MALAGASY MFA VIEWS ON COMORAN IMPASSE

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SUBJECT: MALAGASY MFA VIEWS ON COMORAN IMPASSE


1. (SBU) Malagasy Foreign Affairs Secretary General Mboara
Andriarimanana and Cabinet Director Michel Martin Rajoelina shared
their views on the current Comoros impasse with the Ambassador
January 16. Both were very well "read-in" on the Comoran state of
play, having followed reports from the Malagasy Consul in Moroni and
the media. They were very skeptical about chances for success if
Union troops attempted to take Anjouan. Sharing his estimate that
Colonel Bacar had 800 troops, SG Mboara said if the Union army
attacks Anjouan alone there will be significant casualties and
failure. In response to the Ambassador's comment that Sambi feels
he also fails if he does nothing, Mboara insisted "diplomatic
options must be exhausted."


2. (SBU) While acknowledging Comoros is a close neighbor with
strong ties to the Comoros, our Malagasy colleagues advocated no
policy other than observing the situation. Both expressed genuine
concern, however, hoping the African Union, South Africans, or
others would eventually find a solution. Raojolina speculated that
"the whole thing could explode" just as the AU Summit takes place
later this month. He said that the only African nation with any
capacity to help was South Africa, which could intervene militarily
if it wanted to. However, he noted that "Mbeki is in trouble now,"
and recalled FM Zuma's misstep when an AU Delegation was in Anjouan
to confront Bacar last spring but she instead asked him what his
grievances were. This, in their view, had undermined the AU
demarche and contributed to the present impasse. They seemed to
think that South Africa was now in the process of washing its hands
of a tough problem on which they might feel they have already done
enough.


3. (SBU) In discussing President Sambi's options, SG Mboara noted
the possibility that Iran would be asked for help. He said any role
for Iran would be destabilizing to the region. In particular,
Mboara assessed, if Iran were to "save" Sambi by helping resolve the
Anjouan impasse, it would not bode well for Madagascar's interests.
Equally of concern, if Comoros falls apart over the Anjouan issue,
Iran may step into the resultant void. The SG reiterated the GOM's
general stance on world issues that Madagascar falls in with the
non-aligned and African consensus.


4. (SBU) COMMENT: As an island, Madagascar tends to focus
internally. Our MFA colleagues demonstrated an impressive and
current understanding of the state of play in the Comoros, and even
how events there could affect Madagascar's interests. However, they
stopped well short of espousing any active policy role for
Madagascar. They did, however, express awareness of the current
delicate situation and the need not to worsen the burden on Sambi by
cracking down any further on Comoran students living with "irregular
documents" in Madagascar. END COMMENT.

MARQUARDT