KAZAKHSTAN: ASTANA-BASED AMBASSADORS AGREE: "DEMOCRACY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ASTANA 002577 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM OSCE KDEM KZ SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: ASTANA-BASED AMBASSADORS AGREE: "DEMOCRACY MUST BE HOMEGROWN" REFS: A) ASTANA 2399 B) ASTANA 2398 C) ASTANA 2256 D) USOSCE 0304 (NOTAL) ¶1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet. ¶2. (SBU) This is the third in a series of cables analyzing reactions to Kazakhstan's OSCE Madrid-commitment legislation (reftels A and B). ¶3. (SBU) SUMMARY: On December 30, the Ambassador hosted a working lunch for ambassadors from established democracies to exchange views on Kazakhstan's progress on its Madrid commitments and its political trajectory as a whole. All agreed that the three amended laws, currently under consideration in the lower house of parliament (the Mazhilis),are short of ideal, but are nevertheless a step forward. Further progress will only be achieved with continued engagement, plenty of patience, and a steady view of the long-term goal. Democracy must be homegrown, and Kazakhstan's democratic institutions are beginning to take root. The country's progress may be slow, but it is nevertheless far ahead of its neighbors, and moving in the right direction. Harsh public criticism is unlikely to bring positive results. We should continue to pursue a patient and balanced policy of engagement. END SUMMARY. ¶4. (SBU) Guests at the Ambassador's working lunch were the UK's Ambassador Paul Brummell (who previously served as ambassador to Turkmenistan),South Korea's Ambassador Il-Soo Kim, Belgium's Ambassador Christian Meerschman, Switzerland's newly-appointed Ambassador Stephan Nellen, Canada's Ambassador Margaret Skok, Israel's Ambassador Israel Mei-Ami, Ambassador of The Netherlands Klaas van der Tempel, and Turkey's Charg Alattin Temur. MADRID LAWS "SHORT OF IDEAL," BUT SIGN OF PROGRESS ¶5. (SBU) The Ambassador asked for the participants' assessment of the pending laws on political parties, elections, the media - the so-called Madrid-commitment laws - as well as the newly amended religion law. He also encouraged them to express candidly their own and their governments' general views of Kazakhstan's democratic development. UK's Brummell noted that his embassy sponsored the assessment of the legislation by several leading NGOs, including Freedom House. Overall, he said, the laws are "short of ideal." In his view, however, the Kazakhstanis are taking the Madrid commitments seriously -- "They produced the drafts!" -- and should be urged to consider the legislation carefully and not to pass the laws "just for the sake of it." Brummell pointed to the pending religion law as a good example: thanks in part to concerted international pressure, President Nazarbayev opted not to sign it into law, choosing instead to send it to the Constitutional Council for consideration. (NOTE: Senate Chairman Tokayev told the Ambassador privately on December 23 that the President intended to send the law to the Council, but no official announcement has been made. END NOTE.) ¶6. (SBU) Canada's Skok noted that sharp public criticism of Kazakhstan's progress on the Madrid commitments, like Freedom House's recent report, "are not helpful" for the broader discussions on political development. The report did not provide a thorough analysis of the legislation, in her view, and failed to provide a constructive way forward. NEED FOR CONTINUED ENGAGEMENT... ¶7. (SBU) Israel's Mei-Ami averred that "no drastic change" will take place while President Nazarbayev is still in power. Kazakhstan's political order revolves around the President, he stressed, and the ruling elite fear any sudden jolts that "would make the whole system collapse." Dutch Ambassador van der Tempel agreed, but added that many mid-level officials "are smart and understand the issues" and should be "prodded and encouraged" towards "gentle" political liberalization. "Kazakhstan needs to realize that it does not need to follow Russia" in its political development, he said. Belgium's Meerschman stressed that such encouragement requires serious commitment from both sides. He lamented the fact that Brussels drafted a road map for engagement ASTANA 00002577 002 OF 003 with Central Asia, but "has done nothing" since. ...PATIENCE... ¶8. (SBU) South Korea's Kim offered a "special perspective from a recent democracy." Each country has its own idea, "and ideal," of democracy. "Democracy can't be transplanted; it must be homegrown," he said. He related