TURKMENISTAN: SCENESETTER FOR THE VISIT OF

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 ASHGABAT 001480

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ECON EPET SNAR SOCI MARR TX
SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN: SCENESETTER FOR THE VISIT OF
TRANSCOM COMMANDER GENERAL MCNABB


1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet.


2. (SBU) SUMMARY: Embassy Ashgabat warmly welcomes your
visit to Turkmenistan as an important opportunity to advance
our bilateral dialogue in the area of military cooperation.
Your visit to Turkmenistan follows Department of Commerce DAS
Paul Dyck,s visit at the end of September. The Deputy
CENTCOM Commander, Major General Allen, was the last senior
defense official to visit Ashgabat, also at the end of
September. President Bush met briefly with President
Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov on April 3 at the NATO Summit in
Bucharest. Now approaching his second year of presidency,
Berdimuhamedov is increasingly self-confident and will not
hesitate to speak his mind. We believe his instincts are
generally right, even if his understanding is elementary and
his implementation timelines unrealistically quick.
Turkmenistan will gradually bring its standards -- including
educational and human rights -- more in line with
international levels. But he's starting from almost zero
with very few on his team who have the experience and
capacity to implement the reforms he says he wants. Like
many ex-Soviet governments, Turkmenistan relies too heavily
on presidential decrees and the power of law-on-paper. The
longer-term monumental task will be to change a century of
national political psychology, the entrenched bureaucracy,
and the culture of rent-seeking. END SUMMARY.


3. (SBU) Nearly two years into the new era, it is clear
Turkmenistan is becoming significantly different from the
international bad-joke pariah state it was under the late
President-for-Life Niyazov. But precisely what Turkmenistan
is becoming is still a work in progress. Evidence
increasingly suggests it could well one day become a
responsible partner for the United States and a normal
international player. Berdimuhamedov's fundamental policies
have been promising. However, he faces an uphill struggle
against political traditions that favor autocratic governance
models and a bureaucratic capacity stunted by 15 years of
Niyazovian repression and solipcism. The challenge will not
be to get new reforms on the books -- Berdimuhamedov is
already beginning to do this -- but rather, to change the
attitudes and modi operandi of those officials responsible
for implementing the new policies.

DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS


4. (SBU) President Berdimuhamedov has made a public
commitment to bring Turkmenistan's laws and practices --
including those relating to human rights -- up to
international standards. On his order, the country's legal,
human rights and legislative bodies are working overtime to
rewrite or draft more than 30 laws and codes, including on
religion and civic organizations, family, criminal, and
criminal procedure codes. In late September, a revised
National Constitution was adopted, and included provisions
for a strengthened and enlarged Mejlis (parliament),
eliminated many of former President Niyazov's strange
addenda, and contained some rights-related textual changes
that the international community had suggested. Most
notably, it eliminated the Halk Maslahaty (Peoples' Council),
an oversized, bureaucratic, and largely rubber stamp body
whose powers have largely been transferred to the Mejlis. A
new law on election to the Mejlis has also been adopted, and
elections to an expanded (now 125-seat) parliament will be
held in December.


5. (SBU) In seeking to promote democratic development and
strengthened respect for human rights, the Embassy is working
with the newly empowered Institute of Democracy and Human
Rights, which is one of the government bodies most open to
and cooperative with foreign donors. We believe that this
body, which has a director who clearly enjoys the trust of
the president, can play a significant role. In January, the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs agreed to USAID's proposal for

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cooperation with the Institute. Areas for cooperation
include information exchange, the provision of legal and
technical expertise, and support for increased access to
information. The Institute has fully embraced USAID as a
valued partner. Together with the Institute, USAID's
partner, the International Center for Not-for-Profit Law, has
laid out an ambitious plan for cooperation over the next
year. Other USAID partners have made or are preparing to
make other proposals based on feedback from the Institute.


