KAZAKHSTAN'S SENATE ELECTIONS NOT REALLY A TEST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASTANA 001819

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN'S SENATE ELECTIONS NOT REALLY A TEST
CASE FOR DEMOCRACY

SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) Kazakhstan's Senate elections will take place on
October 4, when local and regional maslikhats (legislatures)
will vote to fill 16 Senate seats. The government has
launched a wide media campaign to raise the profile of these
usually low-key elections and has invited international
organizations and foreign missions to "observe" them. The
maslikhats are dominated by the ruling Nur Otan party, so
there is little doubt that it will emerge as a landslide
winner. The opposition refuses to participate in an election
in which it maintains the results are "predetermined." Only
one opposition party, Ak Zhol -- a party shunned by the other
opposition parties -- has a candidate in the running.
Election monitoring NGOs are also skeptical that the
elections will bring any surprise results. End Summary.

SENATE ELECTION CAMPAIGN LAUNCHED
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2. (U) September 14 marked the beginning of the campaign
season for elections to Kazakhstan's Senate, the upper house
of parliament. The elections are scheduled for October 4,
when regional and local maslikhats (legislatures) will gather
in separate regional conferences to vote on filling 16 Senate
seats. The Senate consists of 47 Senators: 15 are directly
appointed by the President and 32 are elected by the
maslikhats, with two of these 32 Senate seats reserved for
each of country's fourteen oblasts and two for each of its
two largest cities, Astana and Almaty (which are administered
separately from the oblasts).


3. (U) Candidates for Senate seats are either nominated by
the maslikhats, or put their candidacies forward
independently. Those who clear the registration process
receive public financing (approximately $2,000 per candidate)
and are guaranteed access to the media. The system does not
make it easy for individuals with declared opposition-party
affiliation to complete, as party-affiliated contenders can
only get on the ballot through nomination by a maslikhat, all
of which are dominated by the ruling Nur Otan party. Of 88
candidates who initially declared their candidacies, 50
managed to get registered. Of these 50, 21 are members of
Nur Otan, 16 claim to be independents, and 12 opted not to
declare a party affiliation. One candidate is from Alikhan
Baimenov's Ak Zhol party -- a party which claims to be in the
opposition but which other opposition parties consider to be
part of the government's "pocket opposition." Ak Zhol's
candidate was apparently nominated by an maslikhat in
Kostanai oblast.

DEMOCRATIC TEST CASE ...
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4. (U) While the Senate elections usually garner little
notice, this time the government is keen to raise their
profile. In an extensive interview with the newspaper Litr
on September 13 under the headline "Test Case Elections," the
Central Election Commission (CEC) chairman Kuandyk
Turgankulov stressed that these are the last elections before
Kazakhstan's 2010 OSCE chairmanship and that they must take
place "in strict accordance with national legislation." The
CEC organized several training sessions for prospective
candidates, and television and print media have been filled
with extensive stories on the electoral process and
interviews with sitting Senators. The ruling Nur Otan party
went so far as to hold primaries to pick its candidates,
although critics pointed out that the primary process is much
better suited for direct elections, like those for the
Majilis, parliament's lower house. To underline the openness
and fairness of the upcoming contest, the government invited
international organizations, NGOs, and foreign governments
(including the U.S.) to send election "observers" on October

4.

... OR POLITICAL THEATER?
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5. (U) The opposition parties, predictably, are quite
cynical about the fairness and transparency of the upcoming
elections. The major opposition parties have declared that
they will not participate in what OSDP leader Zharmakhan
Tuyakbay called "the forthcoming farce." Tuyakbay told the
press that the results of the election are "predetermined" by
the fact that 85 percent of regional and local maslikhat
members are from "the one and only Nur Otan party." "The
system does not allow for any result other than a 100 percent
victory for the ruling party," he contended, "and OSDP does
not intend to give a veneer of competition" to the elections.
Communist Party leader Serikbolsyn Abdildin and Azat party

ASTANA 00001819 002 OF 002


head Bulat Abilov declared that they have no intention to
spend time and money on elections they are certain to loose.
Their decision was criticized by some political observers as
a lost opportunity to at least publicize their ideas and
party platforms.


6. (SBU) Civil society leaders are also pessimistic that the
upcoming contest will, as the government hopes, showcase
Kazakhstan's democratic development. Taskyn Rahimbekova,
head of the Republican Network of Independent Monitors, told
us that while her organization plans to monitor the
elections, she has "little doubt" of the results. She
believes it unlikely that Nur Otan maslikhat members will
buck the party and vote for candidates not pre-approved by
the party leadership. The sudden fury of activity around the
elections is "nothing more than a show, staged to enhance Nur
Otan's positive image," she said.

COMMENT
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7. (C) There seems to be little justification for the
"election fever" the government is trying to stoke. Since
the Senators will be selected by an "electorate" dominated
Nur Otan legislators, there is no uncertainty as to who will
emerge the winner. In this context, public election
campaigns and blitz educational outreach make little sense.
These are the last scheduled elections before 2010, however,
and it appears that some in the government have decided that
this is nevertheless a chance to showcase the electoral
process in Kazakhstan. End Comment.
MILAS