COMOROS AS VIEWED FROM MADAGASCAR

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000070 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO ADDIS PASS A/S FRAZER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS MA CN SUBJECT: COMOROS AS VIEWED FROM MADAGASCAR REF: ANTANANARIVO 39 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. In separate meetings January 23 with Foreign Minister Marcel Ranjeva, and January 24 with Prime Minister Charles Rabemananjara, the Ambassador sought Malagasy views of the current crisis in the Comoros. Both expressed frustration at the ongoing instability in their neighbor and concern that it could spill over to affect Madagascar's security, especially if it were to produce a flow of Comoran refugees. Neither, however, showed any willingness to participate in efforts to seek a peaceful solution to the crisis in Anjouan. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) Ranjeva placed the current inter-island crisis within the context of separatist tension in the Comoros that has endured for the past ten years. He blamed Comoran Union President Ahmed Abdallah Sambi for having moved too fast to try to "solve" this problem, contrasting it with former President Azali's more deliberate approach. He clearly opposed Sambi's advocacy of a military solution, at one point suggesting that a frontal attack would be likely to fail -- then later suggesting that taking Anjouan was not a difficult problem militarily, but that it remained undesirable because of the civilian casualties that would likely ensue. He noted that Madagascar already has problems with Comoran students overstaying their visas and worried that an armed conflict might generate another flow of Comorans to Madagascar. ¶3. (SBU) Ranjeva expressed the hope that the issue would be discussed at the African Union (AU) Summit in Addis where, he opined, the solution must lie. He agreed that Anjouan rebel warlord Col. Mohamed Bacar had to leave to solve the crisis and wondered, half jokingly, if Bacar might be paid to leave. He noted AU negotiator Francisco Madeira had stated that diplomatic options had run out and that Bacar must depart, that his 300 militiamen could not be allowed to hold the whole population of Anjouan hostage. Ranjeva noted that South African Foreign Minister Zuma seems to have become less involved in seeking a solution to the Comoran problem over the past six months. He tempered his hope of an AU solution by noting that the Nigeria-Cameroon dispute remained the only successful African conflict resolution to date. ¶4. (SBU) Prime Minister Rabemananjara, who spent three years in the Comoros (2001-4) as part of the Francophonie peacekeeping team, had somewhat different views. He recalled the competition between the AU and the Francophonie back then, suggesting the AU mechanism might not be the best for finding a solution. Instead he stressed the importance of French involvement. According to the PM, the question of Comoran unity stretched beyond the current crisis. In his view, the problems of Anjouan and Mayotte are inseparable. In the meantime, Rabemananjara suggested that only the French could force Bacar to go into exile. ¶5. (SBU) The PM also identified poverty as the fundamental problem the Comoros faces. "La crise est total," he said, noting the thorny political problems still paled next to the economic challenges. "Is there a single factory in Comoros?" he asked, and then answered his own question: "All of the money in the Comoros comes from France [as remittances]." Like Ranjeva, he indicated this poverty presented a problem for Madagascar by drawing Comoran immigrants illegally seeking greater opportunities than they find at home. ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT. From our perspective, unlike Ranjeva's, the current crisis should not be seen as a continuation of the separatism of ten years ago. At that time, domination by Grande Comore had engendered a grass roots separatist movement; in this case, it was the power grab by one individual that triggered the crisis. However we do agree that the constitutional "solution" to the separatist problem of ten years ago is not sustainable over the long term. It provides too many inefficient overlapping island/Union competencies and it does not provide sufficient clarity about how to resolve conflicts between these competencies. Once the Bacar problem is resolved, this will remain a thorny issue needing to be addressed. END COMMENT. MARQUARDT