KAZAKHSTAN: ASTANA-BASED AMBASSADORS AGREE: "DEMOCRACY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ASTANA 002577

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM OSCE KDEM KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: ASTANA-BASED AMBASSADORS AGREE: "DEMOCRACY
MUST BE HOMEGROWN"

REFS:
A) ASTANA 2399
B) ASTANA 2398
C) ASTANA 2256
D) USOSCE 0304 (NOTAL)


1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet.


2. (SBU) This is the third in a series of cables analyzing
reactions to Kazakhstan's OSCE Madrid-commitment legislation
(reftels A and B).


3. (SBU) SUMMARY: On December 30, the Ambassador hosted a working
lunch for ambassadors from established democracies to exchange views
on Kazakhstan's progress on its Madrid commitments and its political
trajectory as a whole. All agreed that the three amended laws,
currently under consideration in the lower house of parliament (the
Mazhilis),are short of ideal, but are nevertheless a step forward.
Further progress will only be achieved with continued engagement,
plenty of patience, and a steady view of the long-term goal.
Democracy must be homegrown, and Kazakhstan's democratic
institutions are beginning to take root. The country's progress may
be slow, but it is nevertheless far ahead of its neighbors, and
moving in the right direction. Harsh public criticism is unlikely
to bring positive results. We should continue to pursue a patient
and balanced policy of engagement. END SUMMARY.


4. (SBU) Guests at the Ambassador's working lunch were the UK's
Ambassador Paul Brummell (who previously served as ambassador to
Turkmenistan),South Korea's Ambassador Il-Soo Kim, Belgium's
Ambassador Christian Meerschman, Switzerland's newly-appointed
Ambassador Stephan Nellen, Canada's Ambassador Margaret Skok,
Israel's Ambassador Israel Mei-Ami, Ambassador of The Netherlands
Klaas van der Tempel, and Turkey's Charg Alattin Temur.

MADRID LAWS "SHORT OF IDEAL," BUT SIGN OF PROGRESS


5. (SBU) The Ambassador asked for the participants' assessment of
the pending laws on political parties, elections, the media - the
so-called Madrid-commitment laws - as well as the newly amended
religion law. He also encouraged them to express candidly their
own and their governments' general views of Kazakhstan's democratic
development. UK's Brummell noted that his embassy sponsored the
assessment of the legislation by several leading NGOs, including
Freedom House. Overall, he said, the laws are "short of ideal." In
his view, however, the Kazakhstanis are taking the Madrid
commitments seriously -- "They produced the drafts!" -- and should
be urged to consider the legislation carefully and not to pass the
laws "just for the sake of it." Brummell pointed to the pending
religion law as a good example: thanks in part to concerted
international pressure, President Nazarbayev opted not to sign it
into law, choosing instead to send it to the Constitutional Council
for consideration. (NOTE: Senate Chairman Tokayev told the
Ambassador privately on December 23 that the President intended to
send the law to the Council, but no official announcement has been
made. END NOTE.)


6. (SBU) Canada's Skok noted that sharp public criticism of
Kazakhstan's progress on the Madrid commitments, like Freedom
House's recent report, "are not helpful" for the broader discussions
on political development. The report did not provide a thorough
analysis of the legislation, in her view, and failed to provide a
constructive way forward.

NEED FOR CONTINUED ENGAGEMENT...


7. (SBU) Israel's Mei-Ami averred that "no drastic change" will
take place while President Nazarbayev is still in power.
Kazakhstan's political order revolves around the President, he
stressed, and the ruling elite fear any sudden jolts that "would
make the whole system collapse." Dutch Ambassador van der Tempel
agreed, but added that many mid-level officials "are smart and
understand the issues" and should be "prodded and encouraged"
towards "gentle" political liberalization. "Kazakhstan needs to
realize that it does not need to follow Russia" in its political
development, he said. Belgium's Meerschman stressed that such
encouragement requires serious commitment from both sides. He
lamented the fact that Brussels drafted a road map for engagement

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with Central Asia, but "has done nothing" since.

...PATIENCE...


