TURKEY-IRAQ: SPRING WEATHER BRINGS UPSWING IN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000825

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2028
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS PTER IZ TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY-IRAQ: SPRING WEATHER BRINGS UPSWING IN
ANTI-PKK OPERATIONS ON BOTH SIDES OF BORDER

REF: ANKARA 0778

Classified By: AMBASSADOR ROSS WILSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D).


1. (S) Summary: Turkish security operations against PKK
terrorists in Turkey and in northern Iraq have increased with
the onset of spring. Meanwhile, clashes within Turkey have
occurred as far north as Kars and have claimed up to eleven
Turkish dead this month. Turkish forces conducted the
largest cross-border military attacks this year with multiple
air strikes and artillery fire on April 25 and 26 against up
to 260 targets in northern Iraq. Although Turkish forces do
not appear poised for a ground incursion into northern Iraq,
DCHOD Gen Ergin Saygun told us April 22 that short-notice hot
pursuit operations against targets of opportunity remain
likely. Turkey continues to pre-notify us of their
cross-border operations in sufficient time to de-conflict
battle space. End summary

Cross-Border Activity
--------------


2. (S) For the first three weeks of April, Turkish
cross-border operations against terrorist targets in northern
Iraq, including five artillery attacks and four air strikes,
were relatively small, close to the border, and not trumpeted
in the media. Tactical targets included PKK encampments in
the border region, which were struck to prevent or disrupt
infiltration and planned attacks in Turkey. The Turks have
paid less attention to deeper targets, such as PKK
headquarters facilities in Qandil, since the weather turned.
Back-to-back cross-border air strikes late on April 25 and
early on April 26, however, were the largest this year,
involving up to 43 aircraft against as many as 260 targets in
the Zap-Metina, Avi Shin, Hakurk, and Gara regions of
northern Iraq. In between the two runs, there was sustained
artillery fire at the same areas. The Ankara Coordination
Directorate (ACD -- in our Office of Defense Cooperation),
was notified of all these actions in sufficient time to
permit de-confliction of air and ground battle space.
Turkish officials have promised to provide us information on
precise targets struck and damage assessment.


3. (C) In contrast to limited public reporting on earlier
strikes, the TGS announced on April 29 that 43 sorties had
struck 73 PKK shelters, 14 caves, 8 air defense locations, 7
communications nodes, and 9 storage depots during the April
25-26 operations, killing a number of PKK terrorists. The
TGS report was accompanied by video footage of the air
strikes.


4. (S) Spring conditions along the mountainous border region
have allowed for more PKK movement and have thus made more
targets available. Snow is no longer a factor. PKK
terrorists are using spring foliage in the region, although
sparse, to camouflage their movements. Increasing accuracy
of artillery and air attacks has forced the PKK to change its
tactics; terrorists now move in smaller groups of 2-5,
communicate less frequently, and in general observe greater
operational security measures than in the past. Among high
value targets are local PKK leaders, when they can be
identified, including a Turkish Army deserter who now
reportedly fights with the terrorists.

Increasing Ops Tempo in Southeast
--------------


5. (U) Meanwhile, violence within Turkey is increasing as the
military continues its robust counterinsurgency tempo and PKK
militants become more mobile due to better weather. The
Turkish General Staff (TGS) in March extended travel
restrictions in six designated security zones in Sirnak,
Hakkari, and Siirt Provinces that were originally established
last summer. While Turkish forces continue to actively
patrol along the Iraqi border near PKK infiltration routes
used in the past, the military has launched offensive
anti-PKK campaigns much further north in Bingol and Kars
provinces.


6. (C) PKK terrorists may be gearing up for their usual
spring offensive. The TGS has reported several incidents this

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month outside the PKK,s recent area of operations. Clashes
spanned from Kars province on the border with Armenia to
Giresun and Tokat provinces along the Black Sea and to Hatay
along the Syrian border. Turkish security forces also claim
to have interdicted several PKK plots against civilian
targets, including a planned attack against a police station
in Diyarbakir and an attempted bombing of a gas station in
Adana on March 1, according to the Turkish National Police.
TGS reported apprehending two PKK members in Istanbul
province in March. The PKK -- grounded in Marxist-Leninist
ideology - is also reportedly encouraging members to
commemorate May 1 with uprisings across Turkey.


7. (C) According to official TGS figures, eleven Turkish
security personnel were killed this month and another 21
wounded, with most of the casualties occurring during the
last two weeks. The TGS reports over 30 security force
deaths so far this year. There were 97 officially reported
encounters with the PKK from the beginning of April through
25 April, compared to 73 in March and only 40 in February. A
clash this month in Sirnak killed one Turkish security force
member and wounded seven others, while a PKK landmine in
Semdinli killed three Turkish soldiers and wounded another.
Three civilians were injured April 17 by a mine in Hakkari
province, bringing civilian casualties for the year to date
up to 11 killed and 52 wounded.

Assessment
--------------


8. (S) At this time, Turkish ground forces do not appear
poised for a major land incursion into northern Iraq.
However, DCHOD Gen Ergin Saygun told us April 22 that
short-notice hot pursuit operations into northern Iraq
against targets of opportunity are likely in the coming
weeks. Spring weather and full foliage conditions permit
increased PKK mobility and Turkish forces will likely
continue to try to interdict and disrupt groups of PKK
terrorists seeking to enter Turkey from Iraq.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey

WILSON