MADAGASCAR'S PRESIDENT - PASSIONATE FOR AGRICULTURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANTANANARIVO 000540 DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2018 TAGS: PREL EAGR ECON PGOV MA SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR'S PRESIDENT - PASSIONATE FOR AGRICULTURE Classified By: Charge d'Affaires George N. Sibley for Reasons 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Charge accompanied visiting agribusiness speaker Dr. Arthur Siaway in a call on President Marc Ravalomanana (at his request) for 75 minutes August 4. When encouraged to allow local markets of agricultural goods to reflect global prices as a way to stimulate production, Ravalomanana insisted that artificially low prices were essential to prevent urban unrest. He also doubted that conservative, risk-averse Malagasy farmers would change their productive behavior in response to market signals. The President was nonetheless passionate about his agricultural plans in which his vision for the country's progress and his vision for his firms' activities appear intricately intertwined. There is little doubt that in Ravalomanana's mind, what is good for TIKO (his company) is good for the nation. END SUMMARY. RESPONDING TO A PUBLIC CRITIQUE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) Ravalomanana initially sought to meet visiting Tuskegee University Professor Siaway alone, despite the request that this meeting also constitute a farewell call for the Charge. This reluctance arose from a published interview in which the Charge was openly critical of Madagascar's lack of a level playing field for U.S. investment, especially agribusiness investment. The interview described the President's ownership of TIKO as a "clear conflict of interest" and noted that a wise counselor might suggest the President consider divesting himself of it. As a result, Ravalomanana opened the meeting noting that "some diplomats" think his activities with TIKO (and his other companies) are inappropriate. He responded that it is actually his family that runs these businesses -- although in the remainder of the meeting it became evident the President is deeply and personally, even passionately, involved in these activities. He also justified keeping food prices artificially low to cushion the blow on the people, already suffering from sky-high fuel costs. With his relative monopoly in the staple food sector, he can achieve this through his company's pricing scheme rather than by government fiat. (How the company makes a profit under the circumstances was left unanswered, although we guess that his near-monopoly allows him to cross-subsidize the staple goods with higher-end goods.) ¶3. (C) The Charge suggested allowing the market to set prices, and then targeting the poor with a social safety net, as an approach that would encourage producers to increase production to enhance their revenue. He noted that with Madagascar's rich agricultural potential, it should benefit from high food prices as an exporter, rather than suffering as an importer. Ravalomanana rejected these suggestions, noting that almost all urban Malagasy are "poor" and that once a subsidy is instituted it becomes expected by the people and can never be removed. He also rejected the notion that market prices would provide incentive for farmers to increase production. "Big" farmers might do that, he said, but the small farmers are too tradition-bound to change their ways. By contrast, he appeared open to subsidizing agricultural inputs -- fertilizer, seed and irrigation -- although it appeared these would benefit all farmers, not merely poor farmers. RELISHING HIS AGRICULTURAL ROOTS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) Much of remainder of the meeting covered the President's present and future activities in the agricultural sphere. While generally presented as describing ways that Madagascar can improve and diversify its agricultural production, it was clear than in almost all instances it was TIKO that would lead the way. For example, Ravalomanana spoke at length about his improving dairy production in 1994 (before he entered politics) by importing bovine embryos when live animal imports were prohibited. Now, following a visit to a hog farm in Tennessee earlier this year, he plans to import 5,000 live sows to improve pork production. As he described it, TIKO would receive the sows and then -- at some future date -- would distribute piglets to the smaller farmers. ¶5. (C) Ravalomanana also extolled the need for businesses to take risks, and decried the conservative and risk-averse culture of the Malagasy people. He spoke of his own son Tojo, who appears as the heir-apparent of the TIKO empire, as having been unwilling to try new methods and activities until a visit to California arranged by UNICEF Executive Director (and former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture) Ann Veneman. After seeing the U.S. agricultural methodologies, Tojo apparently was far more willing to explore modernizing changes on the TIKO farms. Siaway suggested that working with "model farmers" to demonstrate more productive agricultural techniques might help to encourage other village farmers to emulate them. The President countered that Malagasy culture prefers all to be equal and that the other villagers, rather than seeking to raise their own productivity, would be likely to sabotage their successful neighbor to bring him back down to their level. ¶6. (C) By contrast, the President was enthusiastic about the impact of land ownership as a way to spur productivity. He said most rural agriculturalists do not improve their holdings because they do not own it, or at least cannot prove that they do. He noted with approval that the Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) Compact was addressing this problem successfully, but only in a few regions. Pressing for a follow-on MCA Second Compact, Ravalomanana urged that this effort be expanded nationwide. BIO NOTES: PROUD OF COMING UP FROM HIS BOOTSTRAPS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) As he became more at ease, Ravalomanana began to expound on his own path to business success. He showed Siaway pictures of impoverished children in the Madagascar Action Plan (MAP) brochure, saying that he himself had been "one of them." Ravalomanana was youngest in his family and said he was not allowed to go to school by his father until he had fed the grass to their two cows. When he was older, the World Bank funded his training in dairy work in both Sweden and Denmark, where he reported having lived for four years. He pointed out that Denmark has absolutely no resources except for beets, but that it is a rich country because people use their brains, inventing Leggo games and the like. He said his family opposed his business innovations (such as the bovine embryos) but that he was always ready to take risks and that they had succeeded. He expressed impatience with his European partners and advisors who always urged caution, and appreciation for his American advisors who urge him to go ahead and try new policies and programs to see if they will work. Perhaps reflecting this preference, Ravalomanana's English language skills have improved markedly over the past three years and he is now comfortably a Level 3 speaker. COMMENT: OBLIVIOUS TO CONFLICT OF INTEREST - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (C) Ravalomanana started the meeting somewhat defensive about the Charge's interview -- which has been widely commented in private while publicly ignored. As the meeting continued, however, the President's frank and enthusiastic descriptions of his role in bringing agricultural change to Madagascar through TIKO belied any claim that he has passed control of the operation to his family. Even if he had, the concern about conflict of interest would scarcely diminish. Instead, his clear pride in his agricultural leadership showed what we have long suspected: Ravalomanana truly believes that what is good for TIKO is good for the nation. To an extent, if his innovations improve productivity, he is not wrong. But what he does not seem to understand is that TIKO's preferred status crowds out competitors and dampens the investment climate, thereby doing long-term harm to Madagascar's economy. We tried to convey this message, but doubt that it was received. SIBLEY