KAZAKHSTAN B1/B2 VALIDATION STUDIES

UNCLAS ASTANA 001698 UNCLAS ASTANA 000748 SIPDIS DEPT FOR CA/FPP: EHOLMES, CA/VO/F/P: MEARL, DS/CR/VG DEPT ALSO PASS TO KCC POSTS FOR FRAUD PREVENTION MANAGERS FRANKFURT FOR RCOS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: CVIS KFRD KZ SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN B1/B2 VALIDATION STUDIES ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Embassy Astana and Embassy Branch Office Almaty conducted validation studies of B1/B2 visa issuances. By combining results from DHS's Arrival Departure Information System (ADIS) and follow-up telephone calls, posts examined samples of B1/B2 issuances from August 1, 2007 - January 31, 2008 and discovered that a surprisingly small percentage of applicants overstayed or adjusted status; for Astana, the rate was 0.9%, and for Almaty the rate was 1.6%. END SUMMARY. -------------- The Validation Study -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Kazakhstan does not have consular districts to formally divide the NIV workload between Astana and Almaty, however the composition and geographic source of the NIV workload is different. B1/B2 applicants comprise only about 29% of Astana's annual NIV workload, but 56% of Almaty's. The major difference in composition comes from Summer Work and Travel; almost 40% of Astana's workload is from this program. Astana is located more than 1000 kilometers north of Almaty, a fact which is reflected in the geographic source of the applicants. Although applicants can go to either Almaty or Astana, as a practical matter virtually all residents of northern Kazakhstan go to Astana, and residents of southern Kazakhstan go to Almaty. ¶3. (SBU) Astana issued 639 B1/B2 visas from August 1, 2007 to January 31, 2008. Almaty issued 2,245 B1/B2 visas in the same time period. Samples were randomly chosen using Excel. Utilizing the expectation of a 7% rate of non-returning travelers derived from a past validation study, we chose sample sizes to be 95% confident of a deviation of +/- 2%; that is, to be 95% confident that the true non-return rate is between 5% and 9%. For Astana, this calculation implied a sample size of 316; we chose 320 visa recipients - exactly half the sample - as a round number. For Almaty, the calculation called for a sample size of 489; we chose 500 visa recipients as a round number. Both Almaty and Astana checked arrival and departure status using ADIS and/or phone calls. Of the 320 individuals checked in Astana, 3 did not return, a rate of 0.9%. Of the 500 individuals checked in Almaty, 8 did not return, a rate of 1.6%. For Astana, due to the combination of an extremely low non-return rate and a relatively large sample size, a meaningful two-sided confidence interval cannot be constructed. However, it is possible to say we are 95% confident the true non-return rate is not higher than 1.6%. For Almaty, we are 95% confident the population non-return rate is between 0.6% and 2.6%. As the confidence intervals for the two posts have a large amount of overlap, the deviation in the non-return rates between the two posts is not statistically significant. ¶4. (SBU) Refusal rates in Kazakhstan are not particularly high: for the sample period, Astana and Almaty had virtually identical non-adjusted refusal rates for B1/B2 applicants - 13.1% and 13.5%, respectively. Most refusals are concentrated in travelers having a sole B2 purpose. Reflective of the strength of Kazakhstan's economy recently (until the recent worldwide "credit crunch", the economy had been growing at about 9% a year for the past 5 years),business applicants are for the most part very strong. Common business applicants include employees of oil and oil services companies (both local and US-based),employees of local and international financial and services firms, and employees of large agricultural and mining concerns. ¶5. (SBU) Post was surprised and pleased by the non-return rate. Little insight can be gathered about trends, as the few visa recipients that did not return appear to be simply random occurrences. Of the eleven total non-returns, five legally changed status or extended their stays in the U.S. Six provided what appears to be intentionally misleading information in their applications. While the number of non-returns is too low to indicate trends, it does support post's long-held view of Kazakhstan as a low fraud environment.