COLORADO CASTIGLIONI: "I WAS ROBBED"

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000127

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2028
TAGS: PREL PGOV PA
SUBJECT: COLORADO CASTIGLIONI: "I WAS ROBBED"


Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Former Colorado presidential candidate and dissident
Luis Castiglioni personally confirmed to Ambassador February
25 reports that President Duarte and "oficialista" candidate
Blanca Ovelar stole the Colorado primary. Castiglioni said it
became clear that Ovelar's faction was stealing the election
when President Duarte used fake exit polls to announce late
December 16 that Ovelar had won that day's Colorado primary
election by 15 percent. Later that evening, when the real
voting results came back showing a likely Castiglioni win,
Blanca Ovelar cried and President Duarte fainted. According
to Castiglioni, Colorado Senator (and Paraguayan mafia
ringleader) Galaverna "saved the day" by stepping in to
orchestrate fraud, stopping the vote count (for several
weeks) and substituting a number of fraudulent electoral
acts, thus making Ovelar "his baby." Castiglioni confirmed
that Ovelar's faction stole 35,000 to 50,000 votes in order
to declare victory. (NOTE: The final results published
January 21 declared Ovelar won 366,722 votes to Castiglioni's
362,702 votes. END NOTE.)


2. (C) Regarding the April 20 national election, Castiglioni
said he is neither speaking to nor negotiating with Duarte or
Ovelar. He said his Vanguard faction of the Colorado Party
will not support Ovelar, but his candidates remain in their
respective races for governor and Congress. He asserted that
he will maintain his faction's unity, and that they will not
"sell out" to Duarte. Castiglioni told the Ambassador he
believes his supporters will split their votes evenly between
opposition presidential candidates Lino Oviedo, Fernando Lugo
and Pedro Fadul. Castiglioni was reluctant to predict who
would win the election, hedging his bets by narrowing the
field to Lugo or Oviedo. (NOTE: Castiglioni noted that Lugo
is not impressive, calling him an "airhead." END NOTE).
Castiglioni reported that he is talking to all three
opposition candidates, and stressed that the next president
will have to govern by coalition. He predicted his faction
would have as many senators as the "oficialistas" faction
will have supporting Ovelar.


3. (C) Castiglioni asserted that Ovelar's popularity is
sagging and that she doesn't have a chance of winning the
election if she continues to associate herself so closely
with Duarte. He acknowledged Duarte's and Galaverna's
"business" connections in passing, suggesting that Galaverna
probably has "stuff" on Duarte which ensures Galaverna's
continued influence. Castiglioni wasn't sure why Ovelar is
sticking it out with Duarte. "She may think she can govern
independently if she's elected," he said, "but she can't."


4. (C) COMMENT: Despite losing the Colorado presidential
nomination, Castiglioni was characteristically optimistic
about his political situation. While disappointed that his
party squandered its opportunity for change from within, he
feels his "principled opposition" to Duarte has strengthened
his support base. Castiglioni is probably right about how
his supporters' votes will be distributed. But his
prediction about Paraguay's next president, and specifically
his failure to consider a possible Ovelar win, may be based
more on wishful thinking than reality. (NOTE: The latest
poll, released February 26, shows Lugo with 31, Ovelar with
25, Oviedo with 23, and Fadul with 7 percent. The more people
who turn out to vote, the harder the presidential election
will be to steal, and the more likely the Colorados' 61-year
governing streak will end. END NOTE). In the immediate term,
Castiglioni will vacation in the United States. Then, he
will focus on forming a coalition of "good guys" in Congress
to achieve political reform. While it's too early to say
whether he will be successful in working across party lines,
it's a sure bet that, at age 45, he will be a political
player in the next term, and that he'll make another run for
the presidency in 2013. END COMMENT.

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