IS ISAIAS UNHINGED?

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000345 SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2018 TAGS: PGOV AMED PINR ER SUBJECT: IS ISAIAS UNHINGED? Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for Reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (S/NF) SUMMARY: A well-connected businessman of Eritrean origin claims that President Isaias Afwerki is mentally ill and that his disastrous governance is generating concern among powerful actors within the Eritrean establishment. The businessman predicts Isaias will attempt to appease popular and elite discontent by axing one or more high-profile regime insiders in coming months, but that this will not provide a solution to Eritrea's woes. He foresees senior military and/or party leaders moving to oust or sideline Isaias within a year. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (S/NF) MISLED OR MENTALLY UNBALANCED? -------------- A wealthy dual-national businessman met with the ambassador in early July to discuss Eritrea's economic and political situation. He said that as President Isaias makes all decisions, even on a quotidian level, a discussion of politics and economics must focus on Isaias. He opined that many of the decisions taken by Isaias recently are contrary to the regime's own self-interest, leading the businessman to wonder whether Isaias is somehow being misled by his inner circle or if he is mentally unbalanced. The source noted that Isaias' manic behavior has become worse in the last year with his heavy drinking bouts, violent eruptions of temper, paranoia so severe he rarely talks on the telephone, and his total intolerance of disagreement or dissent. ¶3. (S/NF) A GROWING THREAT TO THE REGIME AND COUNTRY -------------- -------------- The widespread deprivations experienced by the Eritrean population are viewed by many as a direct result of decisions taken by Isaias. Heretofore, however, popular pride in Eritrea's independence and fear of Ethiopian irredentism have combined to shield Isaias and his regime from mass discontent arising from economic mismanagement and horrendous human rights abuses. That may be changing, the source stated, as widespread hunger and lack of hope for a better life are beginning to cause people to listen to their stomachs, rather than their heads or hearts. Powerful actors within the regime, he continued, believe that the scale has tipped against Isaias and are discussing changes that would preserve the status quo by ousting Isaias or diluting his power. ¶4. (S/NF) THE ARMY AND THE PARTY -------------- The businessman discussed and dismissed a number of potential sources of political change in Eritrea, including the National Security Agency, the Office of the President, a mass uprising, the diaspora, the business community, and former officials who retain a degree of popularity. He focused on "the majors general and the party." The senior army brass have both a political and personal (economic) stake in the status quo, he explained, and may move to form "a junta" if they felt the ruling establishment was further jeopardized by an increasingly unstable Isaias. General Filipos Woldeyohannes, being the commander of the Asmara region, would have the inside track in becoming top dog in any such junta, the source said. The Peoples Front for Democracy and Justice, Eritrea's sole political party, remains a well-disciplined national organization with substantial grassroots clout. The party could call a national congress, the businessman said, and select a new leader (the current party chief is medically incapacitated) who would provide policy direction to the government, with or without Isaias' consent. He described party leaders Zemihret Yohannes and Yemane Ghebreab as personable "communist ideologues" who lack political ambition. He said Defense Minister Sebhat Ephrem would be a consensus transitional pick, as he is popular among party members and soldiers, while boasting Struggle credentials equal to those of Isaias. ¶5. (S/NF) TOSS SOMEONE TO THE WOLVES? -------------- The source said Isaias plans to deflect criticism by axing one or more senior insiders, possibly as soon as September. He said the party's economic guru, Hagos Ghebrehiwet, is likely to be removed and blamed for the country's economic ASMARA 00000345 002 OF 002 freefall. This will not solve Eritrea's problem of being run by an unbalanced despot, the source continued, adding that the elites and the masses realize that Hagos is only doing Isaias' economic bidding. ¶6. (S/NF) THE ROT RUNS DEEP -------------- The recent death of Eritrean industrialist Mohammed Saleh Hagos under mysterious circumstances has generated fear within the hard-pressed business community. The businessman, who knew the late industrialist well, said Mohammed Saleh Hagos was likely murdered due to his deep involvement in illegal economic activities of various factions within the military and National Security Agency. He went on to characterize the military and party establishment as brutal and corrupt, commenting that a political change cementing the military or party's grip on power (by ousting or sidelining Isaias) would not necessarily provide the type of change that would be good for Eritrea, the region, or the United States. The Eritrean people "need and deserve democracy," he commented. He said if imprisoned former Defense Minister Petros Solomon were somehow freed and assumed a position of power, "the country would be safe." ¶7. (S) COMMENT -------------- While the businessman is well-regarded and has access to elite circles in Asmara and beyond, his contention that powerful actors will move against Isaias because his unhinged behavior is a threat to the regime's continuity is debatable. Twenty years ago Qaddafi was viewed by many as mentally ill, yet he remains in power. Isaias, a physically active 62 year old, is 22 years younger than Mugabe. Tyrannical leaders (Stalin, Ho Chi Minh, Castro, etc.) who helped found and/or preserve their nations often remain popular despite their seemingly irrational brutality. Isaias is a cagey, security-savvy fighter who eluded the Ethiopians for 30 years and has survived a number of assassination attempts since ¶1993. He is unlikely to go quietly into the night. ¶8. (S) COMMENT CONTINUED -------------- Isaias suffered a severe bout of cerebral malaria and was treated in Israel in the early 1990s. The Israeli ambassador here sometimes joked that "we must have mis-prescribed the president's meds," after particularly egregious behavior. Isaias also currently suffers from debilitating lower back pain, but otherwise appears healthy. Post would be interested in the observations of the regional psychologist or others regarding possible manifestations of Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD) in Isaias' behavior. Post gathers (from Jon Krakauer, who has written about leaders of religious cults) that NPD is characterized by: An exaggerated sense of self-importance, fantasies of unlimited success or power, a sense of entitlement, a lack of empathy, haughty or contemptuous behavior, a envy of others or belief that others are envious of him, belief that he is "special" and that normal rules don't apply to him, self-righteous indignation when others are believed to be breaking rules, and an intense reaction to criticism. All these seem to apply to Isaias Afwerki. End Comment. MCMULLEN