ARS ON AL-SHABAAB, SOMALI RECONCILIATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000155 SIPDIS SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS PTER SO ER SUBJECT: ARS ON AL-SHABAAB, SOMALI RECONCILIATION REF: NAIROBI 725 Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Senior members of the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) warned the ambassador March 19 that the unpopular Ethiopian "occupation" of Somalia is causing Somalis to hail al-Shabaab gunmen as heroes and freedom fighters. The ARS members stressed that al-Shabaab's values and objectives are not congruent with Somali culture and that, absent Ethiopian soldiers in Somalia, al-Shabaab would have little or no support. The ARS leaders who met with the ambassador, most of them former members of parliament, said al-Shabaab denounces them daily as "secularized." The ARS Central Committee is reviewing a draft reconciliation proposal. The ARS members strongly oppose the re-establishment of Somaliland's independence. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) ARS BAIT AND SWITCH: -------------- The ambassador and PolOff requested a meeting with ARS member and former Somali Minister of Gender and Family Affairs, Ms. Fowsiya Mohamed Sheikh, but when they appeared at the venue, the former minister suddenly excused herself after escorting the ambassador to a room full of ARS members. Seven senior ARS members were present, headed by former Speaker of Parliament Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adan. Other participants included former Puntland president Jama Ali Jama, former U.S. Marine Hussien Mohamed Farrah Aidid, former Minister of Finance (and current head of ARS internal security) Col. Omar Hashi Adan, and former Prime Minister of the Transitional National Government, Mohamed Abdi Yusuf. The meeting lasted over an hour. The ARS members were cordial and engaging. ¶3. (C) AL-SHABAAB BEING HAILED AS HEROES: -------------- The ARS members said that al-Shabaab is not part of the Alliance, but reported many Somalis view al-Shabaab fighters favorably due to al-Shabaab's ardent opposition to Ethiopian forces "occupying" Somalia. "Al-Shabaab is a problem and we are not accepting them," one member stated. Nevertheless, Adan continued, invitations to pan-Somali reconciliation efforts should include all parties, but if al-Shabaab rejects reconciliation, then it would be isolated. The Ethiopian presence in Somalia "is like raindrops that nourish al-Shabaab and cause it to grow," Adan stated. The ARS members said al-Shabaab's puritanical and extremist agenda is not in keeping with Somalia's traditional culture and society and, once the Ethiopian troops are out of Somalia, al-Shabaab's support will quickly diminish, the ARS members averred. They further revealed that al-Shabaab daily denounces the former MPs as having been "secularized," apparently a strong criticism in jihadi extremist circles. ¶4. (C) RECONCILIATION: -------------- When the ambassador asked about the February 10 draft reconciliation document (ref),Aidid said it was penned by members of the London diaspora and would soon be reviewed by the ARS Central Committee. He said elements under consideration include the introduction of an international peacekeeping (UN) force after an Ethiopian withdrawal, a reconciliation process perhaps facilitated by a neutral third party, and the creation of a broad-based government at peace with its neighbors. "There can be no solution while Ethiopia occupies Somalia," was the consensus sentiment of the ARS members. When asked who might be a facilitating third party, they were at a loss for an answer. ¶5. (C) SOMALILAND: -------------- The ARS members also spoke strongly about Somaliland and were concerned (and apparently misinformed) that Secretary Gates had proposed that the U.S. recognize Somaliland's independence. The ambassador mentioned A/S Frazer's February visit to Hargesa, explaining that the purpose of the trip was to encourage proper conduct of upcoming elections and that the United States looks to the AU lead regarding recognition ASMARA 00000155 002 OF 002 and related issues. The ARS members were unanimously supportive of Somali unity and said any grievances Somalilanders might have should be addressed via democratic means within a united Somalia. They opined that Ethiopia historically longed for an outlet to the sea and still sought to "annex" some or all of Somalia to fulfill that desire. The ARS official line is that, "A peaceful, united Somalia would serve the strategic interest of the U.S. as well as the stability of the region." ¶6. (SBU) ARS POINTS: -------------- Among the ARS "Talking Points" handed the ambassador were the following: -- The Ethiopian forces should immediately and unconditionally withdraw from Somalia; -- No dialogue with the TFG as long as Ethiopia is in Somalia; -- The ARS supports Somalia's unity and territorial integrity; -- International actors, including the U.S., should avoid the imposition of unpopular leadership on the Somali people; -- The U.S. should deal with the ARS as a credible national political organization; and -- The ARS is ready to engage with the United States and is ready to listen to U.S. concerns. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: Sharif Hassan Sheik Adan, Chairman of the ARS Central Committee, was clearly calling the shots for this component of the Alliance. The foremost ARS objective is to get Ethiopia out of Somalia, probably to enable it to take power or play a substantial role in a coalition government. The ARS claim that the Ethiopian presence in Somalia is fueling al-Shabaab's popularity may have some credence, but we remain dubious about its contention that al-Shabaab's support would fade away after an Ethiopian withdrawal. It was, after all, the ICU that gave al-Shabaab a prominent role before the Ethiopian intervention. This secularized part of the ARS seems to view al-Shabaab as a pit bull harrying the Ethiopians, a dangerous animal that could be leashed, put down, or kicked out at a later date. We remain skeptical. The former MPs may have long and impressive resumes, but as a group they are not dominant within the overall ARS leadership, seem to have little clout on the ground in Somalia, and could not articulate a vision of a stable, prosperous Somalia or a way to get there. END COMMENT. MCMULLEN