TURKMENISTAN: OBSTACLES APLENTY FOR TAPI PIPELINE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 001443 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EEB E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2018 TAGS: EPET PREL ADB ZK XD TX SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN: OBSTACLES APLENTY FOR TAPI PIPELINE PROJECT Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Sylvia Reed Curran for reasons 1. 4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Progress on the Asian Development Bank's ("ADB") proposed gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to India is beset by challenges as the proposed project enters its sixth year. Working group meetings to finalize key agreements have been repeatedly postponed. From the Turkmen side, authorization to sign agreements has been slow in coming. Pricing will be negotiated on a bilateral basis and significant differences remain. It is unclear whether the next round of meetings planned for December will take place due to an inability to finalize key agreements. Besides financial and security challenges beyond Turkmenistan's border, the project's prospects are tied to Turkmenistan's ability to fill the pipeline with gas. A ready supply in need of a market could go far in eliminating at least the bureaucratic delays that beleaguer the project. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) ADB's Ashgabat-based liaison officer Ayna Kekilova recently provided an update on the status of the Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India (TAPI) natural gas pipeline project. The initial project proposal was prepared in 2002 and the project feasibility study was completed in 2004. Since that time, ten ministerial and higher-level steering committee meetings have taken place, most recently in Islamabad in April 2008. TECHNICAL WORKING GROUP MEETINGS DELAYED ¶3. (C) In addition, a TAPI pipeline technical working group was established. It has met three times, twice in Ashgabat in April 2007 and September 2008. It also met in Islamabad in April immediately before the steering committee meeting. Kekilova explained that the first working group meeting took one year to arrange. When the Turkmen government learned that ADB did not plan to attend the meeting, it threatened to cancel the event, insisting that ADB be present and facilitate the meeting. The GOTX has taken the position that it will not discuss the TAPI project multilaterally without an ADB presence. A fourth working group meeting was planned for October in New Delhi, but it was delayed due to a lack of progress on outstanding issues. ADB would like the meeting to take place in November in order to precede the next steering committee meeting, at which the participants are supposed to sign off on the group's work. ¶4. (C) Current sticking points for further progress are: a) the signing of the new Heads of Agreement, which has been amended to reflect India's participation in the project; and b) conclusion of a gas sales and purchase agreement. The Heads of Agreement designates the responsibilities of the project partners. It was planned that the Heads of Agreement would be signed during the September working group meeting. Turkmen officials at the working group had not received authorization to sign, but expected it shortly and urged the others to sign. Afghanistan and Pakistan officials did sign, but India decided to wait until the Turkmen would also sign. Meanwhile, the Turkmen have still not signed. Kekilova explained that authorization is held up at the Cabinet of Ministers level. She added that she has difficulty explaining to ADB headquarters that no GOTX minister is authorized to make the decision, but instead that it has to go to "the very top level." Kekilova said the September working group meeting was also delayed one month because the necessary paperwork had to go to President Berdimuhamedov. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PRICING ¶5. (C) Concerning the gas sales and purchase agreement, Kekilova explained that the Turkmen government wants this agreement to be a general document, after which it will negotiate firm prices bilaterally with each partner. Initially, ADB had proposed a lengthy, detailed sales ASHGABAT 00001443 002 OF 002 agreement that was intended to satisfy potential investors. The Turkmen side responded that the agreement could be a maximum of 30-40 pages and would serve as the basis for the bilateral sales contracts. The GOTX provided a template based on its agreements with Russia and China. According to Kekilova, the Turkmen Ministry of Oil and Gas has conducted bilateral negotiations with all three countries concerning pricing and proposed a formula similar to what it uQ with Russia. Agreement has been reached with Afghanistan, and is becoming closer with Pakistan as the two sides agree on some aspects. India, however, has proposed a completely different pricing structure that takes into account coal and LNG prices. Kekilova expressed doubt over whether an agreement could be reached with India because of their different approaches to a pricing structure. ¶6. (C) The cost of the project was originally estimated in the range of USD 2 - 2.5 billion in the 2004 feasibility study. Once all necessary agreements are reached between the cooperating countries, theQign and construction phase would take four years. The project is supposed to be connectedQh the Dauletabad gas field in Turkmenistan. The Turkmen government has not provided an audit of reserves to all parties that shows proven reserves are sufficient for the agreement. However, it has expressed a willingness to use all its reserves, not just the Dauletabad field. Kekilova mentioned that a risk assessment was included as part of the feasibility study, but given current conditions in Afghanistan and Pakistan, a new risk assessment will need to be done. She also referred to the Turkmen government's position that they will sell their gas at their border and will construct the pipeline within their territory, but that they are not concerned about issues beyond their border. PARTIES COMMITTED DESPITE DIFFICULTIES ¶7. (C) Kekilova said ADB has spent about USD four million on the project to date, including more than USD one million for the feasibility study, and wants to see it built. She also described the Turkmen position that they will build the pipeline up to their border with Afghanistan, sell the gas at the border, and don't care about what happens beyond the border. When ADB has asked officials at TurkmenGas and the Ministry of Oil and Gas whether they want the TAPI pipeline, they say they are ready to sign. However, Kekilova indicated the obstacle is the lack of a decision from President Berdimuhamedov and conveyed through Deputy Chairman for Oil and Gas Tagiyev. ¶8. (C) COMMENT: Obstacles clearly abound on the path ahead for the TAPI pipeline, not the least of which is the sluggishness of the Turkmen government's bureaucracy. As long as Turkmenistan's gas production remains inadequate to supply its domestic needs plus current commitments to Russia, China and Iran, it's not clear that the Turkmen have much incentive to move ahead quickly. In addition, security and financing issues wholly beyond Turkmenistan's border will need to be addressed. Since ADB's commitment remains firm, it's likely that the partners will continue to negotiate in fits and starts as they have to date, and the project will remain "proposed." That said, the development of excess gas production capacityQt could fill the pipeline would be a significant motivator for the Turkmen government to conclude agreements with its TAPI pipeline partners. END COMMENT. CURRAN