OPERATION TO TAKE BACK ANJOUAN MEETS LITTLE RESISTANCE

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000235 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU - AMBASSADOR COURVILLE DEPT FOR OPERATIONS CENTER DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, DS/IP/AF PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER PRETORIA FOR POLCOUNS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MOPS PHUM CN SUBJECT: OPERATION TO TAKE BACK ANJOUAN MEETS LITTLE RESISTANCE REF: ANTANANARIVO 230 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (SBU) Post has confirmed a force composed of Union Army soldiers and 80 to 100 Tanzanian soldiers under the African Union (AU) aegis landed on the Comoran island of Anjouan overnight from March 24 to 25 to take back the island from recalcitrant leader Colonel Mohamed Bacar. The assault began around 0500. President Sambi's office has confirmed that the forces have taken and secured the airport of Ouani, the port of Mutsamudu, the capital city Mutsamudu and the most populous town Domoni with very little resistance. Anjouan inhabitants have reported hearing explosions and the exchange of gunfire, but as of this time there are no reports of casualties or major fighting. As the National Army forces advanced, sources report both Bacar's militiamen and Island Government personnel fled. Relieved Anjouan inhabitants have reportedly wandered out of their homes to celebrate. However, the Presidency cautions the operation is "not yet over." The push to take over Bacar's headquarters, where he is thought to be hiding, is not yet underway, although sources report hearing sporadic gunshots in the vicinity. Sources speculate this final part of the assault will take place today. The Presidency emphasized their forces will attempt to take Bacar's headquarters without using heavy weapons, but this may be inevitable. ¶2. (U) Approximately 200 to 300 Sudanese soldiers remained on the staging base of Moheli as a reserve force, while another 200 Sudanese forces secured the capital city of Moroni on the island of Grande Comore. The soldiers promised by Senegal did not arrive before the operation began and are not presently expected. Tanzania is still in the process of delivering materiel to the islands via ship from Dar es Salaam. Life on the neighboring islands of Grande Comore and Moheli continues calmly as per normal; most residents there are reportedly supportive of the Union Government and its "liberation" of Anjouan. Air and sea travel to Anjouan and Moheli have been cut since March 23. It appears the Union Government also cut communication lines between the three islands in preparation for the operation. ¶3. (U) The American Citizen Warden on Moroni has heard of no problems concerning American citizens on either island and is not aware of any American citizens residing on the island of Anjouan. Post issued a warden message at 1030 today to inform American citizens in Madagascar and the Comoros of the situation. ¶4. (U) One of President Sambi's key advisors speculates the lack of resistance from government and security forces on Anjouan may have to do with President Sambi's speech delivered to the nation via television and radio on the evening of March 24. A teary-eyed President Sambi indicated that he had given the order to his military commanders to begin the military operation against Anjouan, called for calm, and urged all citizens of Anjouan to remain in their homes. Sambi also offered amnesty and reintegration into the National Army to all Anjouan soldiers who do not resist. ¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: Initial reports suggest the National Army, supported with relatively few AU soldiers, will be able to successfully take back Anjouan with little to no bloodshed. But much depends on the final push to take Bacar's headquarters and apprehend Bacar himself, which will likely unfold over the coming 24 hours. Bacar has little incentive to surrender; Union Government officials have promised to make him face Comoran courts for treason, usurpation of power, torture and war crimes, as documented by complaints filed by Anjouanese victims. They have also threatened to make him face international criminal courts. ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED: The successful take back of Anjouan would help restore the credibility of the Union Government and the AU after months of heavy criticism for their inability to reign in Bacar. If the operation is successful, the Union Government has promised to install a transitional government on Anjouan, which will organize new island presidential elections in May. END COMMENT. MARQUARDT