TURKEY RE-LAUNCHES BID TO WIN CENTRAL ASIAN HEARTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 000089 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ENRG EPET EINV KZ KG TI TX UZ, ZK, TU SUBJECT: TURKEY RE-LAUNCHES BID TO WIN CENTRAL ASIAN HEARTS AND MINDS REF: ASTANA 0004 ANKARA 00000089 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, reasons 1.4, b, d ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Turkish President Abdullah Gul is spearheading a renewed GOT effort to strengthen Turkish-Central Asian relations through visit diplomacy. Unlike Turkey's initial, post-Soviet era approach to the region, the Turks are viewing Central Asia as a partner not a patron, and offering a wide range of political and economic cooperation. The GOT is also striving for energy supply security and believes warmer relations with Central Asian leaders can create the conditions for Turkey to realize its Caspian energy objectives. While sensitive to the cultural and linguistic differences between Turks and Central Asians, GOT officials still believe "Turkic-ness" gives them a strategic advantage and a foundation for bolstering relations in the region. Shared democratic values are not necessarily a basis for strengthening ties. Turkey will patiently support its neighbors' gradual democratic development, in part by recognizing important achievements, notably in Kazakhstan, where Turkey is supporting the Kazakh OSCE chairmanship bid. The GOT does not believe its previous alignment with Western critics of human rights abuses in the region paid dividends; President Gul is preparing to warmly congratulate Uzbek President Karimov on his re-election, despite GOT recognition that the Uzbek election was undemocratic. Gul has already signaled his desire to visit Uzbekistan at the earliest opportunity. END SUMMARY. BONDING WITH CENTRAL ASIAN LEADERS -------------- ¶2. (C) Personal politics are a must for doing business in Central Asia, MFA Central Asia Head of Department Sule Gurel told us recently. Former Turkish Presidents Ozal and Demirel recognized this; so does President Gul. Former President Sezer, by contrast, was protocol-driven. When Central Asian leaders failed to make return visits to Ankara, high-level contacts decreased and relations cooled. Abdullah Gul has been willing to cast aside formalities and take the initiative to rekindle strong leader-to-leader relations. He has already visited Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan (reftel) in December 2007, and plans to travel soon to Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. �0A; TRADE, INVESTMENT AND DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE UNDERPIN TURKISH OUTREACH -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Gul primarily sees his role abroad as helping to create the positive spark need to kindle wide-ranging bilateral cooperation. Business, in particular, should be the engine driving relations, and huge trade delegations have accompanied him on his travels to the region. ¶4. (SBU) According to Gurel, head-of-state participation in Turkey-Turkmenistan and Turkey-Kazakhstan Business Council meetings was an important feature of Gul's visits to those two countries. Turkey-Turkemenistan trade is paltry at only $500 million per year. Turkey-Kazakhstan bilateral trade is valued at about $2 billion per year -- still a relatively small figure given Kazakhstan's size. The two countries are aiming for $5 billion by 2010. Gurel noted that over 140 Turkish companies operate in Kazakhstan. Most are small and medium sized enterprises, focused not just on energy and construction, but on sectors such as food processing and financial services. She emphasized the contribution these companies make to employment and to diversifying the Kazakh economy. ¶5. (SBU) To help further Turkish investment in Kazakhstan, the Turkish Chambers and Commodity Exchanges Union (TOBB) pledged to create an industrial zone there, augmenting President Gul's diplomatic outreach as it has in the Middle East and Pakistan. In addition, Turkish Defense Minister Gonul accompanied Gul to Kazakhstan, where the two sides pledged to bolster defense industries cooperation. The GOT has also sought to boost commercial ties by relaxing visa requirements. In July 2007, Turkey unilaterally exempted Tajik, Turkmen, and Uzbek citizens from visa requirements for visits to Turkey of 30 days or less. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan had already mutually abolished visa requirements with Turkey. ANKARA 00000089 002.2 OF 003 ¶6. (SBU) Along with Pakistan and Iran, Turkey is a founding member of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO),of which all Central Asian republics are members. According to Gurel, the Central Asian states particularly value ECO transport projects. The Kazakh government would like to see enhanced transport links between Istanbul and Almaty, and Kazakh President Nazarbayev committed Kazakh cargo to the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway -- the final link in a trans-Eurasian rail corridor -- during Gul's visit. ¶7. (U) The legislation creating the Turkish International Cooperation and Development Agency (TIKA) in 1992 expressly mandated the new agency to provide development assistance to neighboring countries and developing countries where Turkish is spoken. While TIKA's mandate has broadened since then, the lion's share of Turkey's $700 million 2006 official development assistance budget went to Central Asia and the Caucasus. TIKA maintains a coordination office in each Central Asian republic. CASPIAN ENERGY: GUL OFFERS TO MEDIATE AZERI-TURKMEN DISPUTE -------------- ¶8. (C) Harkening back to its role leading negotiations on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, Turkey has offered to play a leading role in developing a trans-Caspian natural gas pipeline (TCP). Gul offered to mediate the dispute between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan regarding the disputed Serdar-Kapaz gas field, which both claim in their territorial waters. Resolving this dispute could lead to an agreement between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan on Caspian Sea delimitation and pave the way for a trans-Caspian pipeline. According to Gurel, both sides viewed Gul,s proposal positively but