SHEIK HASSAN DAHIR AWEYS' OPTIONS LIMITED BY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000609 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E, LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/30/2018 TAGS: PREL PINS ASEC SO ER SUBJECT: SHEIK HASSAN DAHIR AWEYS' OPTIONS LIMITED BY TRAVEL BAN REF: ASMARA 542 Classified By: CDA Melinda C. Tabler-Stone for Reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: A well-placed Somali contact said UN-imposed travel restictions on Sheik Aweys limit his ability to play a role in Somali national reconciliation, and non-Islamist hardline ARS members believe Aweys is the key to peace in Somalia and neutralizing al-Shabaab. The Eritrean government tightly controls the hardline Alliance for the Reliberation of Somalia (ARS) leadership in Asmara. Most hardline ARS members may soon leave Asmara and return to Somalia. END SUMMARY. COULD AWEYS BECOME A CONSTRUCTIVE PARTNER IN SOMALIA? -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) A hardline ARS member well-known to the Embassy (reftel) said that non-Islamist members of the hardline ARS believe that Aweys' ability to engage constructively in Somalia's future is greatly limited by his listing as a terrorist under UN Resolution 1267. The contact said Aweys would leave Eritrea "tomorrow," but he can't due to travel restrictions associated with 1267. Because these restrictions prevent Aweys from departing Eritrea by commercial flights, the contact believes Aweys would return to Somalia by traveling overland. His route would likely cut through Eritrea's and Ethiopia's Afar regions, bypassing Djibouti, and entering Somalia through Somaliland. AWEYS THE NATIONALIST -------------- ¶3. (C) The contact and other ARS hardliners believe Aweys is the key to uniting Somalia's various nationalistic factions (including the warlords) and marginalizing al-Shabaab. Because Aweys is highly regarded in the Hawiye clan, the contact believes Aweys' participation in a national reconciliation process would peel away most of al-Shabaab's Hawiye fighters and greatly weaken the organization. ¶4. (C) The contact also said that Aweys is a nationalist first, and has stated specifically that he is not interested in al-Qaeda's vision of a multi-national caliphate. He added that although Aweys favors implementing some aspects of Sharia law in Somalia, it is only as an expression of Somalia's Islamic culture, and that Aweys favors popular elections. AWEYS' ACTIVITIES CONTROLLED BY THE ERITREANS -------------- ¶5. (C) According to the contact, the Eritrean government requires all high-level ARS members (including Aweys) to clear any meetings with foreigners. The Eritrean government also provides talking points before meetings, and debriefs the meeting participants afterward. The contact said Eritrean national security agents questioned him at length regarding his dealings with Emboffs, and threatened him with expulsion from Eritrea if he continued. AL-TURKI CLAIMS AWEYS IS NOT A REAL MUSLIM -------------- ¶6. (C) The contact told Emboff of reports from Somalia that Sheik Hassan (Al-Turki) recently told al-Shabaab members that Aweys is no longer a "real Muslim," but only a nationalist. Pamphlets stating this were supposedly distributed in Kismayo some time last week. MOST ARS MEMBERS MAY SOON LEAVE ERITREA -------------- ¶7. (C) The contact also told Emboff that a top "lieutenant" from Somalia reportedly met with the hardline ARS leadership on 12/30 to discuss strategy. One item discussed was to have nearly all hardline ARS members in Eritrea to return to Somalia. Only three or four, including Aweys, would remain in Eritrea. ¶8. (C) COMMENT: The contact corroborated the Embassy's belief that the GSE exercises a high degree of control over the hardline ARS. ARS press statements are nearly identical to those from the Eritrean MFA. The GSE's control over the activities of Aweys while he resides in Asmara is ASMARA 00000609 002 OF 002 troublesome, given his ability to influence events in Somalia for good or ill, but from a post security standpoint it is desirable. END COMMENT. MCMULLEN