6. (SBU) Although the president is making progress in
overhauling Turkmenistan's laws, human rights practices
continue to lag behind the president's intentions. RFE/RL
reporters continue to experience considerable harassment from
security forces, including efforts to disrupt the wedding of
one reporter's son. Small evangelical Christian religious
groups continue to experience problems with registration, and
some unregistered groups have experienced harassment. We
have heard reports that some individuals are being barred
from travel abroad, although the government has been willing
to reverse travel bans in a limited number of cases where
there is a clear U.S. interest. While Berdimuhamedov in 2007
released Turkmenistan's former Grand Mufti, imprisoned since
2005 under charges of complicity in the 2002 attack, only a
handful of other individuals, who were also imprisoned for
alleged involvement in the attack have been released.
Saparmurad Seidov, a named conspirator in the attack, who was
released in October, was the most recent person freed.

MEDIA


7. (SBU) While most of Turkmenistan's media remains
state-controlled, President Berdimuhamedov has emphasized the
need for reform, calling for more creativity and more
international and political news to better inform readers and
viewers. Simultaneously, however, he has noted that a
principal role of the media is to stimulate patriotism and
support for reform efforts, and there is no official
discussion of allowing independent media to develop. Within
this context, state media have shown gradually increasing
openness, but still much uncertainty and a lack of capacity
in attempting to fulfill the president's demands. In
particular, the Ministry of Culture and Broadcasting has
asked specifically for U.S. experts and assistance to further
develop Turkmenistan's news media. This has led to
unprecedented Embassy access to and contact with state media,
but also so far to only minimal improvements in
newsgathering, editing and production techniques. Both
broadcast and print media have started to cover a wider range
of topics, but would not even think of challenging or
criticizing government policies. These limits are a result
of strict self-censorship -- no one wants to be the first to
try an "unapproved" innovation. We believe there remains
potential for coaxing Turkmenistan's media further along the
road to providing more and better information. A next step
in this regard could be continued and expanded partnerships
with U.S. and other foreign media outlets.

EDUCATION


8. (SBU) President Berdimuhamedov and his officials
repeatedly emphasize that reforming the education sector has
been one of their top priorities, and he has said to U.S.
visitors the hardest task is to change the mentality of a
people. Standard schooling has returned to the ten-year
model of the Soviet era from Niyazov's nine-year standard.
University education has returned to the previous standard of
five years, instead of Niyazov's model of two years of study
and two years of work. Graduate study programs resumed in
September following a many-year hiatus, but there appears to
be a real lack of expertise and direction to make these
successful. Many new university buildings have been built or
are under construction. The country is opening "state of the
art" grade schools and secondary schools, but seems to

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neglect teacher training and other programmatic aspects.
Recently, the president announced that any new school
construction project will only be considered completed when
the building has full Internet access.


9. (SBU) And yet, to date, the president's (and
government's) focus has been more on improving the shell than
on reforming the core of the educational system. While there
has been little emphasis placed up to now on retraining
teachers or on modernizing the curricula, there have been
some clear signs, during recent visits of delegations from
both Texas A&M and Chadron State College (Nebraska),that the
government recognizes the links between human capacity and
curricula and may be considering curricula changes for
institutions of higher education. In particular, the
Minister of Education is eager to re-start a Texas A&M
partnership that would reform Turkmenistan's sole business
education program to American standards over the next 3-4
years (this project is being fine-tuned for review by the
Government of Turkmenistan). At lower levels, however, the
system -- including some hard-core hold-outs like the
infamous Nury Bayramov, the Ministry of Education's
International Relations head -- continues to constrain
individual initiative and block suggestions for improvements
and reforms from reaching the Minister. In particular, many
returned exchange participants are prevented or discouraged
from returning to their places of work or study. Despite
these problems, there have been some glimmers of interest in
a Bolashak-like program in which the government would provide
scholarships to Turkmen students to attend U.S. universities.


10. (SBU) Action on U.S.-sponsored educational programs is
focused in USAID and the Embassy's Public Diplomacy section.
More than 100 Turkmenistan citizens are participating in 2008
in the Embassy's FLEX (high-school),UGRAD (college-level),
Turkmenistan AUCA Scholarship program (TASP),Teachers
Excellence and Achievement (TEA),Muskie, Fulbright and
Humphrey exchange programs. Through its Quality Learning
Program, USAID is seeking to support efforts to improve
teaching and student assessment methodologies, increase
teachers' participation in curriculum and education policy
development, and promote development of transparent and
efficient school finance and management systems. In July,
USAID proposed to assist Turkmenistan to improve pre-service
and in-service teachers, skills and content for secondary
math, science and advanced literacy courses, and currently
awaits the ministry,s feedback.

