ARS REJECTIONISTS TO RALLY IN ASMARA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000309 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/10/2018 TAGS: PREL SO ER SUBJECT: ARS REJECTIONISTS TO RALLY IN ASMARA REF: ASMARA 269 ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Members of the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) who reject the June 9 reconciliation agreement with the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) reportedly will hold a conference in Asmara on June 15 in an attempt to unseat Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed as ARS leader - the result is likely to be rival groups claiming to represent the ARS. The meeting will ostensibly be open to the 178 members of the ARS Executive and Central Committees, but as the Eritrean government strongly opposes the reconciliation agreement, it is likely to stack the deck against Sheikh Sharif by granting visas only to those who oppose him, by threatening or bribing ARS members already in country, and by using foreign funding to influence ARS militia leaders on the ground in Somalia. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) A deep rift has emerged between ARS members who reject reconciliation and those, including most of the ARS senior leaders, who favor negotiations to end Somalia's 17 years of strife. The ARS senior leaders traveled to Nairobi in late March to meet with UN Special Representative for Somalia Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, participated in the ensuing May 10-15 UN-facilitated talks in Djibouti with the TFG, and reached agreement with the TFG at the May 31-June 8 round of discussions. Each of these meetings was seen by Asmara-based elements of the ARS general body as occurring without the consent of the full Alliance. The rejectionists cite a clause in the ARS bylaws stating that the Alliance must be based in Asmara, and accuse the senior leadership of violating these bylaws by conducting official business outside of the city. ¶3. (C) Rumors of a split within the ARS and a move to oust Sheikh Sharif as Chairman have circulated since the May Djibouti talks. The June 15 meeting represents the first concrete step towards dividing the ARS along the lines of reconcilers versus rejectionists. The purported bone of contention is whether discussions with the TFG should occur before or after the Ethiopian military fully withdraws from Somalia. Another important factor is the personal ambition of lower-level rejectionists who may hope for a higher position if the ARS deck is shuffled. ¶4. (C) Asmara contacts name the following individuals as possible candidates for leadership of the rejectionist factions of the ARS: - Zakariya Mohamoud Haji Abdi- 2nd Assistant to the Chairman. A noted resistance fundraiser in the United States and listed in USG lookout systems, Zakariya has been a vocal ringleader in denouncing Sheikh Sharif and has been identified in news articles as both the temporary Chairman of the ARS or as the new Chairman. On May 26, Zakariya sent a letter to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon condemning the Djibouti discussions, signing the letter as the "Acting Chair of the ARS." - Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys- Council of Islamic Courts. Although he holds no ARS position and, as far as Post knows, is not even an ARS member, he has become the primary spokesperson against the actions of the Alliance leadership. Some observers claim that Aweys serves as a mouthpiece for the Eritrean government (reftel). Aweys is said to command a following as large as that of Sheikh Sharif among Somalis, with a stronger following within the country than Sheikh Sharif (who reportedly has a large diaspora following). - Hussein Mohammed Aidid- 2nd Vice Chair of the Central Committee. Aidid is a relatively low-ranking officeholder of the ARS and is seen as an ambitious, unethical young man with little talent, following, or prospects. In conversation, he lays his claim to credibility as being the son of Somali warlord Mohammed Farah Aidid. Aidid is fluent in neither Arabic nor Somali and is difficult to understand in English. However, because of his family connections and his current (albeit low) position in the ARS, he is a potential candidate, and appears to have the Eritrean government's support. Aidid was prominently seated next to Sheikh Aweys in the "President's Box" during the May 24 Liberation Day festivities and was one of the primary speakers during the ARS' May 15 press conference denouncing the Djibouti ASMARA 00000309 002 OF 002 discussions. - Unknown/Relatively New Candidates. There is speculation that the ARS rejectionists may choose a relatively unknown candidate as their leader. Doing so could allow for a last-minute reinstatement of Sheikh Sharif as Chairman if there were a reconciliation between Sheikh Sharif and the ARS rejectionists. The Committees could then publicly claim that the elections were only for a temporary chairperson and that Sheikh Sharif's leadership was never in question. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: Splintering is something Somali groups have had lots of practice doing in recent decades, and we have no doubt that Eritrea will be able to persuade some ambitious and disaffected third or fourth tier ARS members to attempt to unseat the ARS leadership. With the ARS rejectionist faction holding its meeting in Asmara - a venue that ARS reconcilers fear with good reason - it is likely that a fair number of ARS members will be assembled to denounce the June 9 agreement and its authors. The resulting split will produce dueling ARS factions. If Eritrea has received foreign funding to support the ARS, which we believe to be the case, it is likely that the rejectionist faction will be able to supply the ARS militias on the ground in Somalia with funding, ammunition, and other logistics. With the encouragement and support of the ARS rejectionist faction, the ARS gunmen might choose to ignore the cease-fire provisions of the June 9 agreement, unless the reconciler faction has obtained alternate financing with which to influence events on the ground in Somalia. Al-Shabaab fighters will almost certainly continue their attacks regardless of what the ARS gunmen decide to do. END COMMENT. MCMULLEN