that as a diplomat posted in Washington, he frequently had to defend his own country's "slow" political progress. Demanding a full-blown democracy in Kazakhstan is "premature." The country is doing "quite well" in comparison to its neighbors, especially considering its short history since independence and the still-powerful influence of Russia. Kim pointed out that Kazakhstan supported the United Nations resolution on North Korea's human rights record, something he sees as evidence of the country's changing world view. He noted that the leadership is still shying away from supporting a similar resolution against Uzbekistan, to which the Ambassador pointed out that "North Korea does not share Kazakhstan's border." ¶9. (SBU) Turkey's Temur agreed with Ambassador Kim that Kazakhstan is moving in the right direction. He noted that Turkey was one of the first to support Kazakhstan's bid for the OSCE chairmanship, but it also supported the EU in its criticism of the pending religion law. "Progress is evident," he said, but "change has to be incremental." ...AND A LONG-TERM VIEW ¶10. (SBU) Switzerland's Nellen raised the question of "conditionality versus finality," what he explained to be the difference between the policy of imposing strict bench-marks versus a policy of concentrating on the broader end goals. Kazakhstan's short-term outlook is "unlikely to satisfy," he said, but taking a broader look at the country's overall political progression "offers a very positive view." "There are certain things that the ruling elite cannot yet accept, but at least it has allowed their introduction," he stressed. "The government could see your grants to Freedom House as support for the 'color revolution,'" he quipped to the UK ambassador, "and yet it tolerates it." ¶11. (SBU) The Ambassador noted that while the United States has also funded Freedom House, he has occasionally disagreed with its assessments. He pointed out that Freedom House recently ranked Kazakhstan as "not free" and lumped it with Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Belarus, where openness to independent press and public discussion falls far below that in Kazakhstan. Such "public diplomacy" from government-supported NGOs can sometimes work against the "private diplomacy" we engage in with Central Asian governments, he said. UK's Brummell countered that organizations like Freedom House play an important role by "tenaciously highlighting the issues," but agreed that it was important "not to preach and to exercise humility." THE WEST'S MIXED SIGNALS? ¶12. (SBU) Switzerland's Nellen ventured that "sometimes the West sends mixed signals" to Kazakhstan. "We promise them the OSCE chairmanship, but then criticize the Madrid legislation; we promote our economic interests, but then hammer them on human rights," he said. The Ambassador countered that, on the whole, all the represented countries pursued a policy that balanced energy, security, and political interests. All is in the eye of the beholder, he stressed: NGOs can always find evidence that business trumps human rights, and companies can always accuse us of putting ideals over economic interests. In the end, we should continue with the balanced approach, he stressed. ¶13. (SBU) The Dutch ambassador suggested that "human rights policy" will gain greater traction if Kazakhstanis see it as in their own best interest. Human rights is just part of the broader context of rule of law, he explained, something Kazakhstan needs in order to attract investment and foster economic growth. South Korea's Kim said a similar approach could be taken with the religion law: Kazakhstan should see that passing the restrictive legislation would not bode well for its international image as a tolerant multi-ethnic state. Canada's Skok agreed, but again stressed the need to be patient. She reminded the participants that many democratic ideals ASTANA 00002577 003 OF 003 they hold dear, for example gender equality, only very recently took root in Western democracies and had initially to be legislated and then followed by a long process of public "re-education." ¶14. (SBU) COMMENT: Somewhat to our surprise, the lunch produced a consensus: while not ideal, the current Madrid-commitment legislation is, nevertheless, a step forward on Kazakhstan's long path toward democracy. Further, there was agreement that Kazakhstan out-paces its neighbors in day-to-day democratic freedoms. Finally, all agreed that patient engagement, rather than harsh criticism, will better lead to our long-term democratic goals for Kazakhstan. END COMMENT.