OLF CLAIMS TO BE FIGHTING FOR DEMOCRACY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000334 SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2018 TAGS: PINS PREL PGOV KDEM ER ET SUBJECT: OLF CLAIMS TO BE FIGHTING FOR DEMOCRACY Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for Reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Chairman of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF),Daawud Ibsa, believes his organization's support among Ethiopia's largest ethnic group bodes well for the OLF's chances in the event of fair elections in Ethiopia. He complained to the ambassador June 19 that PM Meles has failed to implement Ethiopia's progressive constitution and has systematically centralized power into his own hands and that of his political party, to the detriment of the Oromo people and democracy in Ethiopia. Ibsa claimed the OLF is engaged in armed struggle to promote the self-determination of the Oromo people as envisaged in the Ethiopian constitution and is militarily active on "Oromia's" western, southern, and eastern fronts. The ambassador urged the OLF to desist from armed struggle and, if it would not, to at least forgo acts of terrorism. End summary. ¶2. (C) Courteous Chairman -------------- OLF Chairman Daawud Ibsa, accompanied by the Washington-based AmCit director of the Oromo Relief Association (ORA),paid a courtesy call on the ambassador June 19 at the embassy. The Chairman provided background on the OLF's history and policies, emphasizing the OLF's coalition with the Tigrayan Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Eritrean Peoples Liberation Front (headed by Meles Zenawi and Isaias Afwerki, respectively),to oust Ethiopia's Mengistu regime. Ibsa said he was a charter member of the OLF's youth wing in the 1970s and was elected chairman of the OLF in 1999. He spoke English well and was polished in manner and dress. ¶3. (C) Falling-out with Meles -------------- Despite being comrades in arms in the 1980s and early 1990s, Ibsa said the OLF broke with the TPLF after the "snap elections" of 1992, in which the OLF's strong base of support in Addis Ababa and elsewhere shocked and scared Meles. Given that the Oromos constitute an estimated 40% of Ethiopia's population, Ibsa continued, combined with the OLF's demonstrated grass-roots support, Meles realized the OLF posed a clear threat to continued TPLF rule if a functioning democratic system were implemented. Ibsa claimed that after the TPLF-OLF break, Meles and Isaias cooperated against the OLF until the start of the 1998-2000 Border War. ¶4. (C) Democracy, the OLF's Route to Power -------------- Ibsa urged the USG to do more than criticize the Government of Ethiopia's human rights abuses against the Oromo people and others. He argued that the United States should press Meles to allow true democracy and the full implementation of Ethiopia's federal constitution, based on ethnic regions, as this would be the most effective way to mitigate human rights abuses and provide for good governance. Ibsa reasoned that because many Oromos support the OLF, and that the Oromos constitute a least a plurality of Ethiopia's population, then the OLF would likely be the largest political party if free elections were held. ¶5. (C) ...But Armed Struggle for Now -------------- The OLF chairman said his organization has turned to armed struggle to force the TPLF to allow the Oromo people to exercise their right of self-determination as promised in the federal constitution. Ibsa claimed the OLF is militarily active, mentioning bases in Kenya and Sudan. The ambassador advised the OLF to give up on armed struggle and work toward democracy peacefully. Ibsa looked dubious but did not comment. The ambassador then cautioned Ibsa about severe consequences for the OLF if it were to engage in acts of terrorism. He mentioned the May 20 bus bombing in Addis Ababa in which an AmCit, among others, was murdered. Ibsa replied that the TPLF is trying to paint the OLF with the terrorism brush, but the OLF is staunchly against all acts of terrorism. The OLF chairman warned that "Ethiopian brutality in the Ogaden and Oromia" is providing fertile ground for extremists advocating terrorism. ASMARA 00000334 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Sources of OLF Support -------------- Ibsa said that in the past USAID provided support to the OLF, but now the organization relies primarily on donations from abroad, including from Norwegian Church Aid and the Lutheran World Federation. The OLF (and/or the ORA) has offices in many countries with Oromo emigrant populations. He said Eritrea permitted the OLF to hold its 2004 General Conference in Eritrea, as well as a meeting of its Central Committee in March, 2008. We note the GSE allows the OLF to have a bare-bones office in a suburb of Asmara and that Ibsa travels on an Eritrean passport. ¶7. (C) Comment: The OLF, as described to us by Chairman Daawud Ibsa, faces three big challenges. First, the OLF needs to generate some hope of a democratic opening in Ethiopia, given the organization's belief in its promising prospects in a fair election. Second, as Eritrean hospitality always comes with strings attached, OLF members need to avoid being fully captured by Eritrea for use as cannon fodder or bomb planters in another proxy war between Isaias and Meles. Third, being a traditional ethno-nationalist movement with a large Muslim base, the OLF needs to provide young, disillusioned Oromos a political home more attractive than that proffered by firebrand Islamists who have made substantial inroads elsewhere in the region. All three challenges, from Embassy Asmara,s perspective, appear daunting, although we defer to Embassy Addis Ababa for a more thorough analysis of the OLF and its future. End Comment. MCMULLEN