8. (SBU) South Korea's Kim offered a "special perspective from a
recent democracy." Each country has its own idea, "and ideal," of
democracy. "Democracy can't be transplanted; it must be homegrown,"
he said. He related that as a diplomat posted in Washington, he
frequently had to defend his own country's "slow" political
progress. Demanding a full-blown democracy in Kazakhstan is
"premature." The country is doing "quite well" in comparison to its
neighbors, especially considering its short history since
independence and the still-powerful influence of Russia. Kim
pointed out that Kazakhstan supported the United Nations resolution
on North Korea's human rights record, something he sees as evidence
of the country's changing world view. He noted that the leadership
is still shying away from supporting a similar resolution against
Uzbekistan, to which the Ambassador pointed out that "North Korea
does not share Kazakhstan's border."


9. (SBU) Turkey's Temur agreed with Ambassador Kim that Kazakhstan
is moving in the right direction. He noted that Turkey was one of
the first to support Kazakhstan's bid for the OSCE chairmanship, but
it also supported the EU in its criticism of the pending religion
law. "Progress is evident," he said, but "change has to be
incremental."

...AND A LONG-TERM VIEW


10. (SBU) Switzerland's Nellen raised the question of
"conditionality versus finality," what he explained to be the
difference between the policy of imposing strict bench-marks versus
a policy of concentrating on the broader end goals. Kazakhstan's
short-term outlook is "unlikely to satisfy," he said, but taking a
broader look at the country's overall political progression "offers
a very positive view." "There are certain things that the ruling
elite cannot yet accept, but at least it has allowed their
introduction," he stressed. "The government could see your grants
to Freedom House as support for the 'color revolution,'" he quipped
to the UK ambassador, "and yet it tolerates it."


11. (SBU) The Ambassador noted that while the United States has
also funded Freedom House, he has occasionally disagreed with its
assessments. He pointed out that Freedom House recently ranked
Kazakhstan as "not free" and lumped it with Uzbekistan,
Turkmenistan, and Belarus, where openness to independent press and
public discussion falls far below that in Kazakhstan. Such "public
diplomacy" from government-supported NGOs can sometimes work against
the "private diplomacy" we engage in with Central Asian governments,
he said. UK's Brummell countered that organizations like Freedom
House play an important role by "tenaciously highlighting the
issues," but agreed that it was important "not to preach and to
exercise humility."

THE WEST'S MIXED SIGNALS?


12. (SBU) Switzerland's Nellen ventured that "sometimes the West
sends mixed signals" to Kazakhstan. "We promise them the OSCE
chairmanship, but then criticize the Madrid legislation; we promote
our economic interests, but then hammer them on human rights," he
said. The Ambassador countered that, on the whole, all the
represented countries pursued a policy that balanced energy,
security, and political interests. All is in the eye of the
beholder, he stressed: NGOs can always find evidence that business
trumps human rights, and companies can always accuse us of putting
ideals over economic interests. In the end, we should continue with
the balanced approach, he stressed.


13. (SBU) The Dutch ambassador suggested that "human rights policy"
will gain greater traction if Kazakhstanis see it as in their own
best interest. Human rights is just part of the broader context of
rule of law, he explained, something Kazakhstan needs in order to
attract investment and foster economic growth. South Korea's Kim
said a similar approach could be taken with the religion law:
Kazakhstan should see that passing the restrictive legislation would
not bode well for its international image as a tolerant multi-ethnic
state. Canada's Skok agreed, but again stressed the need to be
patient. She reminded the participants that many democratic ideals

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they hold dear, for example gender equality, only very recently took
root in Western democracies and had initially to be legislated and
then followed by a long process of public "re-education."


14. (SBU) COMMENT: Somewhat to our surprise, the lunch produced a
consensus: while not ideal, the current Madrid-commitment
legislation is, nevertheless, a step forward on Kazakhstan's long
path toward democracy. Further, there was agreement that Kazakhstan
out-paces its neighbors in day-to-day democratic freedoms. Finally,
all agreed that patient engagement, rather than harsh criticism,
will better lead to our long-term democratic goals for Kazakhstan.
END COMMENT.