FOREIGN POLICY


11. (SBU) Like Niyazov, Berdimuhamedov has emphasized
"neutrality" as the hallmark of the country's foreign policy.
Nevertheless, Berdimuhamedov has put an unprecedented
emphasis on foreign affairs to repair Turkmenistan's
international and regional relations and to become a
respected player on the international stage. Under the
president's leadership, Turkmenistan has reached out to
participate actively in regional organizations. He has met
with all the leaders in the region, as well as with those of
other countries of importance to Turkmenistan. China has a
strong and growing commercial presence in Turkmenistan, and
continues to court the president through a series of
high-level commercial and political visits, including a July
2007 Berdimuhamedov trip to Beijing focused on natural gas
and pipeline deals, followed by two visits by President Hu
Jintao to Ashgabat. Presidents Berdimuhamedov and Gul
(Turkey) have exchanged visits, but bilateral relations
continue to be colored more by the image of Turkey's
lucrative trade and construction contracts that are eating up
large amounts of money from the national budget.
Berdimuhamedov has held positive meetings with high-level
leaders of international organizations (including both the UN
and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe)
and IFIs that have led to productive, cooperative

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relationships. UN Special Rapporteur on Religion Asma
Jahangir met with Berdimuhamedov in early September, and
OSCE's High Commissioner on National Minorities Knut
Vollebaek visited in April.


12. (SBU) Berdimuhamedov has held positive meetings with
high-level U.S. officials and is well-disposed toward the
United States. He made his first trip to the United States
as president to participate in the UNGA session in September
2007, where he also met with Secretary of State Rice. In
November 2007, Secretary of Energy Bodman met with
Berdimuhamedov in Ashgabat, and Berdimuhamedov's meeting with
President Bush during the April Bucharest NATO summit
received extensive and very positive media coverage in
Turkmenistan. Berdimuhamedov made his first visit to EU and
NATO headquarters in Brussels in November 2007.

REGIONAL POLICY


13. (SBU) Accompanying the president's focus on reaching out
to Turkmenistan's near and more distant neighbors has been an
increased effort to participate in and cooperate with
regional fora. During President Berdimuhamedov's tenure,
Turkmenistan has become an increasingly active player in a
number of regional fora, including the (counter-narcotics)
Central Asian Regional Information and Coordination Center,
the Central Asian Trade Investment Framework Agreement
mechanism (TIFA),and the European Union's Central Asian
Troika process (Turkmenistan hosted the troika meeting and
wanted to host TIFA). Cognizant of its neutral status, it
has bolstered its previous participation in meetings of the
Commonwealth of Independent States and in its participation
-- as an observer -- in the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization, as well as in NATO with the status of a
Partnership-for-Peace country. Turkmenistan is also
participating in regional reconstruction efforts in
Afghanistan and sponsoring a number of Afghan students at its
universities and pedagogical institutes. In early April, the
Turkmen government agreed to bolster by 2010 the electricity
it is already selling to Afghanistan by an additional 300
Megawatts. The president also agreed to extend the current
price at which Turkmenistan is selling electricity to
Afghanistan -- 2 cents per kilowatt hour -- to 2010.

ECONOMY AND FINANCE


14. (SBU) President Berdimuhamedov has stated repeatedly, in
many fora, that he wants to develop an international-standard
market economy and to promote foreign investment. To those
ends, he has placed a new priority over the past eight months
on promoting economic and financial reform. Turkmenistan has
announced that it will re-denominate its currency in 2009,
lopping off three zeros, and has already unified the
country's dual exchange rates. The president has stated that
some state enterprises will be privatized -- though not in
"strategic" sectors like oil and gas, electricity, textiles,
construction, transportation, and communications. He has
signed a new foreign investment law, which, among other
things, guarantees resident foreign businessmen and their
families one-year, multi-entry visas, and approved changes to
the tax code. The president divided the overworked Ministry
of Economy and Finance into two bodies -- a Ministry of
Economy and Development, and a Ministry of Finance, and he
has created a Supreme Auditing Chamber with the goal of
providing transparency in the budget process. In a notable
development, the president also announced that he will
abolish the opaque extrabudgetary funds that were prone under
his predecessor to misuse and corruption. Finally, the state
has slowly begun to raise the price of electricity and price
of vehicle fuel. These measures could be part of an early
effort to phase out the state's extensive and tremendously
expensive subsidies system.


