Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|
08ANTANANARIVO137 | 2008-02-19 11:35:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Antananarivo |
VZCZCXRO1266 OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO DE RUEHAN #0137/01 0501135 ZNR UUUUU ZZH O 191135Z FEB 08 FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0984 INFO RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC |
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000137 |
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Government of the Union of the Comoros and the Moroni diplomatic corps await South African (RSA) Foreign Minister Dlamini-Zuma's decision regarding when an international delegation might deliver an ultimatum to renegade Colonel Mohamed Bacar of Anjouan. The Union has obtained two helicopters with crews, reportedly Ukrainian, which they are assembling to use in the possible attack on Anjouan. Ministers of Senegal, Tanzania, Libya, Sudan, and the Comoros will reportedly meet February 20 in Addis Ababa to discuss the Anjouan impasse. If the Dlamini-Zuma Mission does not take place soon after that meeting, President Sambi's advisors tell us he will take unilateral action to depose Bacar and hold island elections in Anjouan. The French have issued a statement of support for the Union government; we recommend a similar statement from the Department (Septel). END SUMMARY. Waiting For Dlamini-Zuma - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2. (SBU) At a February 18 meeting hosted by the African Union in Moroni, assembled diplomats discussed next steps to peacefully resolve the Anjouan impasse before President Sambi makes good on his promise to act alone. RSA Ambassador Mabeta confirmed "100% that Dlamini-Zuma is coming," but was at pains to emphasize that "logistics," not FM Dlamini-Zuma's calendar, were holding up confirmation of a delegation to deliver an ultimatum to Anjouan rebel leader Bacar. He added that Dlamini-Zuma, "will not represent South Africa, but comes in her capacity as an AU representative." When she picks a date to come, reportedly between February 20 and 23, Dlamini-Zuma will be accompanied by AU Envoy Madeira, a French Minister (if available), a Tanzanian delegate, and a U.S. Embassy diplomat. 3. (SBU) Assembled diplomats agreed to three steps in the coming days. First, Ministers of Defense and Foreign Affairs from Senegal, Tanzania, Libya, Sudan, and the Comoros will meet February 20 in Addis Ababa. Comoran Foreign Minister Jaffar and Minister of Defense Dossar will attend. Second, FM Dlamini-Zuma will lead a delegation to Anjouan to insist Bacar step down, accept internationally-organized elections, or face the consequences. AU Ambassador Mourad suggested "some countries" would be willing to accept Bacar in exile. Third, the AU Peace and Security Council will meet to Addis Ababa February 23 or 24 to make a political decision based on Bacar's response. If Bacar remains intransigent, the diplomatic corps (and of course the Union) hopes the AU will expand the mandate to include helping Sambi depose Bacar by force. At a minimum they expect the AU will approve individual member states offering military and/or financial support for the Union of the Comoros in its action to restore the Union. Helos Delivered, Clock Ticking - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 4. (SBU) During the same week these three steps play out, Ukrainians are assembling two helicopters for the Union Army of National Development (AND) to use in an offensive against Anjouan. The two helicopters, one bright orange and the other beige, appear to be civilian rescue aircraft. Both arrived in Moroni overnight February 17 in a large cargo plane. As of February 18, their rotors and tail sections were not yet assembled. At the AU meeting, both the Senegalese AU Colonel and French Ambassador asserted it will take until at least February 25 for the helicopters to be ready and for the AND to have some training with them. Ukrainian flight and maintenance crews are operating the helicopters. The Chinese Ambassador reported that Chinese doctors running a malaria project in Moheli, where the AND is staging for its operation, have been instructed to be ready to treat Union casualties once hostilities begin. 5. (SBU) President Sambi has rattled his sword publicly, expressing dismay at being abandoned by the AU and vowing to depose Bacar by force. His advisor, Nakchamy Nailani, told EmbOff the President will not wait once he is ready. She noted that in 2007, President Sambi was disappointed with FM Dlamini-Zuma for "negotiating" with Bacar when the mission was meant to deliver a threat. Sambi reportedly has little confidence Dlamini-Zuma will be sufficiently firm this time. Conditions on Anjouan - - - - - - - - - - - 6. (SBU) A human rights NGO leader told EmbOff February 18 that Bacar's forces intimidate the population. He said arrests and ANTANANARI 00000137 002 OF 002 beatings are common, but said he had no evidence of killings or mass rapes. While Anjouanese are suffering, he said such reports are exaggerations based on the Comoran affinity for rumor and the desire to stir up anti-Bacar sentiment. AU Ambassador Mourad reported that Bacar had arrested several members of his own gendarmes and civilians, perhaps in a crackdown ahead of the expected offensive. U.S. Participation Welcome - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 7. (SBU) Union Vice President Idi Nadhoim thanked EmbOff February 19 for American efforts to resolve the Anjouan stand-off. He again expressed appreciation for A/S Frazer's recent visit to the country. VP Idi said it was a mistake that President Sambi did not accept the Secretary's invitation to come to Washington. French Condemn Bacar - - - - - - - - - - - 8. (SBU) A local newspaper headline reported February 19 that the French Foreign Ministry website posted a statement condemning Colonel Bacar; no doubt addressing Comorans' suspicions of French involvement. The article noted the United States will participate with the RSA, AU, Tanzanian, and French to deliver the ultimatum to Bacar. Septel provides a rough translation of the French text and a proposed similar U.S. statement. COMMENT: Waiting For the Last Chance - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 9. (SBU) Ambassador Mabeta's comments about Dlamini-Zuma set eyes rolling. Post shares the frustration of our diplomatic and Union colleagues over Dlamini-Zuma having postponed her arrival to an uncertain date. Despite Union rhetoric, Post sees many reasons for President Sambi to hesitate just a little longer. Even with helicopters, AND victory is far from certain. Further, any scenario for an invasion of Anjouan includes substantial casualties, including among civilians. Sambi has not rushed to this decision, but for almost a year this democratic leader has been barred from governing or even visiting almost half his people who live under Bacar's military rule in Anjouan. END COMMENT. MARQUARDT |