TURKEY: OPPOSITION TO DIALOGUE WITH KRG SLOWLY

S E C R E T ANKARA 000087 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT. FOR EUR/SE AND NEA/I E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2028 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER TU IZ SUBJECT: TURKEY: OPPOSITION TO DIALOGUE WITH KRG SLOWLY DIMINISHING? REF: A. BAGHDAD 67 ¶B. BAGHDAD 106 Classified By: PolCouns Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (S) Repeated and ongoing efforts to convince the GOT to engage directly with Iraqi Kurds, beginning with President Talabani and eventually include Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) officials, appear gradually to be gaining traction. GOT Deputy Iraq Coordinator Murat Ozcelik (please protect) is increasingly optimistic that opposition to openly starting such a direct dialogue is beginning to wane. While initial GOT outreach to KRG officials via intelligence channels in mid-December was reportedly well received by the Iraqis, that effort was effectively negated by large-scale airstrikes against PKK targets located deep inside northern Iraq by the Turkish military on December 16. Ozcelik lamented at the time that senior GOT officials seemed solely focused on the need for a military response to PKK terrorism. ¶2. (S) According to Ozcelik, President Gul used the last meeting of the National Security Council on December 28 to make clear the need for the GOT to begin engaging with the GOI "from top to bottom." Gul also went out of his way at the meeting to say he wanted to hear from backbench MFA officials not sitting at the main table about how they think Turkey should be moving forward in approaching the Iraqis and the KRG. Ozcelik characterized the meeting as "the best he has attended or heard about" from the standpoint of the GOT's Iraq policy and an openness to fundamentally changing the character of the Turkey-Iraq relationship. Most striking from Ozcelik's point of view was Chief of Defense General Buyukanit's remark that "if Turkey wants to see a unified Iraq, the country will need cement, and that cement is the United States," underscoring the need for the GOT to work closely with us on Iraq beyond the narrow scope of military/intelligence cooperation. ¶3. (S) COMMENT: Ozcelik has been the most active and vocal proponent in MFA for moving forward in a constructive manner to forge a new relationship between Turkey and Iraq, as well as with Iraqi Kurds. He recognizes his conviction in this regard has not been broadly shared by other policy actors, though he has always viewed President Gul as the figure most likely to push the envelope. Ozcelik's newly-found optimism is an indication that he believes others are gradually catching on. His positive assessment of how Gul is starting to drive the NSC train, long moribund under former President Sezer who lacked the requisite political skills, is also encouraging. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey WILSON