TURKMENISTAN: ANOTHER NEW IDEOLOGY? WHAT'S IN IT FOR ME?

UNCLAS ASHGABAT 000323 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL, SCA/PPD USAID/W FOR EE/AA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV SOCI KDEM TX SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN: ANOTHER NEW IDEOLOGY? WHAT'S IN IT FOR ME? ¶1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet. ¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY: In January, President Berdimuhamedov announced his new "Great Revival Epoch" ideology, based on the principle of "government for the people." The new ideology claims to guide developmental reforms that Berdimuhamedov initiated to strengthen the rule of law and promote a market economy in Turkmenistan. But it also seems to be a vehicle for phasing out former President Niyazov's Ruhnama ideology. So far, the state-controlled media - and the government - have been unable to articulate the goals and potential benefits of the ideology, leaving citizens to wonder how this is really "for the people." END SUMMARY. WHY A NEW IDEOLOGY? ¶3. (SBU) On January 19, during a widely reported meeting with Turkmenistan's intelligentsia, President Berdimuhamedov unveiled a new ideology for Turkmenistan. According to him, "Further strengthening of the state and its successful transition to a new stage of development requires an absolutely new ideology based on reality and the needs of the new period." He stated the new goals include the creation of a market economy and improved living standards, and he exhorted that "all efforts" should be directed toward achievement of these goals. However, he did not indicate how the new ideology is to guide reform, how his reforms will be implemented, or what the concrete results will be "for the people." (COMMENT: The concept of a state ideology is deeply ingrained in Turkmenistan. For most of the 20th century, it was Soviet Communism. For much of the period after independence, it was Niyazov's basically incoherent and fatuous Ruhnama. END COMMENT.) TRANSITION FROM RUHNAMA ¶4. (SBU) President Niyazov's much ridiculed Ruhnama is headed for the dustbin of history - or, at the very least, for the remainder table and then pulping. Ruhnama is no longer read on television, Ruhnama Corners in public buildings are gathering dust, and the ubiquitous Ruhanama billboards are disappearing. But with Ruhnama fast fading away, there seems to be a hollow spot, or at least the government seems to think there is, for a guiding ideology. ¶5. (SBU) But the ovine official journalists are unable to make the case for the new ideology. They seem stuck in the rut of a journalistic style that fears to misinterpret the leader and so rely on flowery locutions and vague generalities saying, in the end, essentially nothing. Probably equally important, they likely have only a general concept of "market economy" and what concrete benefits it could bring. And so they fall back on the tried and true - praising the leader for his new ideology. POPULAR REACTION - NOT IMPRESSED ¶6. (SBU) Because of the leadership's and media's failure to explain the importance of developing a market economy, people do not understand the focus or implications of the president's reforms. And it's sometimes debatable whether he himself truly understands them, or if he's simply chosen a topic sentence for his new paragraph but has yet to add the supporting detail. Instead, Turkmenistan's citizens naturally view the government's reform policies by the impact of those policies on their daily lives, on own economic status. When they see the 800% increase in the price of gasoline and the ever-rising cost of food, the new reform ideology of "government for the people" can seem ironic at best, and sometimes even cynical. HOAGLAND