendly meeting with PQ (for
Patria Querida) presidential candidate Fadul February 26, the
third in his series of meetings with Paraguay's presidential
candidates (reftels). (NOTE: Colorado candidate Blanca Ovelar
has still not agreed to the Ambassador's invitation. END
NOTE.) Fadul was accompanied by PQ Senator Marcelo Duarte,
the party's political secretary. Pol/econ chief attended as
notetaker.

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GETTING OUT THE VOTE
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3. (C) Fadul said the more Paraguayans turn out to vote, the
greater the chance of an opposition win (and the more votes
for PQ) in April. He noted that Ovelar's campaign is sagging,
and that the Colorado strategy is to try to keep people at
home. Their subliminal message -- don't bother voting, since
we're going to fix the election anyway. "Count on the fact
that there will be electoral fraud," Fadul said, "but it may
not be decisive." Fadul candidly told the Ambassador he
doesn't know how his party will fare in April. Fadul said
anything is possible -- that the PQ wins more congressional
seats, or that their representation in Congress dwindles.
Fadul believed that he will pick up some of former Colorado
candidate Luis Castiglioni's votes, and noted that the
political scenario could still change drastically if UNACE
presidential candidate Lino Oviedo is disqualified. (NOTE:
Senator Duarte reported that UNACE senators suddenly started
voting with the Colorados when Oviedo was released from
prison last fall. END NOTE). Fadul discounted Paraguayan
opinion polls; Senator Duarte said Paraguay's biased press is
hurting the PQ by over-hyping Fernando Lugo's candidacy. He
feared people will feel a vote for the PQ is a throw-away and
that only Lugo has a chance to defeat the Colorados. Fadul
told Ambassador that Paraguayans won't admit that they plan
to vote for Ovelar, but are masters at "telling you what they
think you want to hear." Fadul estimated Ovelar will win
600,000 votes out of 3 million registered voters.


4. (C) Fadul said one of PQ's biggest challenges is a lack of
funding, and that much of the party's support comes from a
tithing system in which PQ members of Congress participate.
PQ elected officials give the party 15 percent of their
salary in their first year in office, ten percent their
second year, and five percent their third year. (NOTE: PQ
currently has 7 senators and 10 deputies in Congress. END
NOTE.) Duarte said the government is obligated to give PQ
state electoral funding, but that such funds run several
years late. Fadul admitted the PQ has no financier from
business or society. The lack of funding, Fadul said, means
that volunteers with other full-time jobs make up PQ's
support base. PQ volunteers can only do so much with a few
hours a week, Fadul lamented.

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PQ'S PLAN FOR GOVERNING
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5. (C) In stark contrast to the other presidential
candidates, the PQ has a sophisticated 100-plus page plan for
governing, which spans a wide variety of political, economic
and social issues. (NOTE: Oviedo's campaign produced a small
booklet with lots of pictures/graphics; Lugo is publishing a

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tri-fold pamphlet which purports to be his plan. We have yet
to see a written plan for Ovelar. END NOTE.) Ambassador
complimented Fadul on his plan, which is consistent with USG
efforts to strengthen democratic institutions, promote
investment and development, root out corruption and narcotics
trafficking, improve transparency, encourage
decentralization, and improve health and education services.
Fadul said it was easy to draft, but difficult to get people
vested in it based on consensus. He said having "true
believers" is key to the eventual success of his plan. Fadul
added that Paraguayans are programmed to say that their top
concern is ending corruption, but that in reality, they are
most concerned about jobs. Fadul's business-oriented
approach is geared toward addressing that concern.


6. (C) Fadul told the Ambassador that change is critical to
his plan, but noted the difficulty of campaigning on change.
Paraguayans say they want change, he said, but don't know
what they want and don't agree on how to define "change."
For some, he said, change is moving from a Duarte to an
Ovelar administration. For others, change is voting for a
Liberal instead of a Colorado. For others, like the PQ,
"change" refers to sweeping reforms of government and
society. Fadul said instead of being a single nation,
Paraguay is more like three-thirds of a whole. Some are
interested in preserving the status quo, others want
"change," and still others are indifferent. Fadul noted that
culture impacts discussions of this kind in Paraguay. He
referenced a common phrase for tomorrow in Guarani which is
roughly translated as "if the sun happens to come up," which
reflects the doubt inherent in Paraguayan culture. People
don't think individually about what they want to be, he said,
so how can they participate in that exercise as a country?
He said when he talks to people, he asks them what they want
for Paraguay's future. When they fail to answer, he asks
them what country they would like to model reform after --
Chile? Argentina? The United States? He said Paraguayans say
"no" to all of the above. Fadul said he often suggests
Atyra, a city in Cordillera Department, which is known for
its efficiency and cleanliness, as a model to which people
can relate.

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U.S. ROLE IN THE APRIL ELECTIONS
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7. (C) Fadul asked the Ambassador about possible U.S. roles
in the election, and the Ambassador briefed on our electoral
assistance (via IFES) in the form of international observers
and a parallel vote count. Ambassador outlined U.S.
neutrality in the presidential campaign, and our willingness
to work with the candidate who both is elected and governs
democratically. The Ambassador said IFES will speak out if
it observes electoral fraud, and explained the USG would have
no role in elections other than financing the IFES mission.
Ambassador reviewed all USG assistance to Paraguay, including
the MCC Threshold Program, and USAID, INL, DOJ, DOD and
Treasury assistance. Ambassador also mentioned the
possibility of sending PQ representatives on public diplomacy
international visitor programs.

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BUILDING A COALITION FOR THE NEXT GOVERNMENT
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8. (C) Fadul underlined the importance of political
coalitions to Paraguay's reform efforts, citing the PQ's
previous successes in promoting work across party lines. At
the PQ's initiative, the political parties signed a six-point
agreement with President Duarte in 2003. Four of the six
points were achieved before Duarte broke the agreement by
refusing to reform the civil service system, according to
Fadul. Fadul said the macroeconomic success of Duarte's
administration is directly attributable to that agreement.
Fadul said working across party lines is difficult in
Paraguay, both in terms of reaching consensus and achieving
compliance, just as Lugo and the Liberal Party broke the
agreement they made to run as a united political opposition
in the current campaign. Fadul cited Colorado Senator (and
mafia member) Galaverna as someone with whom it is difficult
to find common interests, but said that if Galaverna makes a
deal, he delivers. The Liberals, on the other hand, easily
promise their support, but never come through. Fadul noted
that the PQ is the only unified party in Congress; the
Colorados and the Liberals, he asserted, lack party
discipline.

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COMMENT: CAN FADUL APPEAL TO THE AVERAGE PARAGUAYAN?
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9. (C) A real U.S.-style democrat (in the traditional, not

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the partisan sense of the word),the big question is whether
Fadul is too intellectual and modern for today's Paraguay.
He demonstrated both self-awareness and a sense of humor by
referencing how people commonly view him and his party --
"Fadul is not that likable, but his people are hard-working
and honest." Fadul's assessment is spot on -- his
well-dressed, almost-slick appearance and aloof demeanor
(when he doesn't turn on the charm) can make it hard for
voters to adore him. A devout Opus Dei Catholic, Fadul's
religious beliefs come across in his discourse (he referenced
the ten commandments, the disciples and the Bible to
illustrate several points),and optimism and conviction are
hallmarks of his campaign. In short, Fadul's long-term
strategic thinking could direct Paraguay in the right
direction, but under the current circumstances, he is not
likely to do better than a distant fourth-place finish. END
COMMENT.

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