15. (SBU) Even though the president has reshaped his

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bureaucracy, put in place the structures that theoretically
should help promote a market economy, and opened Turkmenistan
to cooperation with IFIs, the lack of basic understanding and
bureaucratic capacity remains an enormous impediment to
change. New reforms are being rolled out with inadequate
preparation, understanding of their consequences and
explanation -- and are leading to increased public
dissatisfaction. USAID is working through its contractor,
BearingPoint, to increase human capacity in several new
government institutions, to prepare the strategy to support
private sector development, and to support the introduction
of International Financial Reporting Standards in
Turkmenistan.

ENERGY


16. (SBU) Turkmenistan has world-class natural gas reserves,
but Russia's near monopoly of its energy exports has left
Turkmenistan receiving much less than the world price and
overly beholden to Russia, although Gazprom has agreed to pay
the "world price" starting in 2009. (NOTE: Despite this
promise, Gazprom and Turkmenistan have yet to agree on
precisely what this means and are still negotiating natural
gas prices for 2009. END NOTE.) Pipeline diversification,
including both a pipeline to China scheduled for completion
in late 2009 and the possibility of resurrecting plans for
Trans-Caspian and Trans-Afghanistan pipelines that would
avoid the Russian routes, and construction of high-voltage
electricity lines to transport excess energy to
Turkmenistan's neighbors, including Afghanistan, would not
only enhance Turkmenistan's economic and political
sovereignty, but also help fuel new levels of prosperity
throughout the region. Berdimuhamedov has told U.S.
interlocutors he recognizes the need for more options and has
taken the first steps to this end, but he also took the steps
needed to increase the volume of gas exports to Russia,
signing an agreement (with Russia and Kazakhstan) in Moscow
in December 2007 to enlarge and rebuild a non-functioning
Soviet-era Caspian littoral pipeline. While little progress
has been publicized on this project, government officials and
some foreign oil company officials maintain that plans are on
track, with construction to begin in 2009. Berdimuhamedov
will require encouragement and assistance from the
international community if he is to maintain a course of
diversification in the face of ongoing Russian efforts to
keep Turkmenistan from weaning itself away from Russia.


17. (SBU) Although Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan have made
excellent progress over the past year in resolving many of
the issues that had troubled their relationship, officials
have been broadcasting signals in recent months that -- from
Turkmenistan,s perspective -- the relationship is still not
trouble-free. Fundamentally, Turkmen leaders seem to believe
that they have made most of the efforts at rapprochement over
the last year, and are looking for signs that the Azeris are
taking them seriously. It is more important than ever for
the United States to continue its constructive role, urging
the two sides to work together.


18. (SBU) One of the biggest challenges that Turkmenistan's
hydrocarbon sector will have to face, if it is to succeed in
pipeline diversification, is the need for increased
natural-gas production. Turkmenistan produced a reported
72.3 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2007, a figure that barely
meets its existing domestic needs and export commitments.
The president directed that production should increase to
81.5 bcm in 2008. Even larger increases will be needed as/if
new pipelines come online. While Turkmenistan has welcomed
foreign companies to work its offshore (primarily oil)
Caspian blocks, it has up to now largely rejected allowing
foreign energy companies to work its onshore gas fields,
maintaining that it can handle the drilling itself. But
onshore natural gas production offers some tough challenges,
including ultra-deep, high-pressure, high-sulphur, sub-salt

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drilling, which requires special skills and technologies and
massive investment. One Western analyst suggested that costs
could run as high as $100 billion over the next five years.
No one outside of the Turkmen government believes
Turkmenistan has either the skills or the financial resources
needed. U.S. policy has been to promote onshore production
by major Western oil companies. President Berdimuhamedov
told visiting U.S. officials in September that foreign
companies would not be permitted to work onshore. Given the
technological challenges in extracting onshore gas, the
policy could change in the future.

