GSE ACTIVELY SEEKS TO DIVIDE ARS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000290 SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS DEPT FOR AF/E E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV SO ER SUBJECT: GSE ACTIVELY SEEKS TO DIVIDE ARS REF: ASMARA 269 Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for reason 1.4(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: A Finnish Parliamentarian who recently travelled from meetings with Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) members in Djibouti to meet with ARS members in Asmara emphasized that both sides expressed their desire to reunite. However, Asmara members have been discouraged from doing so by the Eritrean government. End Summary. Measuring the ARS Divide -------------- ¶2. (C) Ambassador and Emboffs met with Finland MP Pekka Haavisto and Antti Pentikainen, Director of the non-governmental organization FinnChurchAid, on May 26 to discuss rifts within the ARS. The Finns, on an independent fact-finding mission, recently met with ARS leadership in both Djibouti and Asmara. In all meetings, the common theme was a strong desire for reconciliation within the ARS. The Asmara contingent even expressed a willingness to allow UN peacekeepers and even U.S. troops within Somalia, a previous point of contention for the members remaining in Asmara. GSE "Micromanaging" ARS -------------- ¶3. (C) ARS Chairman Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed told Haavisto in Djibouti that the Government of the State of Eritrea (GSE) was obsessed with "micromanaging" the ARS, a situation which had pushed ARS leadership away from Eritrea and towards the UN-brokered discussions with the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). Sharif stated his ARS contingent would tell the Eritreans "thank you, but now it is time for us to stand on our own two feet." Haavisto said that in subsequent meetings, the Asmara-based ARS members also felt the GSE was overtly meddling in ARS affairs, including actively working to dissuade them from joining Sharif and the ARS leadership in Djibouti to discuss reconciliation of their group. Additionally, Yemane Ghebreab (the GSE's principal advisor on Somalia) informed Haavisto that the ARS has officially split and there is no reason for the membership in Asmara to travel to Djibouti. ¶4. (C) To bolster its claims of a split ARS, the GSE has employed second- and third-tier ARS members in Asmara, along with Council of Islamic Courts (CIC) spokesperson Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, as outspoken critics of Sharif, the ARS leadership, and the Djibouti May 10-15 talks (reftel). Sheikh Aweys and the 2nd Vice Chair of the Central Committee Hussein Aideed were also seated as prominent guests in the "President's Box" during Isaias Afwerki's Liberation Day speech on May 24. "Aweys is the Moral Authority" -------------- ¶5. (C) To counter the GSE's machinations towards scuttling a Somali reconciliation, Haavisto urged the United States to promote Sheikh Aweys as "the glue" to unite the Djibouti and Asmara ARS factions. According to the Finns, Aweys had stated he would be willing to see Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf maintain his position during a long-term peace process, a comment which they felt demonstrated Aweys' moderate stance. Adding that Aweys has a strong following among the Somali diaspora, Haavisto said that many Somalis in meetings in Asmara and Djibouti emphasized that Aweys serves as "the moral authority" for the Somali community, and even referred to him as "father." And Aweys' recent spate of public statements rejecting the Djibouti talks and threatening to replace Sheikh Sharif with a new ARS Chairman, Haavisto attributed to GSE meddling. ¶6. (C) Comment: GSE opposition to the UN-sponsored talks in Djibouti is no secret. For the Eritreans, the talks threaten their hold on the ARS, a hold which the GSE has been trying desperately to maintain via scare tactics and through securing the allegiance of a number of ARS "non-players," particularly diaspora members such as Aideed. Still unclear is whether the GSE has fully gained the cooperation of Sheikh Aweys, who - chameleon-like - conveniently assumes a more ASMARA 00000290 002 OF 002 moderate rhetoric in private conversations with foreign interlocutors than when under the GSE's watchful gaze. End Comment. MCMULLEN