TURKMENISTAN: EARTHQUAKE RUMOR SHOWS DANGER OF

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 001094

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, PPD, DRL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SCUL SOCI TX
SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN: EARTHQUAKE RUMOR SHOWS DANGER OF
LIMITING ACCESS TO INFORMATION


1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet.


2. (SBU) SUMMARY: The calm of the dead of night in Ashgabat
was disturbed by residents flocking out to the streets and
driving off to their country dachas in response to a rumor
that an earthquake was imminent. This rumor turned out to
have absolutely no basis in fact, and it is difficult to
understand how it started. Nevertheless, it perfectly
illustrates the problems caused when there is limited access
to information and no free press. In the absence of access
to credible sources for local information, Turkmen rely on
friends, neighbors, Russian TV, and rumint -- none of which
is 100% reliable. END SUMMARY.

EARTHQUAKE'S A COMING


3. (SBU) The evening of August 19-20, a rumor spread like
wildfire that an earthquake was imminent, setting off a
city-wide panic in Ashgabat. Around 1:00am August 19, RSO
received a call from the local guard force commander, who
said that he had heard from a friend, who claimed someone had
told him, that Turkmen television had broadcast news that
there would be an earthquake within an hour. The local guard
force commander added that when he looked outside, the street
was filled with people and their belongings. The mobile
patrol also called RSO to say that people were filing out of
their buildings in various sections of the city. RSO
initiated the cascade to alert American employees, and
through CONS, local AmCits.


4. (SBU) Although the response by locals varied by
neighborhood, panic often ensued. One Emboff left the elite
apartment building where he lived to find his Turkmen
neighbors fleeing in cars, saying that "Moscow" (Russian TV)
had said an earthquake was coming. Some local employees
informed their employers that they were going to their dachas
out of town. Many Turkmen filed out into the streets based
on what they had heard from a friend, neighbor or relative.
One embassy night guard said that his family had called him
to warn about the earthquake. Another FSN employee said that
his sister-in-law, who works nights in a hospital, called his
family. The "source" was variously, Turkmen TV, Russian TV
or the Internet. Several people told us that the news had
said there had been an earthquake in China or Iran, which was
the harbinger of one in Turkmenistan. (NOTE: The only
sizable seismic activity near Turkmenistan took place on the
China-Myanmmar border at 2:35am Turkmenistan time -- long
after the rumor started. One FSN first heard about an
impending earthquake at 10:00pm on August 19. END NOTE.)
One story told of soldiers knocking on doors, telling people
to leave. One rumor said that an Ashgabat-to-Turkmenabat
train had been stopped by officials because of the impending
earthquake, and passengers were made to disembark. Following
the threads back, it turned out that a passenger told her
daughter that the train was delayed two hours because it had
stopped in the night.


5. (SBU) While most people told of hearing about the
earthquake from someone who heard of someone who supposedly
heard it on TV, there was one account of possibly official
involvement in contacting people about the impending
earthquake. The neighbor of one FSN told her that she had
been awakened by the loudspeaker blaring from a car with
official government plates. The loudspeaker announced that
people should get out of their homes at once.

NEVERMIND


6. (SBU) Although one group of residents insisted that the
earthquake warning was on until 5:00am, by 2:30-3:00am, the
police were taking steps to turn the rumor off. Police cars
went through several neighborhoods with loudspeakers
announcing that everything was fine and people should go
home. The police told Embassy TDYers, who were standing

ASHGABAT 00001094 002 OF 002


outside of their hotel, that they should go back in. One
group of residents supposedly called the presidential
apparat, who confirmed there was no impending earthquake.
The mother of one FSN called a hospital, and hospital staff
informed her that the rumor was not true.


7. (SBU) COMMENT: The speed and intensity of this rumor
highlights the power of rumors in a country where there is
restricted access to information and no freedom of the press.
As there are no credible local sources of information,
people rely heavily on "Moscow" or rumint. And like many
unsubstantiated rumors, this one took on a life of its own
that was not hampered by the contraindicators. Yes,
Turkmenistan is in a seismic zone, has had devastating
earthquakes in the past, and is due for one in the future.
Nevertheless, probably no place on earth has the ability to
predict an earthquake within an hour or even a day.
Furthermore, animals, which are often the first to react when
there is an impending natural disaster, were calm, cool, and
collected. If the government would like to avoid the
problems and disruption caused by people reacting to
wild-eyed rumors, it would be wise to stand up the proposed
agency dealing with emergency situations and promote
increased access to information. END COMMENT.
CURRAN