TURKMENISTAN: HYDROCARBON AGENCY'S MURADOV

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 000049 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EUR/RUS, EUR/CARC, EEB PLEASE PASS TO USTDA DAN STEIN ENERGY FOR EKIMOFF/THOMPSON COMMERCE FOR HEUPER E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV EPET RS KZ TX SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN: HYDROCARBON AGENCY'S MURADOV CONFIRMS CASPIAN LITTORAL PIPELINE COST STRUCTURE UNDECIDED REF: ASHGABAT 0033 Classified By: Charge Richard E. Hoagland for reasons 1.4(B) and (D). ¶1. (U) See action request in para 11. ¶2. (C) SUMMARY: During a January 10 meeting, the Executive Director of Turkmenistan's State Agency for Management and Use of Hydrocarbon Resources, Byrammurat Muradov, told the Charge that press reports that each of the three countries involved in construction of a new Caspian littoral pipeline is responsible for financing its own segment are not entirely true. Under the littoral pipeline agreement signed December 20 in Moscow, each country will own the section of the pipeline on its soil and will be responsible for deciding the financing for that section. The financing structure itself remains undecided as the countries seek to identify whether to fund through a consortium or on their own. However, Muradov expects decisions in the next month, with pipeline construction to begin as early as the second half of 2008. (COMMENT: Wildly optimistic. END COMMENT.) Muradov also confirmed that Turkmenistan will carry out a new audit of its hydrocarbon reserves, probably through a foreign firm, and that it will likely make public the general results in an effort to boost Turkmenistan's credibility. The State Agency still feels insecure negotiating various types of agreements. At least some of the delay in U.S. companies' ongoing negotiations with the State Agency may be due to its continued lack of understanding of international hydrocarbon practices and agreements. END SUMMARY. ¶3. (SBU) Charge met with Muradov January 10 to discuss with the State Agency head the status of the training program developed by the U.S. Trade and Development Agency (USTDA). The Charge said the program would start in mid-February, which Muradov welcomed. The Charge also gave Muradov a heads-up that Ambassador Steve Mann might visit soon to discuss energy issues. Meredov said he would warmly welcome such a visit. CASPIAN LITTORAL PIPELINE: EACH COUNTRY OWNS ITS OWN SECTION ¶4. (C) Noting that there is much interest in the United States and Europe in the Caspian littoral pipeline, the Charge asked whether each country would pay for the construction of its own section, as reported in the press. Muradov responded this information is not quite true. Each country -- Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Russia -- will own the section of the pipeline on its territory. In addition, under the terms of the agreement signed in Moscow on December 20, the pipeline's financing structure is also quite flexible: each country can decide whether it wants domestic or foreign financing, or a combination of the two. FINANCING STILL UNRESOLVED ¶5. (C) Muradov said Turkmenistan is still internally discussing financing options and expects to reach a decision on what type of tender it wants to offer within a month. All three countries are discussing their options. If they reach a decision to issue one tender for the entire pipeline, the tender decision must be vetted and fully approved by all three countries. However, he emphasized, Turkmenistan is looking at several scenarios, including a single three-country tender for financing the pipeline, or a tender for just Turkmenistan's portion of the pipeline. Noting that Turkmenistan is consulting with various international experts, he invited the United States to offer its opinion. ¶6. (C) One of the options Turkmenistan is considering is ASHGABAT 00000049 002 OF 003 forming a consortium with Kazakhstan, Muradov said. Even if it decides to form a financing consortium, however, it is important that the Turkmenistan section of the pipeline belong to Turkmenistan. This puts the country in a favorable position, Muradov emphasized. He suggested that pipeline construction could begin in the second half of 2008. (COMMENT: This seems wildly optimistic. END COMMENT.) Turkmenistan's main objective at this point is to make a decision on the financing structure for its section of the pipeline, and to prepare the tender. Muradov mused the proposed USTDA training for the State Agency would have been useful two months ago. NEW AUDIT WILL STRENGTHEN CREDIBILITY ¶7. (C) Responding to a question on the new audit of Turkmenistan's hydrocarbon reserves that the president ordered in a December 29 cabinet meeting, Muradov confirmed that Turkmenistan will carry out the audit in order to try to resolve questions about the volume of Turkmenistan's reserves. They hope to hire an international firm this year to allay any doubts about the audit's integrity. The amount of time required to carry it out will depend on the auditors chosen, as well as the scope of work involved and the auditors' efficiency. While Turkmenistan will consider the details of the auditing results to be proprietary information, it recognizes that it needs to make the general results public to enhance the country's credibility. When the Charge congratulated Muradov on the care and attention to Turkmenistan's interests that officials are giving to oil and gas decisions, Muradov said, "Our president set a goal, and we have to try to achieve this." CONOCOPHILLIPS NEGOTIATIONS CLOSEST TO AGREEMENT ¶8. (C) When the Charge asked how Turkmenistan's negotiations with several international companies -- Chevron, ConocoPhillips/Lukoil and BP -- have been going, Muradov said that negotiations with ConocoPhillips/Lukoil were the closest to reaching an agreement. The State Agency has had serious, detailed discussions with ConocoPhillips, and will have a new round of negotiations shortly. While there are still differences between the two sides, Muradov suggested that ConocoPhillips/Lukoil seems to understand the reasons for Turkmenistan's position. If ConocoPhillips/Lukoil's position has not changed since the last round of negotiations, he predicted, the two sides could reach an agreement very soon. He said, "We are very, very close." BP AND CHEVRON PROPOSALS NEED ADDITIONAL TIME ¶9. (C) By comparison, Muradov said, Chevron and BP are serious companies, but those negotiations will take additional time. He said BP has explained in general terms its philosophy for developing the Caspian Sea, but has not yet offered a concrete proposal. Chevron offered a joint venture -- an idea that Turkmenistan likes -- but the government needs additional time to evaluate the proposal. MURADOV REQUESTS LIST OF REPUTABLE HYDROCARBONS ATTORNEYS ¶10. (C) The Charge reminded Muradov that it is possible to hire international lawyers to review final contracts before signature, as Bulgaria recently did before signing an agreement Russia had proposed for the Southstream pipeline. The lawyers Bulgaria hired significantly helped the government. Muradov said that Turkmenistan wants to hire lawyers, but several companies do not have good reputations. He added, "The quality and integrity of the person is more important than the size of the company." Agreeing that ASHGABAT 00000049 003 OF 003 Turkmenistan needs real experts, the Charge suggested that Turkmenistan consult with Kazakhstan to learn which international law firms Astana has employed. "We've done that," Muradov replied, "but we'd gladly take your recommendations as well." The Charge agreed to provide a list of experienced law firms that specialize in international hydrocarbon law, but stressed that the U.S. government cannot recommend any particular firm. Muradov said, "We accept your offer with pleasure." ACTION REQUEST ¶11. (U) Embassy requests the assistance of the Departments of Energy and Commerce in compiling a list of firms/attorneys experienced in international hydrocarbon law that it can pass as soon as possible to the State Agency. ¶12. (C) COMMENT: Unlike many of his government counterparts, Muradov tends to be relatively straightforward in meetings, usually demurring rather than lying in response to questions he does not want to or cannot answer. Most of what he said on the Caspian littoral pipeline and the audit rings true. More striking, however, was the eager enthusiasm with which he accepted the Charge's offer of a list of internationally recognized contract attorneys with experience in the hydrocarbon sector. All this seems to confirm reftel's suggestion that the State Agency continues to feel out of its league after nearly ten months of operations. END COMMENT. HOAGLAND