BORDER CLASH - MUM'S THE WORD IN ASMARA

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000311 SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS DEPT FOR S/ES-OPS, AF/E, AF/FO, IO, INR E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/10/2018 TAGS: PREL MOPS PBTS ER DJ SUBJECT: BORDER CLASH - MUM'S THE WORD IN ASMARA REF: ASMARA 305 Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for Reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Eritrean government, party, media, and military officials are maintaining complete silence on the June 10-11 border clashes with Djibouti. No Eritrean media outlets have reported the incidents and the citizenry of Asmara are going about their daily routines in grim normalcy. The Djiboutian ambassador said the mass desertion of 30 Eritrean conscripts touched off the incidents, which have resulted in some four dozen Djiboutian casualties, including at least three KIA. Djiboutian ambassador is likely to be recalled June 12 and the Eritrean ambassador in Djibouti may be PNGed the same day. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) WHAT BORDER CLASH? -------------- In the face of embassy queries, at least six MFA officials have refused calls, canceled appointments, and/or feigned complete ignorance of any problem on the Djibouti border. Both the French and Djibouti embassies have received the same silent treatment. Not one word has been reported on local radio about the fighting and no unusual security measures are apparent in Asmara. Kids are playing soccer in the streets, horse carts are hauling scrap metal for recycling, and widows and amputees are selling gum and cigarettes on sidewalks ) in short, a normal day in downtown Asmara. ¶3. (C) THE DJIBOUTIAN AMBASSADOR IS PACKING -------------- The ambassador called on the Djiboutian ambassador June 11 to exchange views. Ambassador Gabobeh was just getting off the phone with the Djiboutian military commander as the ambassador entered his office. According to the Gabobeh, the trouble started late morning June 10 when 30 Eritrean conscripts jumped the line, causing their officers to fire at them as they deserted. Some startled Djiboutian troops returned fire, wildly. At 6:30 p.m. ("during evening prayer time") the Eritrea military opened up with a large-scale fusillade, which continued until 10:00 that evening. At 3:00 a.m. on June 11 "the Eritreans mounted massive attacks in two places along the border, causing many casualties, including three dead and between 30 and 50 wounded, ten very seriously," Gabobeh reported. He also mentioned that he was preparing to return to Djibouti, although he didn,t expect the official word to arrive until June 12. Another source indicated that the Eritrean ambassador in Djibouti would be PNGed June 12. ¶4. (C) OTHER REACTIONS IN ASMARA -------------- The French ambassador said it was possible that Djibouti would seek to invoke its mutual defense treaty with France over the clashes. He mentioned that France will conduct some oblique reconnaissance on the Eritrea side of Ras Doumeira to determine if Eritrean reinforcements are heading toward the border. If more Eritrean troops and materiel are moving forward, it could portend more, and more serious, fighting. If, however, there is no indication of preparations for sustained combat, the crisis may pass quickly, he opined. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: Two potentially connected events preceded the June 10-11 border clashes: the signing of the Somali reconciliation agreement in Djibouti June 9, and the execution of ten hungry, grumbling Eritrean troops "as an example" by the Eritrean military last week (REF). It has long been our contention that the border tension was related to Djibouti's role in hosting the UN-facilitated reconciliation talks between Somalia's Transitional Federal Government and the Eritrean-backed Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia. The strong reaction to the reported mass desertion by Eritrean soldiers, following on the reported summary execution of grumbling conscripts, could have been ordered by senior army officials to halt the constant desertions and rising tide of pre-mutinous behavior among Eritrea's long-suffering draftee army. END COMMENT. MCMULLEN