negotiations have not yet begun. While advocating for TCP, Gul was careful not to press too hard, recognizing that Berimuhamedov must balance doing business with Russia and Europe. ¶9. (C) International Strategic Research Organization Director Sedat Laciner, who is close to Turkey's foreign policy establishment, told us he believes there has been a significant improvement in Turkmenistan's relations with Turkey and the West since Turkmen President Berdimuhamedov took office last year. But he does not believe the new president is strong enough, or has the freedom of action, to be able to appear to be defying Russia by committing Turkmen gas to Turkey and Europe -- even if Turkmenistan has ample and sufficient resources. Turkey can provide political support and guarantees to help Turkmenistan move in this direction, but can only be effective in cooperation with the United States and the EU. THE LONG VIEW ON DEMOCRACY -------------- ¶10. (C) The GOT is under no illusions about democratic shortcomings in Central Asia. Turkey is encouraging Central Asian governments to do more on democracy, Gurel told us, but does not believe Central Asian leaders will respond to pressure. She cited Uzbekistan as an example, arguing Turkey gained no benefit whatsoever from aligning itself with the West in the 2006 UNGA Third Committee resolution to condemn Uzbekistan's human rights record. Turkey-Uzbek relations -- already fragile over the presence of Uzbek opposition figures in Turkey and the closure of Turkish-run schools in Uzbekistan -- further soured. In a bid to shore up Turkey's ties with the government of Central Asia's most populous nation, Gurel said President Gul is preparing to send a warm, congratulatory message to Uzbek President Karimov on his recent re-election, and hopes to receive an invitation to visit Tashkent soon. While conceding the Uzbek election was deeply flawed, she convey no uneasiness with the prospect of President Gul being among the very first world leaders to visit Karimov after his widely criticized re-election. ¶11. (C) The democratic situation in Central Asia is uneven, and not all bad, Gurel emphasized. Citing Kazakh FM Tazhin's November 29, 2007 speech to the OSCE Ministerial in Madrid, she said the Kazakh government has made strong and important democratic commitments, including to press freedom, free elections, political party liberalization, and religious freedom. Turkey strongly supports Kazakhstan's bid to chair the OSCE in 2009. ANKARA 00000089 003.2 OF 003 A TURKIC COMMONWEALTH? -------------- ¶12. (C) Improving Turkey's relations with Turkic states and communities is a key foreign policy component of the ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party's government action plan. While respecting the cultural differences between Turkish and Central Asian Turks, the GOT believes shared ethnicity and cultural values still form a basis for developing political alliances in the region. One way the GOT has sought to advance this agenda is by reinvigorating the intergovernmental Turkic Summit, which Turkey founded in ¶1992. Turkey would like to institutionalize the summit and create a permanent secretariat for the grouping in Istanbul. After a hiatus from 2002 to 2005, Turkey hosted the event in November 2006, but the Kazakh and Kyrgyz presidents were the only Central Asian leaders to attend. Uzbek President Karimov's last minute cancellation, following Turkey's UNGA Third Committee vote, was a stinging disappointment for Turkey. Baku is hosting the next summit this spring, and the GOT is hoping for a strong Central Asian turn-out. Gurel told us the GOT has asked Kazakh President Nazarbayev to intervene with President Karimov to encourage his participation. ¶13. (C) The GOT views Nazarbayev in particular as a strong ally on this issue. Gurel noted Nazarbayev was the first foreign leader to visit President Gul in Ankara following his election last year -- a meaningful gesture for Turks. Sedat Laciner believes Nazarbayev is a strong admirer of Turkey's western integration and democracy, and sees Kazakhstan's Turkic heritage as a means of strengthening his country's sense of nationhood. Yet he cautioned that Nazarbayev, like other leaders in the region, has to be mindful of Russian relations and will tread carefully in "turcofying" his country. ¶14. (C) According to Laciner, the vast network of Fetullah Gulenist schools operating throughout Central Asia -- and now other regions of the world -- are also deepening Turkish-Central Asian relations. While emphasizing the schools provide a secular education, he said they offer a Turkish environment and help convey an "Anatolian Islamic understanding." In Laciner's view, Islam is an important part of Central Asian identity, and reminded us that Islam came to Turkey from Central Asia. The principal schools of Islamic thought that have influenced Turkish Islam were Central Asian, and there are strong similarities in the religious practice of the Turkish and Central Asian peoples. For Laciner, this constitutes an important opportunity -- an alternative, moderate Islamic understanding expanding across a large part of the Islamic world. COMMENT: THE GUL SUPRA-FOREIGN MINISTRY -------------- ¶15. (C) Since taking office in August 2007, President Gul has blazed a trail across the Caucasus and Central Asia, to Pakistan, and, most recently, on to Washington. His energy seems to leave MFA diplomats breathless. But President Gul, PM Erdogan and FM Babacan do not appear to be operating at cross-purposes, despite media efforts to exploit any hint of space between them. Gul's visits to date have reinforced well-established AKP foreign policy priorities, notably in Central Asia. As a former politician and FM, he is uniquely suited to advancing GOT objectives in regions where personal connections count. According to Gurel, the operational relations between MFA and the presidency are equally smooth. Gul has an exceptionally large, experienced foreign policy staff, hand-picked from MFA. As the former FM, MFA staff know his style. If we've heard one complaint, it is that Gul's -- and Erdogan's -- frequent international travel has meant Babacan does not spend much time in the Ministry in Ankara, leaving some key issues unattended to. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey WILSON