TURKMENISTAN: RUSSIAN MEDIA'S HEAVY INFLUENCE ON LOCAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 001119

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS


STATE FOR SCA/CEN, SCA/PPD, IIP

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV SCUL KPAO TX
SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN: RUSSIAN MEDIA'S HEAVY INFLUENCE ON LOCAL
VIEWS ON GEORGIA CONFLICT

REFTEL: ASHGABAT 1076


1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet.


2. (SBU) SUMMARY: In an informal, unscientific survey of local
citizens, post found general public support (approx. 75%) for
Russia's point of view in the conflict with Georgia. There is a
distinction between those who watch Russian satellite TV and those
who seek out other sources for news, with those exclusively watching
Russian TV for news being nearly universal in their agreement with
Russian views. Due to the limited information in Turkmen
state-controlled media and the general information vacuum and
linguistic obstacles to other news or views, there is little to
counter Russian media interpretations of the conflict in Georgia.
END SUMMARY.

AN INFORMATION VACUUM FILLED BY RUSSIAN MEDIA


3. (SBU) Turkmenistan's state controlled-media rarely report on
international events. In those rare cases when it does, the
information provided is minimal and carefully omits analysis or
possible hints of controversy. There is no functioning independent
media in the country and access to opposition media abroad is
limited. As a result, the vast majority of Turkmen obtain their
news, especially international news, from Russian satellite
television.

LACK OF PUBLIC OPINION DATA


4. (SBU) No public opinion polling exists in Turkmenistan, which
despite reform remains officially neutral. Public demonstrations
are taboo. However, locals speak openly with friends and family
about their political outlook. Therefore, post can only rely on an
informal, unscientific sampling in order to gauge the public opinion
on issues - in this case the war in Georgia.

INFORMAL SURVEY RESULTS


5. (SBU) Family and friends of Public Affairs Section FSNs
overwhelmingly get their news from Russian satellite channels. All
- 100% - report that they watch Russian satellite TV for news. Only
an estimated 15% seek out other news outlets to supplement what they
have seen on Russian TV. Small percentages watch English language
broadcasts such as BBC or CNN, Turkish satellite channels, or get
news from the Internet (NOTE: Internet penetration in Turkmenistan,
although allegedly growing, still appears to be around 1%. For most
users the quality of connection is low. END NOTE.)

PRO-RUSSIAN VIEWS FROM RUSSIAN TV NEARLY GUARANTEED


6. (SBU) There appears to be a strong correlation of a pro-Russian
opinion and watching Russian satellite TV. As a very rough
estimate, 75% of the friends and family of U.S. Embassy Public
Affairs FSNs support the Russian viewpoint on the conflict in
Georgia. Presumably, this would be higher among the general
population which has no association with the U.S. government. All
of those in agreement with Russian policy get their news exclusively
or primarily from Russian TV. It appears that a small portion,
perhaps 5-10% of those who watch only Russian TV, doubt its accuracy
or do not support Russian views.

MIXED VIEWS AMONG THE OTHERS - FROM MIXED SOURCES


7. (SBU) The remaining 25% who do not agree with Russia on the
Georgia conflict, do not specifically support U.S. views or oppose
Russia's position. About 10-15% of those surveyed agree with U.S.
policy or clearly view Russia's actions as inappropriate.
Meanwhile, about 10-15% don't care or are undecided, are often
suspicious of both sides in the conflict and/or doubt much
information from either Russian or non-Russian media sources. This
estimated quarter of the informal survey population watches Russian
TV, in addition to western media outlets or perhaps obtain news
online. For most of these viewers, foreign language skills beyond

ASHGABAT 00001119 002 OF 002


Russian or Turkmen are critical for their ability to access
alternative viewpoints.

SAAKASHVILI HAS A BAD RAP IN TURKMENISTAN


8. (SBU) Even among those who disagree with Russian actions in
Georgia, many blame Georgian President Saakashvili or at the least
have a negative opinion of him. Most people who support Russia
actions, believed it likely that genocide or some kind of atrocity
had been committed by Georgian forces. Only about half of those
with pro-Russian views raised a negative opinion of U.S. support for
Georgia, but still many saw the U.S. position reflecting a double
standard, i.e. supporting Kosovo's independence, but not South
Ossetia or Abkhazia's independence. A small minority, perhaps 5%
(especially those who watch Western news media) expressed the view
that Russia was attempting to dominate former Soviet countries.


9. (SBU) COMMENT: In a near information vacuum, the Turkmen public
has few choices for international news. Combined with
Turkmenistan's general isolation and linguistic obstacles to viewing
non-Russian media, there is little that can counter Russian
satellite TV's reporting and analysis of the crisis in Georgia. As
a result, it appears that high numbers of Turkmen, despite their
country's official neutrality, would side with Russia in the
conflict. Although this informal survey was far from scientific, it
was conducted among friends and family of well-educated Embassy
FSNs. Presumably, the pro-Russian attitudes would be higher among
the population as a whole, which has no personal ties to the U.S.
Embassy. END COMMENT.

CURRAN