TIM SHARES SENATE WITH TOKEN OPPOSITION LEADERS

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000325 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR MA SUBJECT: TIM SHARES SENATE WITH TOKEN OPPOSITION LEADERS REFTEL: ANTANANARIVO 305 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (U) Madagascar's new Senate, reduced from 90 to 33 members, is now official. On April 25, the High Constitutional Court announced the names of the 22 senators, one for each of the 22 regions, chosen in indirect elections on April 20; all hail from the ruling TIM party. In a surprise move -- reflecting what was generally seen here as TIM overshooting its target -- President Ravalomanana chose no one officially affiliated with the TIM party in subsequently appointing the remaining 11 senators. Political observers in the President's camp are calling his nominations a new "policy of openness," but critics note that most of the 11 appointed senators are still closely aligned with the President. However, notable appointments from the opposition include: Ruffine Tsiranana (head of the PSD party and daughter of former President Philbert Tsiranana), Johanita Ndahimananjara from the AVI party, Eliane Rosa Naika (one of the founders of the dissident wing that split from TIM in 2007), and Mousa Tahiry (a former ruling AREMA party deputy and current independent). ¶2. (U) As expected, the Ministers of Decentralization and Civil Services and Labor both won senatorial seats in the election. As the new Senators cannot occupy both posts concurrently, a cabinet shuffle is expected imminently to fill their posts, and possibly to shake up several other ministries (REFTELS). ¶3. (U) The 33 senators are expected to choose the new President of the Senate on May 13 when Parliament resumes. While observers speculate current Minister of Decentralization Yvan Randriasandratriniony is Ravalomanana's favorite to take over the senate leadership, former President of the Senate Guy Rajemison and newly elected Senator Noel Rakotondrambao are also in the running. ¶4. (SBU) COMMENT: The President's appointment of moderate opposition figures will do little to appease hardline opposition leaders who call his move a "fake opening." Already, opposition Senator Tsiranana has offered to play a moderating role between the opposing parties. While the President's decision to expand his nominations beyond the TIM party is laudable, it is a low-risk move that puts nothing at stake. The long election season finally has come to a close with TIM firmly in control of the Presidency, most municipalities, the new "Regional Councils," the National Assembly, and now the Senate. "Now, it is time for development," the President asserted in his weekly Sunday evening radio address. END COMMENT. MARQUARDT