ISLANDS TENSELY AWAIT MILITARY ACTION

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000179

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SENSITIVE
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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS KDEM PHUM PINR CN
SUBJECT: ISLANDS TENSELY AWAIT MILITARY ACTION

REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 157 AND PREVIOUS


1. (U) The three islands in the Union of the Comoros tensely await
impending military action. African Union (AU) Representative Mourad
Taiati told international reporters in Moroni on March 4 that,
"Today, everyone has taken our [AU] position. [Mohamed Bacar] is
isolated and the military operation is an accomplished fact." He
explained that a "final planning meeting" will be held on March 8 in
Dar-es-Salaam to discuss the assembling of troops and logistical
support from Tanzania, Senegal, Sudan and Libya "under the AU
banner." He said French transport will be used for some 200
Tanzanian AU soldiers already in the Comoros since mid-2007, while
additional AU troops ready to support the Comoran Union Army "should
arrive within the next few days." [NOTE: Embassy sources report the
French have only agreed to transport AU soldiers between the islands
of Grande Comore and Moheli, not to Anjouan. END NOTE.]


2. (SBU) Media sources report, and sources on the ground confirm, a
ship scheduled to supply fuel and food to Union Army soldiers poised
for action at the staging base on Moheli was destroyed by a fire in
the port of Moroni in the early morning of March 2. The
circumstances surrounding the fire are unclear, but the rumor mill
in Moroni suspects supporters of former President Azali and/or
Mohamed Bacar set the boat on fire, possibly to hinder operations
against Anjouan. It is highly unlikely the Comoran gendarmes will
ever find the perpetrator, if indeed the fire was set on purpose,
but at this point the greatest casualty seems to be the morale of
Union Army soldiers in Moheli. Several sources report these young
soldiers, who have never seen combat, have endured difficult living
conditions for the past month with no clear end in sight. They
remember that soldiers captured in the last failed landing in
Anjouan in 1997 were raped in prison, and the videotaped footage was
shown on Comoran television as a warning. Bacar's men have
threatened the same treatment for Union Army soldiers who attempt a
landing on Anjouan. News of the destroyed resupply ship only
aggravated already sinking morale.


3. (U) The Comoran Foundation for Human Rights (FCDH) continues to
circulate information about the victims of Mohamed Bacar's crackdown
on opposition in Anjouan. The FCDH claims not a day goes by without
the arrival in Moheli of wounded victims fleeing Anjouan and seeking
medical treatment. FCDH's most recent report tells of a man
incapable of speaking from the blows received during his six days in
detention on Anjouan; another man arrived in Moheli with both arms
and one leg fractured after his detention.


4. (SBU) COMMENT: Given AU Representative Taiati's comment about
forces assembled under the "AU banner," it seems the AU has resolved
the question of whether AU military support will go ahead under an
official AU mandate or unofficial AU approval. END COMMENT.
CASEBEER