Comoran Dialogue Blocked, Referendum More Likely

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000683 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/FO AND AF/E E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ECON ASEC CN SUBJECT: Comoran Dialogue Blocked, Referendum More Likely REF: ANTAN 620 (AND PREVIOUS) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: President Sambi offered no assurances to the opposition in his Eid message, instead suggesting he will hold a referendum on the constitution. Opposition members declared October 5 that they opposed any revision of the constitution, rejected "dialogue" on Sambi's terms, and demanded Moheli have its turn in the rotating presidency before changing Comoran institutions. END SUMMARY. President Sambi Reassures No One in Eid Message - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) President Sambi addressed Comorans October 1 on the occasion of the Eid celebration marking the end of the month of Ramadan. He announced grand plans to improve Comorans' lives by improving water, electricity, and housing. While offering nothing new or concrete in these promises, he set the stage of the political thrust of his speech. Sambi said the Comoros is ungovernable with four presidents, four governments, and four legislatures; making the case the system was inefficient and expensive. ¶3. (SBU) The President said for the good of the nation he intended to revise the constitution and reform institutions. He insisted that if the political opposition refused to talk (REFTELS),he would hold a referendum to take the issue to the people. In addition to "rationalizing" institutions, President Sambi said he would harmonize the Comoros' electoral cycle, so Union and island executive and legislative mandates ended at the same time. In this context, Sambi said, "some terms must be extended and others shortened so we can hold all elections on the same day." (NOTE: The President did not/not reassure the opposition, particularly in Moheli, with a public promise to step down when his term ends in ¶2010. END NOTE). Sambi also said he wants the power to dissolve the National Assembly "if he deems it is not performing." He repeated his allegation that over 50 bills await a vote at the National Assembly. Opposition Refuses Sambi's Terms - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (SBU) Opposition leaders representing the islands of Moheli and Grande Comore, as well as the National Assembly, publicly rejected Sambi's terms October 5. Wasting no time to reply to the President's Eid message, an apparently unified opposition refused talks with the Union government if constitutional revision was on the agenda. "All talk of the constitution must wait until each island has had its turn in the rotating presidency," they stated. Only after Moheli took its turn, they demanded, could an assessment of the constitution be conducted and changes discussed. ¶5. (SBU) Our opposition contacts are more convinced than ever that President Sambi intends to hold a referendum to extend his term in office, consolidate power, and destroy island "autonomy." National Assembly Deputies reject Sambi's accusation that laws remain un-voted; they counter that in fact Sambi's administration has failed to apply laws that have been passed (the average Comoran cannot tell who is correct). Said Mchamgama, President of the Mayors' Association and a vocal opposition leader, said political parties would unify to defeat a referendum. Diplomatic colleagues note that some Muslim elders have criticized Sambi, raising concerns about the President's suspected Shi'ite agenda in Sunni Comoros. ¶6. COMMENT: At present, the African Union process to create a Technical Preparatory Committee is blocked. AU Special Envoy Madeira's plea for Comorans to meet to "discuss what must be discussed" has been publicly rejected by both sides. The Union insists on talking constitutional revision and the opposition bloc rejects it categorically. Thus it appears more likely President Sambi will call a referendum; he already has a draft revised constitution, but it is unclear who would pay for yet another Comoran vote. He can count on support in his native Anjouan, where his ally is island president. However, political opponents in Grande Comore and Moheli appear committed to mounting a campaign to reject the referendum. END COMMENT. STROMAYER