Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08ASHGABAT872
2008-07-11 09:00:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Ashgabat
Cable title:
TURKMENISTAN: GOVERNMENT STILL MAKES FARMERS GROW WHEAT,
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 000872
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EEB
ANKARA ALSO FOR AGRICULTURE COUNSELOR
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV EAGR ECON SENV SOCI TX
SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN: GOVERNMENT STILL MAKES FARMERS GROW WHEAT,
BUT POLICY MIGHT SOON CHANGE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 000872
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EEB
ANKARA ALSO FOR AGRICULTURE COUNSELOR
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV EAGR ECON SENV SOCI TX
SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN: GOVERNMENT STILL MAKES FARMERS GROW WHEAT,
BUT POLICY MIGHT SOON CHANGE
1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet.
2. (SBU) SUMMARY: Lack of precipitation this spring and shortage of
irrigation water has led to lower crop yields. The government has
not released any statistics on the harvest, but the overall
production is expected to be lower than last year. There is some
indication that the government may abandon its policy of wheat
self-sufficiency and concentrate its resources on growing cotton,
but this could prove to be even more disastrous than current
policies. It would be better to allow market forces to resuscitate
the agricultural industry and develop a more diversified and
efficient farming sector that is better suited to the conditions and
food needs of Turkmenistan. END SUMMARY.
FIELD OBSERVATIONS
3. (SBU) During trips to Lebap and Mary provinces on June 18 and 20
(these are Turkmenistan's two major wheat-growing provinces),
Pol/Econ Assistant found that most wheat fields had already been
harvested. A large number of weedy and low-yield fields were left
unharvested. Farmers in Lebap and Mary provinces reported that the
lack of precipitation this spring and the shortage of irrigation
water caused low yields. They expected the overall harvest to be
much lower than last year. (NOTE: In 2007, Turkmenistan's wheat
production did not exceed 800,000 tons. END NOTE.) State media
reported that 887,000 hectares were under cultivation for wheat,
with 1,600,000 tons as the 2008 production target. One farmer
suggested that with the average yield of about 1.5 tons per hectare
and 55-60% of output going for animal fodder, the actual amount of
food grain that Turkmenistan can produce is less than 1 million
tons. In private, a farmer from Mary Province told Pol/Econ
Assistant that because officials had already reported inflated
figures for the wheat acreage, they no doubt would have done the
same for the harvest figures. Pol/Econ Assistant observed some
abandoned farms in Mary Province, which were not in use because of
lack of irrigation water.
PROVINCIAL GOVERNORS WILL COLLECT TO "THE LAST STALK"
4. (SBU) Although the wheat harvesting campaign is reportedly almost
half-way through, the government has not released any harvest
statistics. This is in contrast with previous years' practice.
Asked about Lebap Province's plan for wheat, farmers reported that
local officials did not discuss this issue in public, but followed
the president's instructions to collect all the wheat "until the
final stalk." As in the past, provincial governors interpreted
these instructions as permission to forcefully confiscate even wheat
produced beyond farmers' contract obligations, which by law farmers
are supposed to be allowed to keep for their personal use. This
policy discourages farmers from improving their yields. A private
flour miller from Lebap Province reported that his flour milling
business is low at this time of the year because farmers are afraid
to disclose their extra wheat and are waiingt to mill it at a later
time.
COTTON MIGHT TAKE PREFERENCE OVER WHEAT
5. (SBU) There is a possibility that in the near future the
government might abandon its politically-driven and
economically-unfeasible policy of grain self-sufficiency,
established by the late President Niyazov, and concentrate its
resources instead on growing cotton as an export cash crop. A local
expert said that Turkmenistan should limit its wheat growing to
areas closest to the Kopetdag Mountains to make use of natural
irrigation. This will allow the country to use its limited
irrigation water for growing cotton. There is some indication that
the government is already moving in this direction. In Ahal
Province, the government designated Anau and Baharly districts,
which are located along the Kopetdag Mountains and get enough
moisture in normal years, as key wheat-growing areas, and identified
ASHGABAT 00000872 002 OF 002
Tedjen district, located on the Karakum Canal, as Ahal Province's
main cotton-growing area.
