ASMARA ANGST

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000586 DEPTMARTMENT FOR AF/EX AND AF/E E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2018 TAGS: MOPS PGOV SOCI ASEC ER SUBJECT: ASMARA ANGST Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) Asmara is awash in speculation about domestic instability stemming from food shortages, economic decline, and stepped-up repression from the Isaias regime. In an isolated society with no media freedoms, Eritreans depend on "bado seleste," (akin to the grapevine or bush telegraph) for information deemed too sensitive or negative to appear in the regime-run media. The velocity of bado seleste news about splits within the regime and mounting public dissatisfaction is at its highest point in over a year. This buzz is a reflection of increased desperation among normal Eritreans hoping for signs of change. It also causes increased skittishness among regime insiders as they become increasingly concerned about their physical and job security. ¶2. (SBU) Given Post's limited ability to track down the origins of widely circulating "reports," Emboffs take a cautious approach to single-source unverified information. Much of the content of bado seleste news, including material appearing in exile websites, is conjecture, anti-regime propaganda, or exaggeration, although some of these stories may be based on at least a kernel of truth. Recent examples include: -- Major General Filipos was the target of an unsuccessful assassination attempt near the village of Nefasit. -- Major General Tekle, yielding to public protests and mutinous troops, has ignored orders to ban the movement of foodstuffs and other goods in southwestern Eritrea. -- 25 members of the Eritrean Navy, including 3 captains, deserted to Yemen in speedboats. -- Iran will take over facilities in the southeastern port city of Assab, including the defunct oil refinery. An Iranian or "Arab" submarine recently visited Assab. -- 58 members of the Air Force, including 11 officers, deserted en masse in October. -- Other members of the Air Force mutinied after defying orders to relocate from Asmara to Massawa. -- Troops publicly executed by firing squad a number of elders in the south-central town of Segenetti following public protests. -- Information Minister Ali Abdu has suffered a nervous breakdown; Finance Minister Berhane is abroad for a liver transplant. -- Army majors entered Asmara with a column of troops and paid "night visits" on regime insiders, warning them to reverse course to save Eritrea. -- The governor of Debub province (south of Asmara) had to call in troops to quell protesting farmers who had overcome local police after being told they must sell their crops to the government at far below market prices. 300 farmers were arrested. -- A private militia called "Way of the Revolution," run by the chief of Isaias' Praetorian Guard, Colonel Tesfaladet, has clashed with garrison troops deemed dangerously sympathetic to the local populace. Again, these incidents have not been corroborated by Post, but are provided as illustrative examples of bado seleste news reflecting the current zeitgeist in Asmara. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: Isaias' political stock may be near an all-time low. His strongest appeal remains his adroit manipulation of Eritrean nationalism. Most Eritreans are passionate patriots and are fiercely (and sometimes mystifyingly) proud of their country. When previously cornered, Isaias has wrapped the Eritrean flag tightly around his shoulders and called Eritreans to rally to the flag. In this system of one-man rule, the challenge for regime opponents is to somehow separate Isaias as a person from the cause of Eritrean nationalism. END COMMENT. MCMULLEN