ELECTORAL REFORM ON A SLOW ROAD TO NOWHERE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 000772 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/EPS AND AF/E - MBEYZEROV USDOC FOR BECKY ERKUL - DESK OFFICER TREASURY FOR FBOYE PARIS FOR RKANEDA LONDON FOR PLORD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV AORC SOCI MA SUBJECT: ELECTORAL REFORM ON A SLOW ROAD TO NOWHERE ANTANANARI 00000772 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: President Ravalomanana pledged to undertake needed electoral reforms following senate elections in April 2008; however, the GOM has taken no action on these issues, instead leaving the ball in civil society's court. Civil society groups, while in broad agreement on goals, have been unable to agree on the manner in which to approach the government. They complained to Emboff about lack of access to information and limited freedom of expression and association, and requested further funding from the USG. The GOM responded defensively to these complaints and argued that the government would consider a reform bill if one were to be submitted and good arguments were to be made as to why such reforms were necessary. End summary. Background on Electoral Reform -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Madagascar wrapped up a string of elections in April 2008, after which time President Ravalomanana had pledged to undertake reforms of the electoral system, such as implementing a single ballot (rather than one for each candidate) and developing a truly independent electoral commission. To date, the GOM has not moved on these issues, and civil society members have been unable to agree on an approach to press the government for change. The time for implementing these reforms prior to the next election is trickling away, as Madagascar is legally obliged to hold elections for regional governors before October 2009. Both civil society groups mentioned below requested further support from the USG, as an ESF-funded National Democratic Institute (NDI) program ended in early 2008, and the groups have been unable to move their reform agenda forward since that time. CNOE -- Pessimistic about Reform and Civil Liberties -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) On October 8, the Consortium of National Election Observers (CNOE) Secretary General Bruno Rakotoarisoa requested Emboff's assistance in promoting electoral reform in Madagascar. He explained that since the NDI program ended, civil society groups were having difficulty coordinating and pushing an electoral reform agenda with the Ravalomanana administration. He complained that the GOM did not pay attention to civil society groups unless they had international backing. He noted that President Ravalomanana had publicly stated in early 2008 that the GOM was prioritizing economic development rather than electoral reform. He complained that civil society lacked access to GOM officials at the decision-making level, i.e. prime minister, and lacked access to information. CNOE has drafted a bill regarding freedom of information, but is concerned that it will not be able to push the bill forward without the president's backing, as his party controls the parliament. ¶4. (SBU) Mr. Rakotoarisoa also noted that a television program on the role of senators prepared by CNOE during the senatorial elections last April was first censored and then blocked from airing by the GOM. He further mentioned that election coverage filmed by CNOE could not be aired on public TV, but was shown by private stations. In addition to concerns about access to information and freedom of expression, Mr. Rakotoarisoa added that civil society groups were wary of convening meetings of more than a few people for fear of the GOM's reaction. Overall, he lamented, the political and civil rights situation was not improving in Madagascar. Civil Society Platform -- Slightly More Upbeat, but Fragmented -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) President of the Civil Society Platform Lalao Randriamanpionina was slightly more upbeat about the present administration, perhaps because her husband is the minister of public works. She explained to Emboff on October 9 that the Platform represented over 2,000 members from throughout the island. The Platform aims to provide a unified voice for civil society, which she said is often ignored by the government, help the government to understand the role of civil society, and strengthen the technical capacity of its members many of whom are unable to analyze state policies and/or lack access to information regarding such policies. She said that the GOM was beginning to pay attention to them ANTANANARI 00000772 002.2 OF 003 and cited examples of input the Platform had had into policy documents used by and decisions made by the administration. ¶6. (SBU) She explained that a coalition of five entities, including CNOE and the Platform, were working on electoral issues, including educating people about the electoral code and system. They are seeking to gather the views of civil society, create consensus, and present those views to the government. In informal discussions with the prime minister, he had recommended that the coalition should have a clear, coordinated strategy before approaching the GOM, and that it was civil society's responsibility to direct the reform movement. She agreed with Mr. Rakotoarisoa that, since the NDI program ended, it had been hard to move the coalition forward. Although the coalition's goals are fairly clear, it has been unable to reach agreement regarding strategies to approach the GOM. She conjectured that the best way to pressure President Ravalomanana to push electoral reforms was through the South African Development Community (SADC) -- she argued that he would respond to international pressure, if not domestic. The GOM Responds Defensively -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Secretary General of Interior Gervais Rakotonirina explained to Emboff November 14 that the parliament was responsible for legal reform, not the executive, dodging the question of why the Ravalomanana administration had not prioritized electoral reform after pledging to undertake such reforms earlier. He argued that the administration would prioritize consideration of a reform bill if one were to be submitted (following the proper procedures, unlike one submitted by FFKM) and good arguments were to be made concerning why the reforms were necessary. Up until now, he alleged, this had not been done, and the GOM did not see any problem with the existing laws so had not presented a reform bill itself. ¶8. (SBU) He then responded to various critiques of the present system, arguing that it would be difficult to implement an electoral commission that would be responsible for both organizing and monitoring elections, as no one else besides the ministry of interior had the capacity to reach all of the country. He said that although some groups have complained that the administration was not neutral, but favored incumbents, there was no guaranty that a new entity would be impartial. Regarding the use of a multi-ballot system instead of a single-ballot one, he argued that if certain candidates' ballots were missing in the last elections at certain polling stations, it was due to the fact that those candidates had not respected deadlines imposed for ballot printing. He refused to acknowledge the greater susceptibility to manipulation and corruption resulting from a multi-ballot system, but argued that a single ballot would be too difficult for illiterate Malagasy who were mis-informed by political campaigns to understand. ¶9. (SBU) He then explained the GOM's efforts to keep the public and candidates informed of procedures and legal changes through routine press releases and frequent meetings during electoral seasons. He argued that if people claimed lack of access to information, then they were arguing in bad faith. He cited the financial training provided to parliamentarians in early November prior to consideration of the 2009 budget law as an example of the GOM's efforts to inform decision makers, and thanked us for our support (along with other donors) in financing such training. Comment -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Support to CNOE and the Civil Society Platform through ESF or other financing is greatly needed to help move the electoral reform agenda and democratic processes forward in Madagascar, which is in danger of resting on its political laurels or even backsliding without further international attention, encouragement, and support. Encouraging other SADC countries to pressure President Ravalomanana to get the reform ball rolling could also help get this effort back on track. At the same time, the local diplomatic community is acutely aware of the GOM's backsliding and is engaged with, ANTANANARI 00000772 003.2 OF 003 particularly, the Prime Minister in quietly but persistently reminding him of commitments made during the last electoral cycle and donor expectations of reform before the next one. For now, our agreed strategy is to work behind the scenes -- rather than publicly, which could easily backfire here -- to prod the GOM into fulfilling its commitments. However, if the backsliding continues, it will be necessary to go public, an effort that would be greatly reinforced with some funding to help unify civil society here. End comment. MARQUARDT