6. (SBU) COMMENT: While the idea of focusing mainly on cotton as a
cash crop is economically attractive, it poses a risk of further
environmental degradation. If things are really to change, the
government needs to allow market forces to resuscitate the
agricultural industry and develop a more diversified and efficient
farming sector that is better suited to the conditions and food
needs of Turkmenistan. END COMMENT.
HOAGLAND
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EEB
ANKARA ALSO FOR AGRICULTURE COUNSELOR
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV EAGR ECON SENV SOCI TX
SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN: GOVERNMENT STILL MAKES FARMERS GROW WHEAT,
BUT POLICY MIGHT SOON CHANGE
1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet.
2. (SBU) SUMMARY: Lack of precipitation this spring and shortage of
irrigation water has led to lower crop yields. The government has
not released any statistics on the harvest, but the overall
production is expected to be lower than last year. There is some
indication that the government may abandon its policy of wheat
self-sufficiency and concentrate its resources on growing cotton,
but this could prove to be even more disastrous than current
policies. It would be better to allow market forces to resuscitate
the agricultural industry and develop a more diversified and
efficient farming sector that is better suited to the conditions and
food needs of Turkmenistan. END SUMMARY.
FIELD OBSERVATIONS
3. (SBU) During trips to Lebap and Mary provinces on June 18 and 20
(these are Turkmenistan's two major wheat-growing provinces),
Pol/Econ Assistant found that most wheat fields had already been
harvested. A large number of weedy and low-yield fields were left
unharvested. Farmers in Lebap and Mary provinces reported that the
lack of precipitation this spring and the shortage of irrigation
water caused low yields. They expected the overall harvest to be
much lower than last year. (NOTE: In 2007, Turkmenistan's wheat
production did not exceed 800,000 tons. END NOTE.) State media
reported that 887,000 hectares were under cultivation for wheat,
with 1,600,000 tons as the 2008 production target. One farmer
suggested that with the average yield of about 1.5 tons per hectare
and 55-60% of output going for animal fodder, the actual amount of
food grain that Turkmenistan can produce is less than 1 million
tons. In private, a farmer from Mary Province told Pol/Econ
Assistant that because officials had already reported inflated
figures for the wheat acreage, they no doubt would have done the
same for the harvest figures. Pol/Econ Assistant observed some
abandoned farms in Mary Province, which were not in use because of
lack of irrigation water.
PROVINCIAL GOVERNORS WILL COLLECT TO "THE LAST STALK"
4. (SBU) Although the wheat harvesting campaign is reportedly almost
half-way through, the government has not released any harvest
statistics. This is in contrast with previous years' practice.
Asked about Lebap Province's plan for wheat, farmers reported that
local officials did not discuss this issue in public, but followed
the president's instructions to collect all the wheat "until the
final stalk." As in the past, provincial governors interpreted
these instructions as permission to forcefully confiscate even wheat
produced beyond farmers' contract obligations, which by law farmers
are supposed to be allowed to keep for their personal use. This
policy discourages farmers from improving their yields. A private
flour miller from Lebap Province reported that his flour milling
business is low at this time of the year because farmers are afraid
to disclose their extra wheat and are waiingt to mill it at a later
time.
COTTON MIGHT TAKE PREFERENCE OVER WHEAT
5. (SBU) There is a possibility that in the near future the
government might abandon its politically-driven and
economically-unfeasible policy of grain self-sufficiency,
established by the late President Niyazov, and concentrate its
resources instead on growing cotton as an export cash crop. A local
expert said that Turkmenistan should limit its wheat growing to
areas closest to the Kopetdag Mountains to make use of natural
irrigation. This will allow the country to use its limited
irrigation water for growing cotton. There is some indication that
the government is already moving in this direction. In Ahal
Province, the government designated Anau and Baharly districts,
which are located along the Kopetdag Mountains and get enough
moisture in normal years, as key wheat-growing areas, and identified
ASHGABAT 00000872 002 OF 002
Tedjen district, located on the Karakum Canal, as Ahal Province's
main cotton-growing area.
6. (SBU) COMMENT: While the idea of focusing mainly on cotton as a
cash crop is economically attractive, it poses a risk of further
environmental degradation. If things are really to change, the
government needs to allow market forces to resuscitate the
agricultural industry and develop a more diversified and efficient
farming sector that is better suited to the conditions and food
needs of Turkmenistan. END COMMENT.
HOAGLAND