Comoran President Sambi Popular and Assertive

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000821 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/FO AND AF/E E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ECON CN SUBJECT: Comoran President Sambi Popular and Assertive ¶1. SUMMARY: With life again relatively normal in the Comoros, President Sambi is riding a renewed tide of popularity; fuel and power supplies are adequate and the general mood is hopeful. The President remains committed to reconciliation and democracy, but his priority is economic development. Having all but abandoned hope of any "inter-Comorian Dialogue," he is moving ahead towards a constitutional referendum in May 2009, and using other legal means at his disposal, to reinforce institutions and obtain adequate authorities to accomplish his objectives. Suspicions remain, however, that he may use the referendum to extend his term beyond ¶2010. END SUMMARY. ¶2. An upbeat President Sambi received the Ambassador in his Anjouan office for over an hour on December 7, excitedly taking about his plans to build schools and basketball courts. The day after thousands of Anjouanese turned out to see the President for an International AIDS Day celebration on Anjouan (which the Ambassador and Comoros Officer also attended),he appeared calm (as usual) but more confident and assertive. The President's mood reflected his rebounding popularity among Comorans, evidenced by positive reaction to his public appearances, approval of his plans (including the referendum),success in reinstating fuel supplies and repairing roads in Moroni -- and increasing popular impatience with the blocking tactics of the opposition. In addition to building a few schools, the President talked excitedly about the investments of Kuwait-based Comoro Gulf Holdings, including a new plan for small ports to inter-connect the three islands of Comoros with ferries. President Sambi said daily travel and exchanges between Comorans of the three islands is vital to creating a true culture of unity. ¶3. The Ambassador congratulated Sambi on progress in improving Comoros' international image but emphasized the importance of first impressions as the new American administration takes office. "I have been clear," the President said, "the rotation will take place," (Note: Under the Comoran constitution, the Presidency rotates from island to island every four years; after Grande Comore (Azali) and Anjouan (Sambi),it will be Moheli's turn in 2010. END Note). President Sambi asserted that his constitutional referendum, which he said he plans to hold in May 2009 at the same time as parliamentary elections for the Union, Anjouan, and Moheli, will not change the rotating presidency. He said he is inclined to extend the President's term and to make it renewable - "but not applicable to my tenure." He reiterated his points about the current constitution being "unworkable:" four presidents, four constitutions, four parliaments, 38 ministers (under the IMF deal these are already being reduced to 26),and expensive elections every year. He complained the "parliament blocks everything," adding that 50 GOC bills sat in the National Assembly unvoted. President Sambi glossed over the recent drama at the National Assembly over the "economic citizenship law," averring the GOC followed procedure and had a clear majority (18 of 33) in the parliament on this bill. ¶4. Among provisions to "improve" the constitution, President Sambi said he will grant the National Assembly the authority to "sanction" Ministers, adding a legislative check on the executive. The Ambassador commended the President for this kind of move to reinforce democratic institutions and encouraged more of the same. The President declared he was committed to "democratic principles," adding that the censure capability will give Ministers an incentive to cooperate with - and show respect toward -- parliament. In addition to rationalizing the electoral calendar by aligning various mandates to co-terminate, Sambi's referendum will change island "presidents" to "governors," while reducing the size of their governments and their authority. While island officials cry foul for an "attack on island autonomy," Sambi said he believes the Comoran people support him and believe the constitution must be revised to allow the Union to accomplish its goals. Despite political disputes, President Sambi proudly noted that the National Assembly had passed unanimously on December 6 the "2008 Amended Budget" to stay on track for IMF Emergency Post Conflict Assistance (SEPTEL). ¶5. Noting USG focus on national reconciliation, the Ambassador asked about the inter-Comoran dialogue. The President replied that his main opponents - the presidents of Grande Comore, Moheli, and the National Assembly - all refuse to talk. Sambi said he had met with "notables" (elder leaders) from all three islands and they support him. He suggested that further dialogue with notables from all three islands would provide a productive forum for inter-island dialogue in the lead-up to the May referendum. ¶6. COMMENT: If political popularity is a zero-sum game, President Sambi's current high is proportionate to the increasing isolation and desperation of opposition leaders Bounou (National Assembly President, from Moheli) and Abdouwahabi (Grande Comore Island President). For now electricity is on most of the day, gas stations have fuel, the roads in Moroni have been redone, schools are open, salaries six months in arrears are hoped to be paid soon, investors from the Gulf are highly visible, and life is "normal;" Sambi gets ANTANANARI 00000821 002 OF 002 most of the credit. While he repeatedly tells us he will "respect the rotation," he has also stated publicly his willingness to shorten or lengthen his mandate (due to END in May 2010) in order to align elections. His recent steps to consolidate his power, coupled with an expected IMF deal December 15, will give the President leverage to advance his agenda in 2009. ¶7. COMMENT CONTINUED: Despite calls - including from us - to demonstrate leadership to convene the inter-Comoran dialogue, Sambi is convinced that he has tried, but failed in the face of opposition intransigence; indeed, there is a strong case to be made that this is true. During the most recent mission of African Union Special Envoy Madeira, the Union again made entreaties to the opposition. At a December 3 meeting with the diplomatic corps, Abdouwahabi flatly refused to send even technical-level island officials to preparatory talks to "discuss what would be discussed." Abdouwahabi and Bounou's intransigence now is leading to their increasing political isolation, refusing all formats for inter-island talks and giving Sambi an excuse to hold the referendum. Sambi told the Ambassador that he has even invited the Island presidents to attend Union cabinet meetings - "so they can see that I have no secrets" - but they have also refused that invitation. If current trends continue, Sambi looks now to be on course to win his referendum gamble next spring. The main variable - much on everyone's minds - is which provision he will select with respect to the END of his current term. END COMMENT. STROMAYER