TURKMENISTAN: GOVERNMENT STILL MAKES FARMERS GROW WHEAT,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 000872 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EEB ANKARA ALSO FOR AGRICULTURE COUNSELOR E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV EAGR ECON SENV SOCI TX SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN: GOVERNMENT STILL MAKES FARMERS GROW WHEAT, BUT POLICY MIGHT SOON CHANGE ¶1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet. ¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY: Lack of precipitation this spring and shortage of irrigation water has led to lower crop yields. The government has not released any statistics on the harvest, but the overall production is expected to be lower than last year. There is some indication that the government may abandon its policy of wheat self-sufficiency and concentrate its resources on growing cotton, but this could prove to be even more disastrous than current policies. It would be better to allow market forces to resuscitate the agricultural industry and develop a more diversified and efficient farming sector that is better suited to the conditions and food needs of Turkmenistan. END SUMMARY. FIELD OBSERVATIONS ¶3. (SBU) During trips to Lebap and Mary provinces on June 18 and 20 (these are Turkmenistan's two major wheat-growing provinces), Pol/Econ Assistant found that most wheat fields had already been harvested. A large number of weedy and low-yield fields were left unharvested. Farmers in Lebap and Mary provinces reported that the lack of precipitation this spring and the shortage of irrigation water caused low yields. They expected the overall harvest to be much lower than last year. (NOTE: In 2007, Turkmenistan's wheat production did not exceed 800,000 tons. END NOTE.) State media reported that 887,000 hectares were under cultivation for wheat, with 1,600,000 tons as the 2008 production target. One farmer suggested that with the average yield of about 1.5 tons per hectare and 55-60% of output going for animal fodder, the actual amount of food grain that Turkmenistan can produce is less than 1 million tons. In private, a farmer from Mary Province told Pol/Econ Assistant that because officials had already reported inflated figures for the wheat acreage, they no doubt would have done the same for the harvest figures. Pol/Econ Assistant observed some abandoned farms in Mary Province, which were not in use because of lack of irrigation water. PROVINCIAL GOVERNORS WILL COLLECT TO "THE LAST STALK" ¶4. (SBU) Although the wheat harvesting campaign is reportedly almost half-way through, the government has not released any harvest statistics. This is in contrast with previous years' practice. Asked about Lebap Province's plan for wheat, farmers reported that local officials did not discuss this issue in public, but followed the president's instructions to collect all the wheat "until the final stalk." As in the past, provincial governors interpreted these instructions as permission to forcefully confiscate even wheat produced beyond farmers' contract obligations, which by law farmers are supposed to be allowed to keep for their personal use. This policy discourages farmers from improving their yields. A private flour miller from Lebap Province reported that his flour milling business is low at this time of the year because farmers are afraid to disclose their extra wheat and are waiingt to mill it at a later time. COTTON MIGHT TAKE PREFERENCE OVER WHEAT ¶5. (SBU) There is a possibility that in the near future the government might abandon its politically-driven and economically-unfeasible policy of grain self-sufficiency, established by the late President Niyazov, and concentrate its resources instead on growing cotton as an export cash crop. A local expert said that Turkmenistan should limit its wheat growing to areas closest to the Kopetdag Mountains to make use of natural irrigation. This will allow the country to use its limited irrigation water for growing cotton. There is some indication that the government is already moving in this direction. In Ahal Province, the government designated Anau and Baharly districts, which are located along the Kopetdag Mountains and get enough moisture in normal years, as key wheat-growing areas, and identified ASHGABAT 00000872 002 OF 002 Tedjen district, located on the Karakum Canal, as Ahal Province's main cotton-growing area. ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: While the idea of focusing mainly on cotton as a cash crop is economically attractive, it poses a risk of further environmental degradation. If things are really to change, the government needs to allow market forces to resuscitate the agricultural industry and develop a more diversified and efficient farming sector that is better suited to the conditions and food needs of Turkmenistan. END COMMENT. HOAGLAND