ERITREA PESSIMISTIC ON SUDAN'S CPA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000254 SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2018 TAGS: PREL ER SU SO SUBJECT: ERITREA PESSIMISTIC ON SUDAN'S CPA ASMARA 00000254 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for Reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Eritrea's point man on Sudan, Abdella Jabir, believes "the Comprehensive Peace Accord (CPA) will not succeed because the SPLM's leadership is weak." He revealed that Eritrea has 40 monitors on the Chad-Sudan border and commented that Libya is "unreliable" as its priorities shift between Sudan and Chad. He was also pessimistic on Somali reconciliation prospects. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) ERITREA WANTS A UNITED SUDAN: -------------- Abdella Jabir, officially the Director of Organizational Affairs for Eritrea's ruling (and sole) political party, in fact manages the Isaias regime's Sudan portfolio under the overall foreign policy guidance of Yemane Ghebreab. During a May 7 courtesy call with the ambassador, Abdella shared his views on the current state of play in Sudan and provided an Eritrean perspective. He said Eritrea strongly supports a united and stable Sudan and is against secession by the South or any other region. He said he remains concerned about the slow implementation of the Eastern Sudan Peace Accord. He said Eritrea has had a somewhat rocky relationship with Sudan since 1993 and hopes Sudan will emerge as a friendly, stable neighbor. ¶3. (C) SPLM WEAK, CPA IN JEOPARDY: -------------- The death of SPLM leader John Garang was a huge loss for South Sudan; Salva Kiir has not shown the same strong leadership as his predecessor, Abdella stated. Abdella characterized the SPLM leadership as divided, inexperienced, and weak. He said the National Congress Party (NCP) cadres in Khartoum were relatively sophisticated, focused, well-organized, and flushed with oil money. He particularly worried that the NCP would exploit natural divisions within the SPLM, such as an effort by Khartoum to split Riak Machar and his Nuer followers from the Dinka-led SPLM. He flatly stated that he did not think the CPA would succeed, although it was in Eritrea's interest that it did. (NOTE: Abdella and Yemane Ghebreab are currently in Juba to attend the SPLM Congress. END NOTE.) ¶4. (C) BORDER MONITORS, PERFIDIOUS LIBYA: -------------- Abdella spoke rather bitterly about Libya, saying it was "unreliable" due to pendulum-like swings first in favor of Khartoum and then N'djamena. He groused that arrangements for Libyan financial and logistical support of the 40 Eritrean monitors situated in two locations along the Sudan-Chad border had been troublesome. He said the Eritrea monitors served alongside Libyan counterparts as agreed in a quadripartite pact among Sudan, Chad, Libya, and Eritrea. He said the 40 Eritrean monitors would be replaced by, or subsumed in, the Dakar Accord monitoring operation. We inferred that Abdella's pique with the Libyans arose due to the lack of expected financial transfers from Tripoli to Asmara (or more likely Malta, where the party keeps its accounts) in support of border monitoring. ¶5. (C) SOMALI RECONCILIATION: -------------- Regarding the UN-facilitated Somali reconciliation talks in Djibouti, Abdella opined that they would not be productive. Asked why, Abdella answered, "Because the UN is seeking to isolate Eritrea." (COMMENT: This apparent non sequitur highlights Eritrea's belief that it can exercise a veto over any Somali peace deal that does not suit Eritrean interests. Paramount among these is to prevent Ethiopia from making a graceful exit from Somalia with the help of the UN and the international community. END COMMENT.) ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: Abdella Jabir's rather unguarded comments preceded the May 10 JEM raid on Omdurman, which has likely thrown Eritrea's Sudan calculations for a loop. Abdella went ASMARA 00000254 002.2 OF 002 out of his way to stress that the United States and Eritrea have common interests in helping cement peace deals in southern and eastern Sudan, both of which are currently foundering, in his view. ¶7. MINIMIZE CONSIDERED. MCMULLEN