COUNTER-NARCOTICS COOPERATION


19. (SBU) Berdimuhamedov's efforts to distance himself
gradually from Niyazov's "Golden Age," we-have-no-problems
rhetoric, have led him to acknowledge publicly that
Turkmenistan has serious problems with narcotics trafficking
and addiction, primarily opiates from Afghanistan. In
January 2008, he established and funded the new State
Counter-Narcotics Service with DEA-like responsibilities for
both interdiction and demand-reduction efforts.
Berdimuhamedov put in charge an activist official, Murat
Islamov, that the international donor community both respects
and trusts. While Islamov already has a headquarters
building, he is literally building his new service from the
ground up. During a meeting with Embassy officers in April,
he welcomed whatever training and equipment the United States
can provide. With a promised infusion of $10 million in
CENTCOM counter-narcotics funds in FY 09 and the possibility
of an increased amount in FY 10, the Embassy country team is
now working with SCNS to focus efforts to most effectively
provide assistance to Turkmen counter-narcotics efforts.
These efforts have led to the recent arrival of a TDY DEA
special agent to pave the way for a permanent DEA presence.

SECURITY


20. (SBU) The U.S. security relationship with Turkmenistan
continues to unfold, with slow but consistent cooperation.
Although basing is not an option, Turkmenistan remains an
important conduit for the U.S. military to Afghanistan.
Maintaining blanket overflight permission and the military
refueling operation at Ashgabat Airport remains a key U.S.
goal. CENTCOM and Turkmenistan's military maintain an active
military-to-military cooperation plan and a productive
counter-narcotics program which has funded training and
completion of two border-crossing stations on the Iranian and
Afghan borders. A third border-crossing station is nearing
completion at Farap on the Uzbekistan border (under the
supervision of the Nevada National Guard operating through
the State Partnership Program),with two more to follow
funded through CENTCOM's military cooperation program. With
the assistance of the Embassy's EXBS program, the Embassy
works to strengthen Turkmenistan's border security and to
increase its ability to interdict smuggling of weapons of
mass destruction.


21. (SBU) General of the Army Agageldi Mammetgeldiyev has
remained the Minister of Defense since 2003. Mammetgeldiyev
is a trained medical doctor and previously was the Chief of
the State Border Service (SBS). His primary deputy and
acting Chief of the General Staff, General-Major Muhammetguly
Atabayev, is also a medical doctor. Mammetgeldiyev and
Atabayev are the only general officers in the Ministry of
Defense. The Ministry of Defense (MOD) and Ministry of
Internal Affairs (MVD) are in the slow process of
transferring emergency response-related responsibilities to a
new organization, the State Service for Emergency Situations.
The military completed its one "major" annual
battalion-level exercise on May 5th, which featured a hostage
rescue scenario and defense against an attacking enemy force.
Military reforms are ongoing, but the extent, direction, and
opportunities for international involvement -- including U.S.

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support -- remain ill-defined and limited. Mammetgeldiyev
visited NAVCENT Headquarters in Bahrain in January 2008 and
participated in the CENTCOM Commander-hosted CHOD Conference
in Tampa -- his first visit to the United States ) in
February 2008. He accepted a Secretary of Defense offer to
visit the United States in September 2008, but this was
postponed at the President Berdimuhamedov,s request.
General-Major Alovov, who accompanied Mammetgeldiyev to
Bahrain, remains the SBS Chief.


22. (SBU) Current U.S. security assistance programs focus on
improving the communications capability of the Turkmenistan
armed forces in the areas of emergency response and border
security, English language ability, and in building a future
leadership with western principles. The EXBS program has
provided support for operational upkeep of the former USCG
Cutter Point Jackson, a U.S. Excess Defense Article donation
to the State Border Service in 2001, which is one of the few
operational vessels in the Turkmenistan maritime security
forces. Turkmenistan has received FMF/IMET since 1997 and in
FY08 received $0/$300K.
CURRAN